What a difference a year makes: 12 months ago it seemed Sire de Grugy became a Queen Mother Champion Chase winner almost by default, praised through the prism of Sprinter Sacre's absence, a two-mile champ to settle for. And today he looks to be the rock solid option in a fascinating clash of champions.
For a race that boasts three former winners, one of them rated in some quarters among the greatest ever steeplechasers, not to mention a handful of other proven Grade 1 winners, this is a Champion Chase festooned with ifs.
Most intriguing
The most intriguing is whether or not Sprinter Sacre is back to the level that saw him take the crown in 2013. If he is, or even if he’s close to it, then the horse once rated by Timeform superior to every chaser bar Arkle and Flyingbolt will win, with no ifs or buts required. But as ifs go, that’s a biggie.
Sprinter Sacre’s Ascot comeback, more than a year after the heart-scare that saw him pulled up at Kempton, has divided opinion, appearing to be a perfectly reasonable comeback in the circumstances but hardly of the spectacular kind that the giant nine-year-old once used to put in as routine.
The picture was blurred even more by a bleed after the race, and although Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty insist Sprinter Sacre has improved considerably for the outing, the suspicion remains that the horse's absolute glorious peak may be in the past. It's a suspicion it seems Henderson shares.
“I think everyone would love to see him back as he was, so special,” he said. “I don’t think he’ll ever be back to what he was two years ago when he was unbeatable – but he might not need to be.”
That’s hardly the ringing endorsement to get punters plunging on a favourite so the betting value looks to lie elsewhere.
Sire de Grugy’s season has hardly been foot-perfect either. A setback ruled him out until last month’s Game Spirit at Newbury, where he looked anything but happy even before losing his rider with a bad mistake. But Gary Moore’s decision to bring him out quickly again in a handicap on very soft ground at Chepstow has looked to pay off.
Renewed zest
Quick over his fences and racing with renewed zest, Sire de Grugy put in a performance to warm the cockles of veterans nostalgic for days when champions tested their mettle by conceding weight and coming up trumps. Any idea that Sire de Grugy’s campaign to retain the two-mile might have been derailed was comprehensively put to bed at Chepstow and Moore’s confidence is restored.
“I think he has a serious chance. I can see heaps of pace in the race, which will suit us. The faster they go, the better,” Moore said. “He had a very interrupted preparation before Newbury and it was a miracle we got there after the setbacks. He can only improve.”
In some ways, Dodging Bullets is filling the role Sire de Grugy did last season, dominating in the Tingle Creek and the Clarence House, without it seems fully capturing the public’s imagination as a likely champion, so much so that his stable companion Mr Mole is being touted by some as an alternative, even though the worrying phrase “quirky” invariably accompanies his name.
There will be worse big-priced outsiders running here this week than the 2011 champion Sizing Europe, the last Irish-trained winner of the race, although the main hope for the raiders looks to be the dual-festival hero Champagne Fever. Considering he was being touted as a potential Gold Cup winner up to Christmas, Champagne Fever's appearance in this race testifies to a mixed season which nevertheless got a boost with a good win at Gowran last time.
"That will put him in a good frame. We've taken his Cheltenham record into account – three runs, only beaten a short head once, all over the minimum trip," Willie Mullins said. "It probably takes a two-and-a- half-mile horse to win the Champion Chase anyway."
That may be true, but what this Champion Chase appears to require is quality and an absence of question marks. After his Chepstow win, Sire de Grugy looks to fit the bill.
