Ireland unlikely to abdicate Crown

RUGBY: Follow that? The manner in which Ireland clinically maintained their focus, accuracy and ambition against England was…

RUGBY:Follow that? The manner in which Ireland clinically maintained their focus, accuracy and ambition against England was akin to the All Blacks.

Brilliantly ruthless, it showed a new side to this team. Repeating that level of performance would make the comparison even more apt, and that was what Eddie O'Sullivan had in mind yesterday when he said Ireland "had a lot to prove" in Murrayfield today.

Where two weeks ago Ireland revelled in a monumental sense of occasion, against the country that most readily motivates any Irish sportsperson, and were coming off a heartbreaking defeat to France, while the Munster contingent also had a whiff of cordite from the Leicester defeat in Thomond Park, now the wounds that need soothing are all Scotland's, and they are mostly self-inflicted. All in all, 1.30pm in Murrayfield will be a far cry from 5.30pm in Croke Park.

Now, in a sense, Ireland have to be true to themselves and show that their performance against England was not a one-off - however much the occasion was a once-in-a-lifetime.

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"One of your goals is to try and replicate high-level performances on a game-by-game basis," commented O'Sullivan yesterday. "The performance against England was one of the best we've had in a long, long time, so you obviously set your goal out to try and do the same tomorrow.

"And it is a little more difficult. There's not the same hype about the game. But that's the challenge for the lads and for the staff: to try and do the same as we did in Croke Park."

Expectations will be inordinately high. This being a Six Nations weekend in Edinburgh, golf club sets have been de rigueur on the airport conveyor belts. In a bitingly cold wind, it almost feels dangerously like a jaunt, with scarcely an optimistic Scot to be found.

Ireland's preparations were not helped, however, by the withdrawal yesterday evening of Marcus Horan, after he picked up a calf strain in Ireland's final run-out yesterday.

A man on a mission, feeding off doubts and barbs from critics and opponents alike, like John Hayes (a viable man-of-the-match contender in two games this season) and Rory Best, Horan had been playing superbly in this campaign. His injury will be assessed after the weekend to ascertain if he will be fit to face Italy in Rome next Saturday, and in his stead Simon Best starts at loosehead, with his Ulster team-mate Bryan Young promoted to the bench.

As Best is ostensibly a specialist tighthead, and Young struggled badly in the heavy A defeat by their English counterparts, it underlines the paucity of frontrow strength in depth.

A slight cloud remains over Denis Hickie's participation but he came through yesterday's run-out without any reaction to the back spasm that ruled him out of training the day before, though Geordan Murphy remains in Edinburgh as cover.

As much as anything, Ireland's almost complete supremacy over England started with the basics, and most notably a scrum that has become significantly more stable with each passing game this season. Horan's loss is therefore unfortunate, but then again not even Ireland - despite their careful man-management and fitness - can play the same XV in every game. And if ever there was a game to take this hit it is perhaps today's.

The memory is still fresh of an inspired Paul O'Connell and co producing a Munsteresque performance in the absence of Brian O'Driscoll and Gordon D'Arcy here two years ago to subdue the Scots.

Admittedly, the Scottish pack has improved in the intervening period, and the Irish management have been lauding their defensive lineout and Scotland's record-breaking lock today, Scott Murray.

Admittedly they put it up to Ireland on a rainy and tryless day in Dublin last year, and their forwards coach George Graham has been quite bullish about their prospects this week, but that should only be grist to the mill of O'Connell and co.

Rarely inclined to play second fiddle in recent years, the Irish lineout looks as well primed as ever after the performance against England. And provided they get their basics right, there should be only one winner, given Ireland have much the more dynamic backrow in the continuing absence of some of Scotland's heavy hitters, primarily Jason White, and an infinitely more potent threat across the threequarter lines.

For sure the wounded Scots will come out with all guns blazing. Desperate times call for desperate measures, and the key for Ireland will be to reproduce the physicality in the collisions that overpowered England.

And while O'Sullivan had some sympathy for the recalled Scottish outhalf Dan Parks in being unfairly labelled a kicking outhalf, he added, "The guy can rifle the ball 60, 70 metres, so if they've got that in their locker then they're going to use it at some point. You don't have to be a rocket scientist."

However, even if Parks can earn field position for the Scots and they attack the Irish throw, even though they won't hospitably present 21 points in the opening salvoes, even though they'll hardly repeat the mistake of two weeks ago and start eschewing three-pointers inside 10 minutes, even in the kind of structured game Scotland may well desire, one cannot see Ireland granting them these opportunities. And if, or more likely when, it becomes a little loose, for all the straight running threat Rob Dewey has added to the Scottish mix, the likelier gamebreakers are Irish.

O'Sullivan was assistant coach when Ireland lost here in 2001, but he has never lost to them as head coach and there's a reason Ireland are seeking a sixth successive win over the Scots. Pound for pound, Ireland simply have the better players at the moment.

And with a forecast of possible showers but a mostly dry, cloudy and windless afternoon in Edinburgh, they will have the conditions to play the high-tempo game Scotland ought not be able to live with.

They also have a core of players who today can become the first generation of Irishmen to win three Triple Crowns.

O'Driscoll maintained yesterday this had been no part of their thinking, that such accolades are to be reflected upon in retirement. But it says something about the enviably settled nature of this team that 11 of the starting line-up will have been involved in all three campaigns over the last four years, and six will have started all nine games.

The bottom line, given a professional performance with accurate basics, the same degree of aggression as two weeks ago and a high tempo, with this backrow, the assuredness of Peter Stringer and this back line, there ought only be one winner.

Referee: Dave Pearson (England).

Head-to-head: Played 119. Scotland 61 wins, Ireland 52 wins, 5 draws, 1 abandoned.

Highest scores: Scotland 38-10 in 1997, Ireland 44-22 in 2000.

Biggest wins: Scotland 38-10 in 1997, Ireland 36-6 in 2003.

Betting (Paddy Power): 5/1 Scotland, 25/1 Draw, 1/9 Ireland. Handicap odds (= Scotland +14pts) 10/11 Scotland, 25/1 Draw, 10/11 Ireland.

Forecast: Ireland to win.