The Dublin Racing Festival has the potential to turn into such an exclusive Willie Mullins weekend party that there will be an accent on who might successfully gatecrash it.
It is indisputable that Irish jump racing’s €2 million shop window occasion, which establishes much of the sport’s pecking order for Cheltenham next month, has a single overarching figure.
Statistically alone, Mullins has 31 per cent of the runners on Saturday’s card at Leopardstown. Take out its two handicaps and the sport’s dominant personality has 54 per cent of the runners. He has a quarter of Sunday’s runners, 36 per cent if the handicaps aren’t counted.
Even by the standards of how Mullins mopped up eight of the 15 festival contests a year ago and has had 38 winners in the festival’s six-year existence, he goes into this weekend with overwhelming strength in depth.
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Thirty of the 52 runners lining up in eight Grade One races are Mullins-trained and anyone hoping it’s a case of quantity rather than quality is grasping at the most delusional of straws.
If Sunday will see State Man and El Fabiolo as red-hot favourites, it’s hardly impossible that Ballyburn and Gaelic Warrior might reach odds-on status too.
Last year saw Day Two become a Mullins benefit with a 1,739/1 five-timer so those hoping for a spread of success might wind up pinning their hopes on Saturday’s action.
The sole non-Mullins Grade One favourite is Barry Connell’s Marine Nationale in the Goffs Irish Arkle. But the day’s centrepiece will be the clash of defending champion Galopin Des Champs and Fastorslow in the €250,000 Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup.
It is Round Four of a growing rivalry between a pair of horses that dominate the betting in next month’s Cheltenham Gold Cup.
If Fastorslow was under the radar when they first met, and excuses were liberally applied when he shocked his ‘Blue Riband’-winning opponent at Punchestown last Spring, there appeared to be little mitigation for how Martin Brassil’s star again got the better of the argument in November’s Durkan.
It is what has happened since that makes this race so fascinating.
Fastorslow missed the Savills over Christmas due to ground conditions. However, fears that ‘Galopin’ might be a busted flush were spectacularly dispelled with a winning display to compare with anything ever seen at Leopardstown.
Mullins’s champion went through the line 23 lengths clear of Gerri Colombe and apparently going faster than at any other point of the race. His stable companion Capodanno, third in the Savills as an unconsidered 80-1 outsider, bolstered the form by winning at Cheltenham last week.
It was a breathtaking display that if reproduced six weeks later will leave Fastorslow with a huge mountain to climb, one underlined by a whopping 12lbs difference in official ratings between the pair.
However, the Brassil runner has a gratifying habit of exceeding expectations and, although goodwill counts for nothing in the heat of competition, plenty of the public will pull for him.
Given how ‘Galopin’ put in such a gargantuan display at Christmas, the difference between the pair may not be so great as ante-post betting has suggested. Nevertheless, it’s still hard to argue against Galopin Des Champs winning this back-to-back and supplying his trainer with a 13th success in the race.
Marine Nationale’s chances of upsetting the Mullins applecart are boosted by Gaelic Warrior skipping the Arkle for the longer Ladbrokes Novice Chase on Sunday.
Instead, Barry Connell’s unbeaten star takes on Gordon Elliott’s St Stephen’s Day winner Found A Fifty as well as a Mullins trio topped by Facile Vega.
The latter chased home Marine Nationale in Cheltenham’s Supreme last season and has plenty to prove having bombed out behind Found A Fifty last time. The fact he substitutes for Gaelic Warrior, and given his trainer’s obvious and intact regard for him, could still see him shake up the favourite.
The Mullins team overall go into the weekend action in sparkling form with 40 winners in January and champion jockey Paul Townend’s own figures are impressive too.
A remarkable 14 of his last 20 rides have won so his judgement in picking from an abundance of talent shouldn’t want for confidence.
Predators Gold appears to have been a reasonably straightforward choice in the opening Nathaniel Lacy Novice Hurdle considering how the significant step up in trip from his Christmas effort at two miles should be a plus.
Townend has opted for Storm Heart in the McCann Fitzgerald Spring Juvenile Hurdle, leaving a handful of enviable ‘spares’ for other riders. If Danny Mullins can get Kargese to relax she could employ her 7lb sex allowance to maximum effect.
A setback prevented last year’s bumper champion A Dream To Share from going jumping. But it means he can attempt to pull off an unusual double by repeating his 2023 success in the Grade Two finale.
