RUGBY/Celtic League/Cardiff Blues v Leinster: Leinster could be forgiven a feeling of déjà vu. For the second year running they travel to a capital city within tantalising reach of the Magners Celtic League title. Then, despite securing a bonus-point win over Edinburgh, the title was taken away from their grasp by David Humphreys' late drop goal via the woodwork. This time, at least, they have their destiny in their own hands, although the task is arguably bigger.
Leading the table by a point from the Ospreys, and three clear of Cardiff, Leinster know a win, with a bonus point, in the Arms Park this evening would keep them out of the Ospreys' reach when they travel to the Borders tomorrow. If they do succeed, it would clinch their first trophy since winning the inaugural Celtic League in 2001-02.
However, a victory without a bonus point would leave the Ospreys knowing a bonus-point win away to the Borders tomorrow would see Lynn Jones' squad emulate their success of two years ago. In that scenario, the sides would finish level but the Ospreys would be declared champions by dint of having one more win. Having lost out by a point last year, Leinster could lose out despite having a superior points differential this season.
Realistically therefore, Leinster have to win, and with a bonus point. For although the Borders will surely be fired up on their last ever outing, the sheer quality of the Ospreys squad - with Gavin Henson in line to return alongside James Hook and the on-fire Shane Williams - will help them to achieve their objective.
"We'll be playing attacking rugby, which is our mindset normally," declared coach Michael Cheika boldly yesterday. "We will be looking to impose ourselves as early as possible. Winning is the first objective and the bonus point will be the next. We might have some interesting decisions late on, but we have some plans for that in our kit bag. But all those decisions won't matter if we don't produce a performance. That comes first."
To that end, Cheika has pinpointed an aggressive start, solid set-pieces and defence, while ironing out the handling errors which blighted last week's performance to thus sharpen their finishing.
Titles, he admits, are not to be sniffed at, and "would be an important step in the evolution of the team moving into next season. We're going to have to earn it to win this title, and it's a good experience of another pressure game."
Cardiff themselves aren't out of the running, although they would need to win, most probably with a bonus point themselves, to have a realistic chance, and then also hope that the Borders deny the Ospreys a win.
Dai Young admits this is "unlikely" and has recalled Nicky Robinson at outhalf in one of six changes, with key players such as leading try scorer Tom Shanklin and Martyn Williams ruled out, although their direct replacements, the strong-running Marc Stcherbina and Robin Sowden-Taylor, also another line-out option, are no slouches.
Interestingly too, unlike Justin Marshall, Ben Blair and Xavier Rush have declined to travel to Japan to play for the Classic All Blacks, thereby doing more for the Ospreys' title chances than Marshall himself.
The presence of the trophy, in case Leinster secure the title, could also be a spur for Cardiff. "It's a massive incentive for us to go out there and win with the trophy being paraded on the side of the pitch. Although we can't win it, we can at least give ourselves a shot at doing so."
Away wins are like gold dust in this league, and nestling alongside the unnerving statistic that Leinster have won only three away matches out of 13 this season, Cardiff are seeking to equal Leinster's league record of 15 successive home wins, dating back to November 2005. Furthermore, of course, Leinster have won only once on their last seven treks to the Principality.
So the Blues' dismal showing in Llanelli last time out should perhaps be viewed in that context. Nonetheless, rather than being as friendless as they were in the Liberty Stadium a fortnight ago, Leinster will be in the unusual position of having a few hundred spectators travelling over.
It's also moderately encouraging that Malcolm Changleng will again be in charge, as he was when Leinster won away to the Dragons last month.
The nagging suspicion remains that Leinster can't buy an away win when the heat is on, and aren't playing especially well since the Six Nations hiatus, but they ought to be more motivated than on any league trek to Wales in recent years. The title is theirs for the taking, and they are the kind of team that even in a close, competitive game have the potency to score tries.
The Cardiff pack does not look especially equipped to do a number on the Leinster forwards, and Leinster's backs, even without Brian O'Driscoll but with Felipe Contepomi having completed his medical finals on Wednesday in time to travel, have the sharper cutting edge.
CARDIFF: B Blair; R Williams, J Robinson, M Stcherbina, C Czekaj; N Robinson, M Phillips; G Jenkins, G Williams, G Powell, D Jones, R Sidoli, M Lewis, R Sowden Taylor, X Rush (capt). Replacements: S Roberts, T Rhys Thomas, S Morgan, R Shellard, W Evans, N Macleod, T James.
LEINSTER: G Dempsey; R Kearney, S Horgan, G D'Arcy, D Hickie; F Contepomi (capt), C Whitaker; R Corrigan, B Jackman, W Green, T Hogan, M O'Kelly; S Keogh, K Gleeson, J Heaslip. Replacements: S Wright, B Blaney, O Finegan, C Jowitt, G Easterby, C Warner, L Fitzgerald/K Lewis.
Referee: Malcolm Changleng (SRU).
Leading try scorers: Cardiff - Tom Shanklin 6, Ben Blair, Xavier Rush 5 each; Leinster - Jamie Heaslip 7, Denis Hickie 6. Leading points scorers: Cardiff - Ben Blair 157; Leinster - Felipe Contepomi 181.
Forecast: Leinster to win, with a bonus point.
