An unscientific straw poll of some bookmakers as to what price City Of Troy would be for Saturday’s Betfred Epsom Derby were he NOT trained by Aidan O’Brien produced odds ranging up to 25/1.
It’s a divergence from the real market that underlines the Irishman’s singular status, although what it says about his apparent No. 1 ‘Blue Riband’ hope is more debatable.
Having pulled off perhaps the finest performance of his stellar career a year ago in transforming Auguste Rodin from Guineas flop to Derby hero, O’Brien is faced with having to produce a similar outcome now. Contrary to popular wisdom, lightning can strike twice, although the odds about it are a lot longer than those City Of Troy has been trading at.
Perhaps the scale of public disappointment in his abject 2,000 Guineas performance four weeks ago is in proportion to the massive expectations around a colt memorably acclaimed by connections as ‘our Frankel’. But by any measure, a two-year-old champion cutting out at halfway and trailing in only ninth was a colossal anticlimax.
It’s hard not to suspect that a lot of other trainers would still be licking their wounds after such a bitter disappointment, with Epsom not even on their radar. Except O’Brien is like no other trainer and how he has doubled down on City Of Troy, describing him as perhaps the most talented horse he’s ever sent to the Derby, is impossible to ignore.
Considering how he has won flat racing’s most coveted prize nine times it is a remarkable statement about a horse with so much to prove.
Sceptics will put it into a hard-sell context of the horse’s future potential earning power in the breeding shed. Coolmore Stud’s PR model hardly tends towards understatement. But the bottom line is that a lot of credibility has been invested in City of Troy and only the most stupidly self-assured can entirely dismiss O’Brien’s seeming cast-iron confidence in the colt.
Only Lester Piggott can equal the Irishman’s Derby record and even the legendary jockey will have to concede statistically should O’Brien emerge victorious again. However, should City Of Troy fail once more to live up to his trainer’s expectations, there’s plenty reason to believe a 10th Derby could still be within his grasp.
Los Angeles is an unbeaten Ballydoyle colt with both a Group One success at two, and an orthodox Derby Trial success at Leopardstown under his belt. The step up to a mile-and-a-half shapes as ideal and while there has been unprecedented focus on City Of Troy’s stature, or supposed lack thereof, his stable companion is a notably impressive ‘physical’.
With other orthodox claims presented by a home team including the Lingfield Trial winner Ambiente Friendly, Godolphin’s Ancient Wisdom and the French Guineas runner-up Dancing Gemini, the fact so much attention is focused on City Of Troy underlines how much is riding on O’Brien’s judgement.
In bottom line terms, for weeks the Derby betting has been dominated by a Guineas also-ran who plenty shrewd judges are convinced hasn’t trained on, and whose stamina credentials are questionable.
As if all that wasn’t enough, he must break from stall one, an inside draw from which only two winners have emerged in the last half a century. Ryan Moore faces a real test in securing an uninterrupted passage around Epsom’s rollercoaster circuit from there.
However, even with a very viable alternative in the Ballydoyle camp, Moore stays loyal to City Of Troy. Even the famously poker-faced Englishman seemed to get caught up in the tide of expectation surrounding his partner prior to the Guineas. If it ended with talk of a potential Triple Crown looking embarrassingly premature, Moore too is staying loyal.
“This is an open Derby, everyone can see that, though undoubtedly most of the focus will be on my horse. Perhaps understandably so, given how good he was last year and how he ran in the Guineas.
“We were clearly all a touch bemused by that performance at the time but hopefully Aidan has got him back to somewhere near his brilliant two-year-old best at home, and if he has then he will take all the beating.
“We always thought this trip would suit him at three, but he has to go out and prove it now, and even more so after Newmarket. But there is only one place to find out, and we are here,” Moore said to Betfair on Friday.
It leaves Ballydoyle’s No. 2 rider Wayne Lordan with a huge opportunity to strike on Los Angeles in the race that still matters more than any other. Twice before Lordan has picked up classic winning discards from Moore with both Hermosa and Winter successful in the 1,000 Guineas.
Declan McDonogh is on the Ballydoyle outsider Euphoric while Adrian Murray’s Dallas Star completes the Irish representation.
It’s a Derby that revolves around O’Brien’s faith in an enigmatic colt. The odds indicate plenty are prepared to put their own trust in that faith being vindicated. It’s hard not to suspect though that a lot of bookies will be happy to have Los Angeles running for them.
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