Quarter-finals: Italy and Ukraine (apparently the latter have ditched their definite article) have had such recent contact with each other that the sweat can hardly be dry on the jerseys they swapped. The two sides met in a World Cup friendly back on June 2nd in Lausanne and, by common consent Ukraine, with Andriy Shevchenko on the bench, took more out of the scoreless draw than the Italians did.
Not long later the Ukrainians opened their World Cup campaign by getting tonked 4-0 by Spain. The Italians then dismantled the quietly fancied Czechs in their final group game. Buddy Holly was right, it goes to show you never can tell.
A few weeks later we have a better idea of each side's form, and even though Ukraine have outstayed the Spaniards it seems the Italians are justified in thinking that tonight's match is the gateway to the semi-finals.
Italian form and Marcello Lippi's tactical formations have been all over the place at this World Cup, but such unpredictability conceals a talent for getting the job done when required and a squad which has more depth to it than most here. Also, events at home appear to be bringing the Italians together with a sense of mission.
As for Ukraine, their advance this far has been surprising but not intoxicating. Having lost 4-0 in their first game they recovered to win by the same margin in their second game (with Saudi Arabia - no great, ahem, shakes), and then needed a Shevchenko penalty to dispatch Tunisia in the final group game.
In the Round of 16 they inflicted a horrible game with Switzerland upon the viewing public, winning 3-0 on penalties after a dreary, goalless draw. Unless Shevchenko decides to seize the day and shake it by the scruff of the neck, it is hard to see Ukraine scoring tonight.
All of which isn't to say that the game lacks interesting angles. The Italian progress has been fascinating and the choices facing Lippi quite intriguing. Does Francesco Totti's clinical dispatch of a last-second penalty against the luckless Aussies mean he is rehabilitated? If so, will he play behind a front two in the hole position?
Will Lippi persist with Luca Toni up front in the hope that he blossoms, as Paolo Rossi did in 1982? Early this month Lippi went for Alessandro Del Piero, Toni and Alberto Gilardino in a three-man forward line for the Lausanne friendly. Del Piero disappointed against the Aussies, however, and the smart money says Totti will play in a 4-3-1-2 formation. Failing that, Toni may play at the top of a Christmas tree (4-3-2-1) formation with Totti and Mauro Camoranesi behind him.
Lippi lined his side out this way against the Czech Republic in the group stages and it yielded the best Italian performance of the competition. Fillippo Inzaghi won't start, but can expect an introduction the first time a forward misfires.
If Italy have a worry it is the centre of their defence. Alessandro Nesta remains injured. Marco Materazzi was playing quite well before being harshly dismissed against the Australians. Andrea Barzagli is inexperienced (this would be his second start in two years), but did well when introduced the last day as a gap after Materazzi's red card. He will play alongside Fabio Cannavaro, who gave a masterclass in man-marking against Mark Viduka in Kaiserslautern. He will be asked to do the same to Shevchenko.
In midfield, Andrea Pirlo will continue as playmaker, with Gennaro Gattuso and Simone Perrotta doing the donkey work.
The Ukrainians have rather fewer riches to pick from and have lost Andriy Voronin for the rest of the tournament due to a thigh injury. In his absence, Shevchenko will get a new strike partner, probably Andriy Vorobyey. Sergei Rebrov will start in midfield having been dropped for the game with the Swiss. This will be his 75th cap.
At the back, Ukraine like to view themselves as solid (the Spain game notwithstanding, they have had clean sheets in eight of nine internationals this year), operating a three-man defence with a defensive midfielder (Anatolii Tymoschuk) playing in front of them. With Vycheslav Sviderskyy and Andriy Rusol back from suspension, it means Oleg Blockin is free to pick the same 11 that beat Saudi Arabia and Tunisia.
It all has the feel of extra-time and a later, late goal about it.
Probable line-ups
ltaly (4-3-1-2)
Buffon, Zambrotta, Cannavaro, Barzagli, Grosso; Perrotta, Pirlo, Gattuso; Totti; Toni, Gilardino.
Coach: Marcello Lippi
Ukraine (3-1-4-2)
Shovkovskyi, Nesmachnyi, Rusol, Sviderskyy, Tymoschuk, Shelayev, Gusiev, Rebrov, Kalynychenko, Vorobyey, Shevchenko.
Coach: Oleg Blochin
Referee: Frank de Bleeckere (Belgium)
Kick-off: 8pm
Venue: Hamburg
On TV: RTÉ 2, BBC 1
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