An athlete came to see me once, looking to get something off their chest – something that had been bothering them. The back story was they had entered the New York marathon, planned meticulously and for a year their life was geared towards this.
They did everything right from the moment they got there until the start of the race when they were composed, in the shape of their life and ready to go for the best time they had run.
The problem is that thousands of people want to run that marathon and a large bottleneck forms at the start and takes about four or five minutes to clear, as runners filter. As it was loosening out, this athlete became anxious at losing time and decided to make it up immediately.
Having disrupted their planned pace, they arrived at 23 miles reduced to walking and in the end, couldn’t finish. They were beaten from the start and it was psychological, not physical.
You look at Dublin at the moment and wonder what is happening. I remember when we were champions in 2013, the county board decided to schedule club matches after I had requested a moratorium out of concern for injuries.
Anyway I was put in my box and after a clear run to the opening match against Tyrone – who we always seemed to be playing – which we won well, the club fixtures started and the players were literally beating each other up. Inevitably there were injuries and also reduced time for tactical work.
We just about got over Down but I knew going into the final against Monaghan that they would have to play poorly and we would have to be near our best if we were to win. They didn’t, we weren’t and we lost, partly because we didn’t believe we could win.
Look at these two cases from the perspective of where Dublin are at the moment. What’s going on with the champions? Is it a physical thing? Did the issue with the Covid breach impact on their training? Maybe they’re physically not at the level they need to be.
Is it psychological? Six in a row, going for seven – and then, are we expected to do eight? Leadership – is there a vacuum in Stephen Cluxton’s absence? Maybe it’s as simple as there being nothing left to prove.
Phenomenal players like Jack McCaffrey and Paul Mannion have left, simply because they don't want to play anymore.
All of these issues are there and people are trying to work them out as we approach this critical moment when the All-Ireland finalists will emerge over next weekend.
Kerry have been installed as favourites but for me, Mayo hold the key to where Sam Maguire will rest this autumn.
While Dublin wrestle with their issues, James Horan will have had three weeks to prepare for the match. He has a reinvigorated team. Mayo are dynamic, powerful, fast and aggressive. Motivation and confidence aren't a problem. They always ask questions of Dublin. For the very first time since their glittering run started we are starting to see Dublin under pressure, chinks in the armour and a wobble in their form. Can Mayo bring all their developing advantages and exploit this?
If that happens and they face Kerry in the final – I’m not disrespecting Tyrone here and will discuss their semi-final in more detail next week. I simply believe this is the more likely outcome – I don’t see Mayo winning that final.
If Dublin do win, they’re a different animal. They would have momentum and the reassurance of having seen off a serious challenge and as a result all the doubts from the Leinster campaign would be swept away.
In those circumstances, I’m no longer as confident about who wins.
Remember Kerry are a very young team and yet to win an All-Ireland. They're still climbing a hill but Dublin have been on top of it for a long time. That's a different challenge for Peter Keane and his team. The reality is that you're never over that hill until you've actually climbed it.
The conclusion of the provincial championships has handed us All-Ireland semi-finals with momentous implications. For the seventh successive year, Dublin, Mayo, Kerry and Tyrone will supply the All-Ireland finalists and for the eighth time in those years Dublin face Mayo but with more uncertainty surrounding the outcome than for a long time.
Unlike last year I believe that the best teams in Connacht, Munster, Ulster and Leinster are provincial champions. They all believe they can win and I include Tyrone in that because they will always believe they can bring it and they themselves have contested a recent final.
That puts us at a potentially critical juncture not just for this era but for the history of the game. There’s a chapter to be written over the next three matches but can anyone be sure of the exact narrative? The magnitude of what may be about to unfold only adds to the intrigue.
It won’t be too far from Mayo’s thoughts that if the Dublin walls are to come tumbling down in the coming weeks, they would like to be the ones blasting the trumpets and entering the history books as the county that stopped an empire. That’s an extraordinary motivation to have driving any team.
What Mayo bring and how Dublin resist will be momentous in how this chapter is written and who ends up in the final will determine football history.
The coming All-Ireland semi-finals are just one of those moments in football and you can sense everyone leaning forward in their seats to get as close as possible to what’s about to unfold.
