All World Cup warm-up matches are like attending a wedding rehearsal. It is very important that everyone understands their roles for the big day, but the big day is not today.
Playing Italy this weekend is just that, an Irish rehearsal.
With three lead-in matches against Italy, England and Samoa before the start of the big show itself, followed by two pool matches against Romania and Tonga, Ireland will have played the equivalent of an entire Six Nations before facing the might of South Africa in their first real crunch game of the Rugby World Cup.
It is a legitimate question to ask why are Ireland playing three warm-up games? Is the risk of injuries, which are inevitable in a high-intensity contact sport, worth the reward of providing game time for the team’s cohesion?
Why organise so many low-key matches prior to South Africa?
The enormous leaps that sports science has taken over the past two decades in understanding performance has been astonishing. And to Irish rugby’s great credit, their sports scientists have been surfing the peak of this wave of knowledge.
With this expertise, we have seen many Irish players such as Tadhg Furlong, Tadhg Beirne, and Robby Henshaw return to play after prolonged periods out of the game and they all hit the ground running immediately in crucial games.
With this in mind, we can all have faith that, after being away from playing for almost five months, Jonny Sexton will return to the starting team against Romania in the first pool match ready to perform at the top level. All due to the excellent supervision of the Irish medical team.
So it seems that “match fitness” may be a term that is consigned to history, given we can get players to peak condition without a string of practice matches.
With that in mind, we are justified to again ask the question, why are Ireland risking injuries with so many lead-up games before the rubber really hits the road in the last two pool games against South Africa and Scotland?
Perhaps we are all missing a key factor in the Irish backroom team’s pre-tournament planning. Ireland may well be rehearsing for two different selection scenarios against South Africa. Faced with the rock and hard place question of who they would rather play in the quarter-finals, New Zealand or France, Ireland might wonder if they are best served by defeating the Springboks or, counter-intuitively, losing to them.
While New Zealand are in glorious form, Ireland have defeated them in five of their last eight matches and won three of their last four encounters. Against Les Bleus, Ireland have only beaten them three times on French soil since 1972.
As crazy as it sounds, for Ireland the lesser of these two great evils may be facing the Kiwis in the quarter-final.
And as if I need to remind you, historically the quarter-finals have been Kryptonite to Irish World Cup hopes – played nine, lost nine.
Crystal ball-gazing ahead of a World Cup is an exercise fraught with unforeseen twists, turns and upsets. But let’s consider this.
We do not have to channel our inner QAnon to know that after the opening blockbuster match between New Zealand and France, Ireland will likely know their own destiny.
If New Zealand defeat France in Paris in the opening match, then New Zealand should finish on top of their pool. If Ireland prefer to face New Zealand in the knockout stages, they then need to finish second in their pool, behind South Africa, to avoid facing France.
If New Zealand defeat France, an Irish victory over the Springboks in their pool match would deliver a quarter-final against the hosts. Not much of a reward for defeating the defending champions.
If New Zealand do win in Paris, might Ireland look at squad rotation when they take on the Springboks.
It is possible that the reason Ireland have such an extensive warm-up schedule is to give players we may regard as backup valuable game time in preparation for them to face the Boks in their pool match.
An Irish selection against the Springboks containing a significant number of players who may not be considered frontline could be justified by the Irish management who will be able to point out that they have played so many lead up games prior to facing South Africa that their leading players are fatigued and need a break, which is reasonable.
If the opposite occurs and France defeat New Zealand, then Ireland will have prepared their backup players to perform against Romania and Tonga while resting their best team across the opening pool games so they are in peak form to defeat South Africa and top their pool.
Both scenarios might have been discussed, dissected and planned for by the Irish coaching staff. If they have not planned for such a scenario, then the coaches are not doing the job. If New Zealand beat France then expect a packed press conference when Ireland announce their team prior to facing the South Africans.
