Competition, and the lack thereof, has been a recurring theme around big handicaps this season but Martin Brassil’s ability to strike a blow against racing’s big guns has already been underlined ahead of Wednesday’s €200,000 Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown.
On a programme where jump racing’s Old Firm dominate the Grade One contests, including a Willie Mullins quartet facing up to Henry de Bromhead’s Captain Guinness in the €125,000 Rewards Club Chase, Brassil is bucking the trend in the biggest pot of all.
The Curragh trainer, who saddles Fastorslow in Thursday’s Savills Chase, is responsible for Panda Boy and Desertmore House in the Paddy Power and they have dominated ante-post betting on the run-up to one of the most competitive handicap prizes of the season.
The latter has already notched a big handicap having landed September’s Kerry National, while Panda Boy has unfinished business with the Paddy Power after finishing third to Real Steel in 2022. Last year’s 33-1 winner is back again too, while Jody Ted is in the mix for Eoin Griffin.
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The egalitarian aspiration at the heart of handicaps is still under pressure in Leopardstown’s day-two festival highlight though, with Brassil & Co facing down the massed ranks of jump racing’s elite figures.
Gordon Elliott saddles nine of the 28 runners while Mullins has five. Michael O’Leary’s Gigginstown Stud has a handful of its own, including top-weight Idas Boy and Royal Thief at the other end of the scale.
In comparison, JP McManus, chasing a 10th win in the race, is almost in ‘minnow’ territory for once with his pair of hopefuls.
In contrast, the Paddy Power has proved a tricky puzzle for De Bromhead over the years, although Amirite could pull it off for him this time. Rachael Blackmore’s mount is one of four contenders for the Co Waterford trainer.
Making excuses for horses can be an expensive exercise but Amirite could be due the sort of luck that’s always required to emerge on top in one of these big handicaps.
After racing quite keenly on his last start at Cheltenham, a slipped saddle ruined his chance. Blackmore was never happy with him during last Easter’s Irish Grand National, for which Amirite started favourite, while fortune certainly didn’t favour him at this meeting a year ago.
The ill-fated Three Stripe Life jumped into him at the 11th fence of the Neville Hotels Novice Chase and bumped Blackmore out of the saddle.
Amirite hasn’t helped his chances in the past with his free-running tendencies, but it is rare for the Paddy Power to be run at anything less than a searching gallop, which should help Blackmore. He also sports a first-time tongue strap.
Captain Guinness will hardly get a better opportunity to secure an elusive top-flight prize than Wednesday. The free-going two-miler has regularly had to settle for the runner-up spot in Grade One company but his comeback victory suggests a horse that might be coming to a career peak.
Mark Walsh has opted for Dinoblue over Gentleman De Mee from the McManus pair, although it could be significant that Paul Townend has chosen the latter from the remaining Mullins trio.
Crucial to the outcome might be the impact of up to 20mm of forecast overnight rainfall on Leopardstown’s famously quick-drying steeplechase track.
Gentleman De Mee, in particular, would prefer if the impact on conditions is negligible. If he can repeat a performance like his defeat of Blue Lord here at the Dublin Racing Festival, then his rating suggests he could pick off Captain Guinness when it counts.
The Mullins team also have four in the Future Champions Novice Hurdle and Townend appears to have had little hesitation in siding with Daddy Long Legs.
The €210,000 French purchase impressed on his Irish debut at Thurles but might face much more testing conditions here. If he copes with that then Down Memory Lane and Predators Gold could struggle.
Limerick’s day-two festival programme features 2022 Grand National hero Noble Yeats, who has just a second career start over flights in a conditions hurdle. His sole previous hurdles appearance was a maiden success at Navan in 2021.
The recent Cork winner No Time To Wait might have too much boot in the circumstances for the star turn.
