Irish Grand National Preview: Roger Loughran's Christmas present was a batch of all the wrong sort of headlines but the jockey will create a very different Easter story if Oulart comes out on top in today's Powers Whiskey Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse.
It's an unwelcome reality that Loughran's embarrassing case of "premature celebration" on board Central House at Leopardstown almost four months ago is still what the 26-year-old Kells rider is most associated with. However, it is amazing what a success in Ireland's richest steeplechase can do to change perceptions and there are plenty of reasons for believing that Oulart has it in him to do just that, despite a maximum 30-strong field guaranteeing a typically intense struggle.
Relying on a novice who has never won over fences in five previous chase starts is not normally the sort of profile one would automatically look for in a National but it is certainly not unheard of for a horse to win his first ever chase in the Easter Monday highlight. It's only six years since Commanche Court did just that and, like him, Oulart is battle-hardened from an extensive career over hurdles.
It's that hurdles experience, which includes a Pertemps success at last year's Cheltenham Festival, that helps encourage belief in Oulart whose handicap rating over the smaller obstacles is a full 11lb higher than over fences.
That makes him potentially well handicapped here and it's significant that the last of his five chase starts was the best of them, a runner-up placing to In Compliance here in February.
It was his handicap mark that ruled out a tilt at the Kim Muir or the Jewson at Cheltenham and instead Oulart tried to follow up in the Pertemps. Despite running freely, he kept on well and that same rating over fences is now paying off with an ideal 10st 1lb on his back. Oulart's versatility with ground, he won the Pertemps on good, could be crucial as the going was drying out rapidly yesterday.
The Gold Cup winning jockey Conor O'Dwyer rode in the first yesterday and reported: "I'd call it good. It's safe, but it's definitely not on the slow side." A dig in the ground is important for the long time ante-post favourite Dun Doire who will be looking for seven-in-row for the Co Meath syndicate that owns him. Wins in the Thyestes and the William Hill at Cheltenham were impressive but the 19lb hike in the weights at declaration is hardly helpful either.
"He will not like it too fast," acknowledged trainer Tony Martin yesterday. "But it seems to be safe enough and I think we'll be alright. We've done well getting Mick (Fitzgerald) and he will have no problem with the trip."
In contrast better ground will be good news for Tony McCoy's ride Far From Trouble who will bid to secure just a second Irish National for owner JP McManus, 23 years after Bit Of A Skite. "If the ground is on the good side, he has a big chance," said his trainer Christy Roche who ran the horse over four miles at Cheltenham last month. "He ran a great race at the festival but just didn't get home."
This is another National where McCoy has drawn a blank but it's a different story for the topweight Our Ben who will have Ruby Walsh, successful on Commanche Court and Numbresixvalverde last year, on his back.
Walsh exited from Our Ben at just the third fence in the SunAlliance and doesn't look the easiest of rides. The hustle and bustle of a big field like this could work either way with Our Ben but significantly he has run some bad races at Fairyhouse in the past.
It's 11 years since the last topweight managed to come out on top in the Irish National and those concentrating on the other end of the scale could do worse than examine Monterey Bay.
Frances Crowley's horse only just failed in the Kerry National last September and is the sort of free-jumping type to take well to this race.
However, conditions look like they have come right for Oulart who can deliver an emotional success for his jockey. Certainly there will be no one trying harder from the last!
BRIAN O'CONNOR'S FORECAST
1. OULART.
2. FAR FROM TROUBLE.
3. MONTEREY BAY.
4. BANASAN.
