A vintage 2023 Guinness Six Nations, certainly on this side of the Irish Sea, is back upon us. And now it’s getting interesting. By this time a fortnight hence the final table will tell no lies.
Ireland are the only team who can still complete a Grand Slam, but Scotland, England and France are all within five points and can nurture hope for the title. And it’s set up perfectly.
An Italian side without Ange Capuozzo will host Wales next Saturday in the opening game of round four in what appears to be a wooden-spoon decider, before an intriguing title eliminator between England and France. Then comes the shoot-out in Murrayfield.
Conceivably, Ireland could be champions by close of business on Sunday. If England or France win without a bonus point, then an Irish win with a bonus point the next day would secure only a 15th outright title in history.
Would that feel a little disappointing? Might even a part of Andy Farrell prefer that everything was still on the line on Saturday week when Ireland host England at the Aviva?
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Admittedly, Ireland could still take a giant leap towards the title by winning in Murrayfield given they have comfortably the best points difference.
However, winning the title a week before the finale – still a hell of an achievement – might seem almost anti-climactic were Ireland subsequently denied a Grand Slam at home to England a week later.
Rewind to glum English teams being presented the trophy in 2001 and 2017 in Dublin after being denied a Grand Slam, on the latter occasion when seeking back-to-back Slams only to see their world-record equalling run of 18 Test wins in succession come to an end.
Not that beating this particular Scotland team next Sunday in Murrayfield is anything remotely like a fait accompli.
Scotland began with a deserved bonus-point victory in Twickenham and backed that up with another one at home to Wales a week later, thereby winning their opening two matches for the first time since 1996.
Next Sunday they will be seeking Scotland’s first Triple Crown since 1990 and first title since 1999.
They are entitled to aspire, to dream, bearing in mind the quality of players at their disposal, how long this team has been building and their improved strength in depth.
The sense this time is, also, of a Scottish team that is more grounded. In a revealing interview on BBC Radio 5 after those opening two wins, Finn Russell made it clear that Scotland had beaten two teams under two new coaching tickets, and that the acid Tests of two games against the world’s top two awaited.
The suspicion lurks that the 14-a-side game in Paris prompted by two early red cards maybe suited them than France. Yet they’ll take heart from their performance.
Russell is, of course, their heartbeat again in what feels almost like a third version of Scotland under Gregor Townsend, for whom this is a sixth, and potentially last Championship, given the SRU chief executive Mark Dodson is waiting until the World Cup to decide whether to renew his head coach’s contract, or not.
In the first two years under Townsend’s watch, Scotland played a furious, high-tempo brand of ball-in-hand, rugby which came undone, against Ireland in Tokyo particularly, before a wildly frenetic exit at the hands of a similarly ambitious Japan side.
Townsend’s Scotland then became a more pragmatic side, which placed a greater emphasis on kicking, and in which Russell seemed an unnatural fit. The two have evidently had a difficult relationship, highlighted by Russell being dropped for the loss to Ireland in 2020 after a late-night drinking session and missing a training session.
Even as recently as last October, Townsend had omitted Russell from the start of their Autumn Series campaign on the premise that he was not in form. Blair Kinghorn started the 16-15 loss to Australia and Adam Hastings the 28-12 win over Fiji, before Russell was restored for the 31-23 loss to the All Blacks and the 52-29 win over Argentina.
For sure, Marcos Kremer’s 22nd-minute red card changed everything, but Russell was imperious and, eh, very much in-form. His initial exclusion looked laughable.
Crucially, alongside him Russell is benefitting from most probably the best midfield partnership outside him in the Glasgow pairing of Sione Tuipulotu and Huw Jones.* The Australian-born Tuipolutu, whose grandmother hails from Scotland, not only provides punchy go-forward, but a deft skill set which means he’s often employed as first receiver or even from lineouts over the top, but to utilise his passing as well.
He also has a clever kicking game, witness the grubber for Jones’ try in Twickenham. Picking Jones, who missed last year’s summer tour and autumn with a back injury, over the superior defensive qualities of Chris Harris is another statement selection by Townsend. As Brian O’Driscoll has said, Jones just has an innate ability to sniff out line breaks. Scotland have had a host of centres to choose from in recent years, and Townsend has used 27 different midfield combinations. But he looks finally to have hit upon his best one.
Duhan van der Merwe’s sensational solo effort at Twickenham will probably win try of the tournament, but his second, to win that match, said more about this Scottish team. Starting from Russell’s take on his own 22, four quick fire phases, 13 passes, one offload and less than 50 seconds later, van der Merwe scored in the corner.
To a collective Scottish exhalation of relief, Russell came through his exertions with Racing 92 on Sunday night, when the Parisians lost 39-35 at home to Toulouse, unscathed and Scotland have a full hand to select from save for Grant Gilchrist’s suspension, with Jonny Gray expected to partner his brother Richie.
They’re playing well. Their country is behind them like it hasn’t been for years. Stuart Hogg hasn’t been tearing it up yet, but next Sunday will be his 100th Test for Scotland. Save for Darcy Graham, they have a low injury profile and look fit, seeing out all their matches strongly to date. All things considered, this truly looks like the best Scottish side of the 24-year Six Nations era.
* This article was amended on March 7th, to correct a reference to Huw Jones.
