“You can talk to a fade, but a hook won’t listen,” Lee Trevino once said, and Rory McIlroy’s unfortunate dose of the “lefts” has not helped his underwhelming PGA Tour season so far.
McIlroy is still second in the Official World Golf Rankings, aided by the fact LIV’s Jon Rahm cannot earn any points, and will have been pleased by a strong start to the calendar year that saw him finish first and second on the DP World Tour in successive tournaments in Dubai.
But that form has not translated to US soil this season, with a best finish of just tied 19th. It is his longest stretch without a top 10 since the summer of 2020, a testament to his consistency, but also long enough to be a cause for concern at a time in the season when he should be peaking before the Masters.
Looking back at his DP World Tour victories, even in winning there were flaws the Northern Irishman has failed to iron out since returning stateside. McIlroy led Tommy Fleetwood by one stroke on the final hole in the Dubai Invitational before a big hook off the tee on 18 led to a bogey and second place after Fleetwood birdied.
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In the final round of the Dubai Desert Classic, McIlroy took a three-shot lead in the final round by the 13th hole, before another big hook led to a bogey on the par-five. He won by a stroke in the end, but left it closer than he would have liked.
Only a month ago, McIlroy went to the Genesis Invitational with the chance of going to world number one with a win. He is now 4½ points behind Scottie Scheffler after the American won at Bay Hill and Sawgrass back to back.
Among Scheffler’s many impressive statistics this season, including that all 27 of his rounds have been under par, is that he has only had one double bogey all season. McIlroy, meanwhile, had three double bogeys at the Players Championship alone. It made it six double bogeys for the season, with three triple bogeys and a quadruple bogey, in only seven tournaments.
Despite some wild drives, McIlroy will be satisfied with his driver overall, always one of the strengths of his game. He is fourth in ‘strokes gained: off the tee’, second in driving distance at 313 yards and 43rd in driving accuracy at 63.91 per cent – impressive for such a long driver.
Rather than his often-critiqued putting, where McIlroy’s game falls off badly this year is his approaches to the green with his irons and wedges.
None more so than in the third round of the Cognizant Classic when he got within two shots of the lead. With an iron from 170 yards at the 16th hole at PGA National, McIlroy pushed it right into the water from the middle of the fairway, leading to a triple bogey, all but ending his chances of winning the tournament.
After five PGA Tour tournaments, the 34-year-old is 123rd in ‘strokes gained: approach the green’, losing strokes to the field on his approaches. For context, in 15 years on the PGA Tour, he has never been worse than 60th by the end of the year. His average position is 30th, and he was eighth last year. His best was second behind Tiger Woods in 2012, a year when he won a Major.
Scheffler, unsurprisingly, leads the stat on the PGA Tour, with Shane Lowry third after an impressive three-week stretch in Florida. Scheffler also leads the greens in regulation at 77.78 per cent, with McIlroy at 68.13 per cent.
These stats matter when it comes to picking winners for the Masters. Augusta, while famous for his sloping greens and difficult putting, is regarded as a second shot golf course.
Last year, Rahm was fourth best on tour in ‘strokes gained: approach’, and won the Masters. The 2022 champion Scheffler was also fourth best. Matsuyama was 17th best in 2021, Dustin Johnson the same in 2020, Tiger Woods was 10th in 2019. Patrick Reed is the only Masters winner who finished the year outside the top 60 in that stat in the past 20 years. When he won in 2018, he was 74th.
After the Players Championship, McIlroy said: “I think it’s swing related. My misses last week [in Bay Hill] were predominantly to the left. So I really tried to eradicate that [in Sawgrass] and, for the most part with the irons, I did. But [then] started to get a left miss off the tee.
“Golf is a very fickle game. it gives you one thing and then takes away something else from you. It’s just, again, like, I feel I’ve got all the components there but just trying to put them all together on a given week, that’s the tricky part at the minute.”
The fickleness of golf can work in a positive sense, one tip or adjustment, a good range session and something can click. McIlroy has a two-week break now, before he tunes up for the Masters at the Texas Open. Time is running out for it to click, or that elusive Green Jacket will once again remain out of reach.
PGA Tour statistics this season
SG: Off the Tee
Scheffler +0.986
McIlroy +0.938
Lowry +0.273
SG: Approach the Green
Scheffler +1.268
Lowry +0.928
McIlroy -0.176
SG: Around the Green
Scheffler +0.592
Lowry +0.135
McIlroy -0.189
SG: Putting
McIlroy +0.036
Scheffler -0.006
Lowry -0.012
Scoring Average
Scheffler 69.29
Lowry 70.42
McIlroy 71.04
Money earned
Scheffler $10,939,500
Lowry $2,115,496
McIlroy $798,205
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