The pecking order of Ireland’s top Champion Hurdle contenders could be determined in the Grade 1 highlight at Leopardstown on Tuesday.
Epatante’s grip on the championship crown eased somewhat with her shock defeat at Kempton on St Stephen’s Day.
Whether her status as clear favourite for Cheltenham in March remains intact might be determined by the Matheson Hurdle outcome.
Saint Roi, owned, like Epatante, by JP McManus, and Abacadabras, perhaps Michael O’Leary’s best ever chance of winning a Champion Hurdle, are currently next best in most ante-post lists.
They clash again after a mostly unsatisfactory Morgiana outcome last month when Saint Roi did practically everything wrong and still got to within a neck of his rival.
That Abacadabras once again showed a tendency to try and pluck defeat form the jaws of victory showed him to be a wayward talent for whom black and white form may be an insufficient gauge of what he can do when everything drops right.
Interpreting Saint Roi looks easier. In comparison to the Morgiana he needs to be not so rank, jump better, and not give jockey Mark Walsh such a hard time. If he does all that then there is clearly loads of class to work with. But it’s a big ‘if’ at short odds.
Concentrating on both of those potentially means ignoring the obvious form clue, however. Aspire Tower routed Abacadabras to the tune of four-and-a-half lengths at Down Royal in October. Cleverly presuming on the two market principals could wind up looking too clever by half.
Aspire Tower is as high as 20-1 for the Champion Hurdle but those odds could tumble after Tuesday’s race.
Wide-margin
It was last Christmas when he burst on the scene with a wide-margin in the Grade 2 Juvenile Hurdle here. His season petered out slightly afterwards with a fall at the Dublin Racing Festival before going to the Triumph at Cheltenham and finishing runner-up.
Goshen’s final flight fall got all the attention on that occasion. But considering he never looked happy throughout the race it was remarkable how Aspire Tower wound up chasing home Burning Victory.
That Down Royal reappearance looked a lot more like the horse seen last Christmas. Since then he has been purchased by businessman Brian Acheson and lines up in this Grade 1 rather than take up an easier option of a Grade 2 at Limerick 45 minutes earlier.
There is an orthodoxy that suggests horses out of their juvenile season are up against it facing their elders and that the help of a 3lb age allowance isn’t help enough.
However, Espoir d’Allen confounded that by landing the Champion Hurdle itself two years ago while Unaccompanied managed to land Tuesday’s race as a four-year-old in 2011.
The danger of being too clever by half also surrounds Saint Roi’s stable companion Sharjah.
After all he has won this race for the last two years and put up perhaps a career-best performance when chasing home Epatante in the Champion Hurdle last March.
Another Mullins hope, Saldier, has made even Al Boum Photo look busy in recent seasons yet, fragile as he is, he can still boast Grade 1 winning form.
The presence of Petit Mouchoir could mean pace won’t be an issue like it was in the Morgiana. However come 2.30 on Tuesday afternoon Aspire Tower might have emerged as a leading Champion Hurdle contender.
Eagerly anticipated
Tuesday’s other Grade 1 is the Neville Hotels Novice Chase where Monkfish’s second start over fences is eagerly anticipated.
Last season’s Albert Bartlett winner made a big impression on his chasing debut at Fairyhouse and is clear favourite to win at the Cheltenham festival for a second time in the big novice chase there.
Already there is speculation about what might happen if he ever runs into Envoi Allen at some point, chat that will sound even more premature if he doesn’t win in style on Tuesday.
Considering there was only a neck between Monkfish and Latest Exhibition in that Albert Bartlett it’s not like the favourite is facing into a lucrative solo.
Latest Exhibition lost out to Pencilfulloflead last time although that was on very testing ground. On a better surface he could make it lot closer than many presume, although it’s still hard to oppose his big rival.
Concertista has to concede weight all round in the Grade 3 Mares hurdle and on official figures is 6lbs ‘wrong’ with one of her opponents, Black Tears.
The impressive Cheltenham festival winner was so impressive on her Fairyhouse reappearance, though, that it will be an anti-climax should Concertista fail to emerge on top.
Hollow Games delivered on his expensive purchase price in a Thurles bumper last month and looks the one to beat in Leopardstown’s finale.
