The first of Aidan O’Brien’s short-odds Royal Ascot hotpots, Churchill, proved a dismal flop on Tuesday so it won’t be just the memory of Order of St George’s shock Irish Leger defeat at 1-7 last season which will make many punters wary of taking very short prices about Thursday’s Gold Cup favourite.
Otherwise though it’s a difficult job coming up with a convincing argument why Order of St George shouldn’t successfully defend his crown in the week’s traditional centrepiece.
It’s true he won the historic 210-year-old marathon on much softer going last year, just as it is the case that he only has 3lb in hand of his nearest rivals on official handicap ratings. And even at five years of age he remains something of an enigma for some given some relatively in-and-out form overall.
But the idea of Big Orange, Shheikhzayedroad or any other of his rivals finishing third in the Arc – as Order of St George did following that spectacular Curragh last year – seems pretty far-fetched. And it’s that latent quality which makes the latest O’Brien hotpot look irresistible.
It’s not like Order of St George didn’t win on a quick surface in the Savel Beg last time and he should strip a much sharper beast now than he did when beaten at Navan in April by Torcedor.
The latter has been a revelation for Jessica Harrington so far this year but this is the real deal in stayers championship terms.
Staggering record
That possibly explains how O’Brien-trained favourites generally rise to the Gold Cup occasion. The champion trainer is looking for an eighth win in the race, a staggering record by any standard but especially considering Coolmore’s commercial inclination towards speed.
Gold Cup upsets are hardly unknown but this has been Order of St George's target all season and he can give Ireland a 12th success in the stamina game's championship prize.
The Epsom Oaks third Alluringly runs for Ballydoyle in the Ribblesdale Stakes. But it's a tribute to the widespread regard in which John Oxx is held that a win for Naughty Or Nice in this Group Two would be popular far beyond solely Irish interest.
It’s a dozen years since the Curragh trainer had the last of his seven Royal Ascot winners and there has been a notable dip in fortunes for the man who masterminded the peerless Sea The Stars story in 2009.
Resurgence
A decent bunch of three-year-old fillies have prompted something of a resurgence this season though and Naughty Or Nice’s presence here is significant considering Oxx has never abandoned the habit, whatever the circumstances, of not saddling runners just for the sake of it.
Naughty Or Nice has something to find in form terms but she’s unbeaten in two and the application of first-time blinkers could also be significant too given her somewhat idle attitude towards racing up to now.
Irishcorrespondent hasn't faced ground conditions as quick as he will find in the Hampton Court Stakes where Mirage Dancer could prove hard to beat but Ger Lyons looks to have a shout in the Britannia Handicap with Lightening Fast.
The 9lb he picked up for winning at Navan in April gets him into the bottom of this and Lyons, who could also enjoy a good evening at Leopardstown with Noble Intention, has always had this race in mind for the Qatar runner.
