Racing News round-up: Last year's Cheltenham may have been a triumph for Ireland with six winners, but the bookmakers have started betting that Cheltenham 2004 will be a different story.
A repeat of that winning tally by Irish-trained horses this time is rated as long as 16 to 1 by the layers, who instead believe it will be a step back to the norm for the invading masses with two or three victories rated the most likely.
Cashmans opened the popular betting market yesterday and made the two- and three-winner options 7 to 2 joint-favourites.
This appears to be in line with the growing belief that the Irish team this season may not have the strength in depth of last year, which included a day two treble headed by Moscow Flyer. The Queen Mother Champion Chase winner is a hot favourite to repeat that triumph, but only four other Irish-trained horses are heading the ante-post markets on the 20 races up for grabs.
"These prices will fluctuate, obviously, but at the moment we are going on the prices as they are currently," said Cashmans spokesman Joseph Burke yesterday. One horse heading the Coral Cup market is the Pierse Hurdle winner Dromlease Express, who was 12 to 1 for Cheltenham after the weekend but is now half those odds after heavy support.
The Christy Roche-trained Martinstown came in for strong support with Coral yesterday that has seen his price shrink to 7 to 2 favourite from 5 to 1.
However, the low-key expectations for this year's festival are reflected in that a first blank Cheltenham for Ireland since the late 1980s is rated more likely, at 9 to 1, than a repeat of last season.
Cashmans bet: 9/1: no winner; 11/2: 1 winner; 7/2: 2 winners, 3 winners; 4/1: 4 winners; 8/1: 5 winners; 16/1: 6 winners; 28/1: 7 winners; 50/1: 8 winners; 100/1: 9 or more winners.
One horse prominent in the SunAlliance Chase market is the Drinmore winner Nil Desperandum, who is set to reappear at Naas next week before having his final Cheltenham warm-up in the Dr PJ Moriarty Chase at Leopardstown next month.
Nil Desperandum missed out on Christmas with a leg problem, but trainer Frances Crowley said yesterday: "In many ways he is probably better off to have missed that, and in the long-term we may be glad about it. There's not a bother on him and he is fine again. We have a lot of young horses here who came down with the bug. With them it's like children going to school when they first come into the yard: they pick up everything. It's part of growing up. But Nil Desperandum hasn't been affected."
Solerina is named in the ante-post lists for both the Champion Hurdle and the Stayers' Hurdle. Permit holder James Bowe hasn't decided which the mare will go for, but is leaning towards the AIG at Leopardstown for her next start. "At the moment it is 60-40 in favour of the AIG, but a lot will depend on the ground," said Bowe's son Michael yesterday.
Solerina last ran at Christmas over the AIG course and distance, but faded after trying to make all of the running. "If it keeps raining like it has been for the last two days, and it turns into a stamina test, I think she'll go for the AIG. If not, there is a race at Naas the day before over two-and-a-half miles," Bowe said.
"It is widely accepted her best trip is two-and-a-half, but there is no championship race at Cheltenham over that distance. She is somewhat of a replica of Limestone Lad that way. The ground will play a part in deciding about the Champion Hurdle or the Stayers'. But what is the chance of it being soft or heavy in March?"
Ruby Walsh is rated the 5 to 2 favourite to be the leading jockey at this year's Cheltenham festival. Cashmans began betting on the prestigious award yesterday and the power of Irish-based riders is indicated by last year's winner, Barry Geraghty, being ranked joint second favourite at 3 to 1 with Tony McCoy. Best Mate's rider Jim Culloty is on 8 to 1.
Jonjo O'Neill is a 9 to 4 joint favourite with Martin Pipe to be the leading trainer.
Top Jockey (Cashmans): 5/2 Ruby Walsh, 3/1 Tony McCoy, Barry Geraghty, 8/1 Jim Culloty, 10/1 Mick Fitzgerald, Liam Cooper, 12/1 Richard Johnson, 14/1 Paul Carberry, 33/1 Bar.
Top Trainer: 9/4 Jonjo O'Neill, Martin Pipe, 5/2 Paul Nicholls, 8/1 Nicky Henderson, 10/1 Edward O'Grady, 12/1 Henrietta Knight, 20/1 Bar.
