RUGBY: The extended farewell to Lansdowne Road is officially billed as the Guinness Autumn series. Hereabouts, we like to take some licence with the seasons by deeming them autumnal games.

But come 4pm tomorrow at the old ground, it will be decidedly what it is: wintry. Not the most sheltered ground on planet earth, it probably won't be too pleasant for the players either.

Wet, with a gale, is the forecast. In the circumstances, it could be more a day for rugs and hipflasks filled with the team's official spirit, Bushmills. One from the scrapbooks, if the forecast holds true the conditions will evoke memories of Ireland's win here four years ago, an aquaplaning 18-9 victory courtesy of Ronan O'Gara's masterful right boot which seems to have left a mental scar or two on the Australian psyche.

The theory goes that Australia often struggle against Ireland, and that Irish teams have traditionally prospered more against the Wallabies than the All Blacks or the Springboks. Whereas Irish sides tend to carry more belief into meetings with the Wallabies, the latter supposedly struggle to dislike Irish sides as much as others. But these things are relative. They don't like us that much.

To put this theory in context, Ireland have never beaten the All Blacks and last week was only their third win over the Springboks.

While Ireland do have seven wins over Australia potmarking the record books, and the Wallabies have had a couple of almighty, memorable scares in the 1991 and 2003 World Cups along the way, closer examination of the head-to-heads shows Ireland have actually only won one of the last 16 contests.

Uneasily weighs the mantle of favouritism, and as this latest instalment looms, it becomes clearer that the Wallabies are especially strong in areas where Ireland exposed the Boks last week. Indeed, they appear two somewhat similarly endowed teams; strong, very influential lineouts, unexceptional scrums, talented backlines with each side endeavouring to develop more heads-up, less structured games.

In the last year the Wallabies have employed a former schoolteacher, Peter Collins, who has worked with Australian politicians and more latterly with CEOs in the business community, as a motivational speaker.

It's assuredly an accurate reflection of how the Wallabies' think tank have billed tomorrow's third Test of their four-Test tour against Ireland that Collins has been flown in especially for this game.

The restoration of Stephen Larkham is perhaps the Wallabies' biggest single statement of intent. Although not the world's most renowned kicking half, he has no peers when it comes to creating space for those around him and his vast experience is assuredly more suited to the conditions than Mat Rogers limited game time at outhalf. Recalling how Larkham picked Ireland apart in Perth last June, the salient reminder of defensive Irish flaws last week, getting their spacing right and atoning for missed first-up tackles, may be no bad thing.

Much has been made of the midfield monoliths, Stirling Mortlock and Lote Tuqiri, in Australia's redesigned central combination. Big, bruisingly hard runners with the ball and big-hitting tacklers, each weighs 100kg or over, and the dynamic Irish midfield pairing of Gordon D'Arcy and Brian O'Driscoll are conceding almost a stone each. Thankfully though, this is a rugby match, not a weightlifting contest and the Irish duo are peerless as auxiliary flankers at the breakdown.

First and foremost the midfield battle will hinge on the quality of their possession. The lineout has been a consistent area of strength for Ireland in recent years, but as forwards coach Niall O'Donovan admitted yesterday, in the last three defeats to Australia, they have been the one thorn in the Irish throw. Wednesday's A game revived that memory.

In Perth, last June, particularly, that went a long way towards undermining Ireland's chances. On a day when the maul is liable to be the key source of go-forward ball, the lineout could be even more of a key battleground tomorrow and given home advantage, more experience of these conditions and the absence of Daniel Vickerman, one can reasonably anticipate Rory Best hitting Donncha O'Callaghan and Paul O'Connell accurately.

Hooker Brendan Cannon had to withdraw last night with a neck strain, and his absence might work to Ireland's advantage. Tai McIssac has a good arm, as you'd expect from a former Australian water polo representative who only took up rugby at 22, but on his first Northern Hemisphere tour he lacks the experience of the 42-times capped Cannon.

Lower to the ground than the comparatively lumbering Boks' forwards, Phil Waugh and co will assuredly provide Ireland with a tougher test at the breakdown. But if it does develop into trench warfare, Ireland have the Munster dogs of war and the feisty Neil Best to get down and dirty, and with David Wallace leading the way, can make the hard yards that will inevitably be required.

Eddie O'Sullivan's nod to "rotation" should not unduly weaken Ireland's hand, and in his intriguing battle with the gifted, nuggety Matt Giteau, Isaac Boss' sniping threat could even be more suited to the demands of the day.

It may not, alas, be the ideal day for Geordan Murphy and Denis Hickie to be recalled, nor indeed for the belated re-instatement of the fab five outside O'Gara for only the second time in harness, but greater familiarity with the conditions, and the excellence of O'Gara's kicking game might also tilt the balance Ireland's way.

Then, if as seems highly probable it comes to a tight finish, an Irish bench with 335 caps ought to have enough impact and savvy game for a close endgame, whether it be Marcus Horan's ball-carrying, Peter Stringer's ability to give his old mate more space or Girvan Dempsey's secure presence at the back.

It may not be pretty, it may well be tight, but most of all though, for a variety of reasons, Ireland weren't able to give Australia their best shot in the last couple of meetings. You sense they're due to this time.

Overall head-to-head: Played 25, Ireland seven wins, Australia 18 wins.

Last five meetings: 2002 - Ireland 18 Australia 9 (Dublin); 2003 - Australia 45 Ireland 16 (Perth); 2003 - Australia 17 Ireland 16 (Melbourne WC); 2005 - Ireland 14 Australia 30 (Dublin). 2006 - Australia 37 Ireland 15.

Biggest wins: Ireland - 27-12 in 1979 (Brisbane); Australia - 46-10 in 1999 (Brisbane).

Last five games: Ireland - 28-24 v England (a); 23-34 v New Zealand (a); 17-27 v New Zealand (a); 15-37 v Australia (a); 32-15 v South Africa (h). Australia - 20-18 v South Africa (h), 27-34 v New Zealand (a); 16-24 v South Africa (a); 29-29 v Wales (a); 25-18 v Italy (a).

Betting (Paddy Power): 8/15 Ireland, 20/1 Draw, 6/4 Australia. Handicap odds (= Australia +5pts) 10/11 Ireland, 22/1 Draw, 10/11 Australia.

Forecast: Ireland to win.