I believed Waterford would win before both of the league final matches and that’s still my instinct. There’s so little between the teams that it could obviously go either way and I’m not sure if I’m being guided by logic or simply stubbornness at this stage, but Waterford were for me the better team on both days.

They could play a few times and get different results, all by small margins, but if you were to ignore the scoreline and ask people to vote for who shaded the overall play – and I know that’s not how sport works! – they would say Waterford.

The narrative behind Clare being favourites looks to me to be based on the idea that Waterford have difficulty beating them and also that John Conlon is back in the mix, with the advantage his ball- winning and strength in possession brings to the team. Goals make a difference in matches and he adds to the goal threat.

I accept the argument that isn’t a great indicator for a team to play better and yet lose , but look at it this way: if referee Diarmuid Kirwan had made the right call to give Jamie Barron a free, Waterford would have had a good chance to go two ahead and the game would have been over. Instead, Clare got the free and equalised.

Derailed

Before the Cork-Tipp game I made the point that Tipperary could actually lose without derailing their season. That didn’t happen but the same is true of this weekend. Neither of these teams is going to be derailed if they have to go through the qualifiers – although if Dublin were to throw Kilkenny into the draw, views on that might change.

I’m really looking forward to it even if it’s probably going to be a bit more like the first day of the league final rather than the replay in terms of the caution. Still, the players’ touch should be better, as it was on the second day, and with warm weather it will be easier to take scores from farther out the field.

There will be another huge battle in the middle third, where the last day Tony Kelly did the damage. He was the best player on view and Waterford have to find a way of dealing with him. Philip Mahony was tasked with this demanding role last month.

I’d change the marker and put Austin Gleeson on him. He was superb the last day and doesn’t mind where he plays and he’s also capable of staying with Kelly on his travels. It would be a good education and a significant test for Gleeson to be handed that level of responsibility and would stand a chance of limiting Kelly’s influence.

Waterford’s half backs in general need to tighten up, as that’s where Clare got a foothold and appeared to have the edge when the game got stretched in the later stages. If they could restrict movement there, they have in Barron and Colin Dunford players who are very good at that congested, middle-third combat.

I still believe that Waterford would be effectively better off pushing players forward, even if they want to hold the sweeper formation.

Quicker movement

The job they ask Patrick Curran and Shane Bennett to do up front is a much harder task for young players than it is for the likes of John Conlon at the other end, but they have the players to adapt the system to allow quicker movement of the ball into a better-manned attack.

I suspect Derek McGrath knows that Waterford need a greater threat going forward and his ability to make a success of that adaptation will define his championship.

The added problem is that Clare’s defence is very good and Cian Dillon has been doing a superb job as the free man at the back, but if Waterford could switch between six and seven defenders and use the spare man higher up that would create more pressure on Dillon.

In Tadhg de Búrca, Waterford have the definitive sweeper and even if his distribution wasn’t great the last day he knows when to move and when to fall back. It’s not always easy to distribute ball in the Waterford system and they need to play farther up the field at times which can ease that pressure.

I’m agnostic about how teams play in the sense of how it looks to spectators but to win an All-Ireland a team needs goals and although Waterford got a couple the last day, one was a gift and the occasional goal won’t win titles in September. As things stand, Clare are more adaptable and it would be interesting to see if Waterford could change things around.

Hit their stride

I don’t think any returning players are going to make a huge difference in three weeks. Once both teams hit their stride and found their touch in the replay neither was holding back – look at the antics on the sideline.

Clare have now added a league title to the All-Ireland and look to be back to the energy levels they had in 2013. This is particularly evident in the work of Podge Collins, Kelly and Colm Galvin, even if he was below par in the league finals.

My view remains though that Waterford’s younger players remain underestimated and the likely return of Pauric Mahony’s formidable free-taking is also significant.

The team as a whole will be hurting after last month’s marginal defeat, making McGrath’s task of motivating them straightforward.

There won’t be much in it but Waterford have the potential to make sure that they don’t leave the result behind them on this occasion.