Strictly on handicap figures Arvika Ligeonniere is no certainty to land tomorrow’s Grade Two feature but the only statistic likely to end up counting is the one that says Willie Mullins’s top-flight performer doesn’t get beaten around
Punchestown
.
Arvika Ligeonniere has run four times around the Co Kildare track and won the lot, the last of which was the John Durkan almost two months ago. That was over two and a half miles and the horse is dropped back to the minimum distance for the Boylesports Free Wifi Tied Cottage Chase where he faces just three opponents.
They include another Grade One winner in Special Tiara as well as Rathlin whose handicap mark actually gives him a couple of pounds in hand of Arvika Ligeonniere. A case can be made for Gigginstown Stud’s other runner, Toner d’Oudairies, not being out of it either since he doesn’t have that much to make up on the likely favourite from Clonmel running back in November.
But a combination of two miles on very testing conditions, allied to going right-handed, is pretty much tailor-made for Arvika Ligeonniere.
Grade One winner
It's not that he isn't effective going left-handed. He is after all a Grade One winner at Leopardstown. But there's no ignoring how the only times he has been beaten in his last 10 starts is when he has run left.
The last of those was when third, beaten only a length and a half, behind Benefficient and Hidden Cyclone at Leopardstown over Christmas.
There are plenty who would jump at the chance of backing the Mullins horse to reverse those placings going the other way and against both Rathlin and Special Tiara, who would both prefer substantially better ground, it's hard to oppose Arvika Ligeonniere here.
It doesn’t seem to matter to Wicklow Brave which direction he goes in, and Mullins’s pick for the Listed Novice Hurdle is also likely to be a popular pick to extend his winning sequence to five.
Wicklow Brave isn't the most highly-touted of the champion trainer's novice team but he was impressive on his jumping debut at Cork on the back of three bumper victories, a profile that sees him a general 25/1 shot for the Supreme at Cheltenham. Lieutenant Colonel looks his biggest danger tomorrow but Mullins's judgment in going with the less high-profile option here, instead of Vautour or Moyle Park, can be vindicated.
Returns to action
Big Shu was a cross-country hero at Cheltenham and Punchestown last season and returns to action over the banks tomorrow, but with Paul Carberry on his back instead of old ally Barry Cash who rides Duers in the race instead.
The former Grade One hurdler Oscars Well has a first run for new trainer Tony Martin in the latest Pertemps Qualifier and concedes weight all round, including almost two stone to the novice Clonard Lad.
The Mullins runner failed to The Game Changer over two miles here prior to Christmas having previously won over half a mile further and a step up to three miles should be well within his compass.
It will be a major slog in the three and a half Grand National Trial where Quito De La Roque tops the weights.
His inclusion means that Gigginstown's other hope, Folsom Blue, will carry a comparative featherweight.
It’s worth ignoring the former high class novice hurdler’s previous start behind Mount Colah which was over a wholly inadequate two-miles.
