Boom or gloom again it would appear, as it has usually been with Wales in recent times. The last World Cup cycle summed it up, Wales winning the Six Nations and coming within one play of a Grand Slam in 2021, but in each of the other three years they finished fifth, with one win and four losses each time.
Three seasons ago, all was doom and gloom, but thanks in part to Peter O’Mahony’s 12th-minute red card, Wales had the momentum of a win on the opening weekend. This was backed up a week later, thanks in part to Zander Fagerson’s 52nd-minute red card, with a victory over Scotland.
Cue the running joke in Wales: “Only three more red cards for a Grand Slam.”
How we laughed. But we shouldn’t have. Demonstrating once again what a dangerous side they can be with momentum, confidence and the backing of their public, Wales beat England 40-24 and Italy by 48-17. They led France 30-27 with 80 minutes on the clock in an empty Stade de France before being denied a Slam by Brice Dulin’s try when reduced to 13 players by yellow cards for Taulupe Faletau and Liam Williams.
By contrast, last year’s gloomy prognosis was lifted, irrationally perhaps, by the prodigal return of Warren Gatland, who had previously guided them to three Grand Slams. But they ran into a fine Irish side who, settled by Caelan Doris’s early try, gave the Red Dragonhood a reality check with a 34-10 bonus-point beating. A week later Wales were stuffed, 35-7, by the Scots.
Admittedly, they came through all manner of off-field difficulties and the threat of strike action by their players before their defeat by England, to actually display a more advanced attacking game in a 29-17 win over Italy and in scoring four tries when beaten 41-28 by France.
Wales also performed reasonably well at the World Cup, when probably not given the credit they deserved for their performance in beating Fiji in a cracker before eviscerating the Wallabies. Wales should also have been virtually out of sight after 20 minutes in the quarter-final, albeit they fell away badly.
However, that was a last throw of the dice for several of the players who had served Wales so well for so long, and that unexpected 2021 title charge represents something of a blip as well as a last hurrah for a golden generation. Ken Owens, Alun Wyn Jones, Justin Tipuric, Dan Biggar, Jonathan Davies and Leigh Halfpenny have all since retired and Liam Williams has moved to Japan.
The injured Gareth Anscombe is also absent, Dan Lydiate is not involved, Tomas Francis has moved to France, while Dewi Lake and Jac Morgan (co-captains at the World Cup) are injured, as is Faletau, and in addition Louis Rees-Zammit has abandoned rugby in pursuing a career in the NFL.
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There is only one Test centurion, George North, and just four half-centurions. The average age of the squad, which has five uncapped players and 11 more in single figures, is 25 and all but five of their 34-man squad are home based. Of their four regions, only the Ospreys (eighth in the URC) have advanced in Europe and have a better than 50 per cent win ratio this season. The other three are in the URC bottom five and won one match out of 12 between them in the Champions and Challenge Cups.
Granted, Team Wales have often added up to more than the sum of their regional parts, particularly under Gatland, but perhaps the WRU’s financial difficulties and regional cost-cutting are catching up with them, especially with that generation of stalwarts having moved on. What’s more, their Under-20s have consistently finished in the bottom half of the table and last season lost every game.
Coach: Warren Gatland.
Captain and one to watch: Dafydd Jenkins. The 21-year-old Exeter lock will become the second youngest men’s player to lead Wales after Gareth Edwards captained his country when aged 20 in 1968, albeit Jenkins has to oust World Cup first-choice locks Adam Beard and Will Rowlands.
Prospects: Their captain is callow, and with only one prop surviving from the World Cup the same is true of their frontrow. Their backrow options have also been ravaged by injury. Of three young, inexperienced outhalves, Sam Costelow, with just eight caps, looks the likeliest 10 while Rees-Zammit might have been an option at fullback in the post-Halfpenny/Williams era. All in all, Gatland has an almighty task.
Win their opener at home to Scotland, and they can swing freely thereafter. Lose it though and it’s hard to see them avoiding a last-day shoot-out with Italy for the wooden spoon. Another fifth looks likely.
Schedule
Saturday, February 3rd: Wales v Scotland, Principality Stadium, 4.45pm
Saturday, February 10th: England v Wales, Twickenham, 4.45pm
Saturday, February 24th: Ireland v Wales, Aviva Stadium, 2.15pm
Sunday, March 10th: Wales v France, Principality Stadium, 3.00pm
Saturday, March 16th: Wales v Italy, Principality Stadium, 2.15pm
