Certainties will be scarce at Ascot on Saturday for British Champions Day but one sure thing past the line already is how so much of cross-channel racing’s climax to the season revolves around ground conditions.
Just once since the inaugural Champions Day in 2011 has the word soft not appeared in the going description. But for its 13th renewal, the Ascot authorities appear to have got very unlucky indeed.
Just as in 2019, the weather has proved such a spoilsport that three races scheduled to be run on the round course have had to be switched to an inner track usually kept for winter hurdle action.
That the switch took place at noon on Friday — 24 hours after final declarations — underlines a sense of uncertainty that has plagued the run-up to British racing’s most valuable single day’s action of the year.
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It’s hardly an unfamiliar scenario either, given how a mid- to late-October date always risks the weather exerting an undue influence, especially when Ascot can turn into a grueling stamina test.
Even the mighty Frankel had to get down and dirty when ending his magnificent unbeaten career in the 2012 Champion Stakes, so the prospect of specialist conditions always risks some of the sport’s biggest stars giving Ascot a swerve.
It’s a stark contrast to the ultra-fast going for the Arc three weeks ago while cross-channel officials could also be forgiven casting envious glances towards the dates of last month’s Irish Champions Festival.
“The going on the round course is now soft, heavy in places. Following verification from an independent panel, and agreement that will not improve before race day, the three round-course races will switch to the inner flat course.
“This is as per the race conditions which state that in the event of ‘heavy’ appearing in the going description, the races will switch to the inner flat course,” an Ascot statement said on Friday.
Although the switch will mean slightly better ground conditions for the Champion Stakes, the Filly & Mare and the Long Distance Cup, it still smacks of an unsatisfactory situation given how final fields were declared on Thursday.
The move will help Mostahdaf in the Champion Stakes but hardly the top stayer Trueshan who relishes the mud flying. Even then, there’s no guarantee Mostahdar will line up despite the horse shortening in the betting on Friday having drifted right out to 10-1 earlier this week.
“While the move does increase the chances of Mostahdaf running in the Champion Stakes, the team will still walk the course and speak to jockeys who ride the track in the Long Distance and Fillies & Mares races before a final decision is made,” said his jockey, Jim Crowley.
“If my fellow runs, I think he will take all the beating, but there is still a question mark over the ground, so we won’t know for sure about his participation until nearer race time,” he added.
If that’s as clear as mud, then the John and Thady Gosden camp is not alone in being unsure.
Dermot Weld’s desire for no extremes to allow his brilliant filly Tahiyra to line up in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes may be tested if more rain falls overnight and into Saturday. She will take on Aidan O’Brien’s Paddington up the straight mile which is already officially soft.
Paddington’s adaptability in terms of surface looks like being a major plus and it could also prove influential in a broader context.
Britain’s trainer’s championship isn’t officially decided until the end of the year. But the massive money on offer in Ascot could prove decisive as O’Brien tries to overhaul the Gosden team with a seventh cross-channel title in his sights.
The Irish man has won more than €7.1 million in prizemoney to date in Britain this season, just over €300,000 behind his rivals.
Paddington was beaten for the first time this year by Mostahdaf at York in August and O’Brien said: “We’re very happy with him. He’s had a break and he’s working lovely.”
If Point Lonsdale is a Champion Stakes outsider, O’Brien’s main hope for the Filly & Mare, Jackie Oh, looks a prime contender, as does the remarkable Kyprios who takes on Trueshan in Saturday’s opener.
Last year’s undisputed distance champion returned to action after a serious leg problem when runner-up in last month’s Irish Leger. Significant improvement is anticipated for what could be a classic Anglo-Irish head-to-head up the Ascot straight.
William Buick will be crowned champion jockey again although there’s no disputing which rider will be front and centre on Saturday.
Billing this as Frankie Dettori’s farewell to British racing doesn’t appear particularly convincing since he is already long odds-on with some firms to be back in action at Royal Ascot 2024.
Having announced his retirement U-turn with plans to ride in the US next year, doubling down on any farewell element to Dettori’s five rides on Saturday is going to be a hard sell for many.
Still, the irrepressible Italian can attract the spotlight like no one in the history of the sport and at the track where he pulled off that incomparable magnificent seven [winners] all of 27 years ago it would be typical if he was to grab the Ascot headlines once again.
Dettori teams up with King of Steel for the first time in the Champion Stakes and is aboard his Guineas winner Chaldean in the QEII. Perhaps his best chance of all though is on old ally Kinross, the horse the jockey describes as his “ATM machine” in the sprint.
