Fix the set piece
For 12 months now, Ireland’s set piece has been an issue. According to Opta, their 83 per cent success rate at the lineout was the lowest of all Tier One nations during the World Cup. By contrast, France secured 93 per cent of their ball.
Fourteen of France’s 30 World Cup tries came from the lineout, a return we used to associate with Ireland when their set piece was a well-oiled, try-scoring platform.
The lineout was marginally better at last year’s Six Nations, Ireland winning 86 per cent of their own ball. They have shown an ability to win matches even with a faltering set piece, losing three lineouts during last year’s win over France at the Aviva.
Regardless, expecting attacking success off a continually misfiring lineout is unsustainable.
The scrum has been a concern as well. In the quarter-final defeat to New Zealand, Andrew Porter was penalised three times in that area. Rightly or wrongly, a perception of both Porter and the Irish scrum has developed – not a legal one – and it has filtered through to officials.
In recent years, Porter has had many a battle with Uini Atonio, the La Rochelle and France 145kg behemoth. Earning parity, or something close to it, on Friday will be critical.
Gerry Thornley in Marseille ahead of France vs Ireland
Territory, territory, territory
Marseille will see a clash of opposite attacking styles. Ireland are a possession-based team, seeing the ball on average 55.1 per cent of the time during last year’s Six Nations. France’s figure was only 45.4 per cent.
Watchers of the recent Netflix documentary will recall Shaun Edwards, France’s defence coach, coming out with one of the lines of the series.
In French: “When we have the ball in our half ...”
In English: “Kick the f*****g ball.”
France were second for kicks in play in last year’s championship with 170.
When they do hold on to the ball, the French are remarkably efficient. They made the fewest carries of any team during last year’s Six Nations (558) but still beat the most defenders (144). When they decide it’s on, it’s on.
A simple counter for Ireland is to do what they normally do, hold on to the ball, minimising the scope for France’s powerful carriers to do damage. France’s kick frequency should make this easier.
However, this may necessitate Ireland playing in areas where penalties gift Thomas Ramos opportunities for three-pointers. If Ireland stick to their guns, where on the pitch they play with the ball is crucial.
Arguably the most important stat out of last year’s victory over France was territory – Ireland earning 65 per cent. France made plenty of line breaks and forced numerous missed tackles, but not enough in advanced areas where they could do the most damage.
Win the battle of the 22s
No side was better than Ireland at entering an opponent’s 22 during last year’s Six Nations (10.6 times per match). However, no team was better than France at turning 22 entries into points, recording 3.1 points per entry.
On the flip side, Ireland were the best defensive side inside their own 22, conceding a measly 1.2 points per entry. France were not as defensively sound, allowing over a point more per entry (2.2).
Ireland are a good attacking and defensive side in the 22. France are better when they have the ball close to the line but fairly average without it.
If the historical data continues in this vein, Ireland will probably be in a good spot. However, Friday’s referee, Karl Dickson, could well favour attacking sides in all situations, particularly in the 22.
Despite backing their goal-line defence – memories of the late stand to keep out South Africa in the World Cup ring true – Ireland would do well to win the territory battle and keep France out of their 22.
Defend the flanks
When they have the ball, France, much like Ireland, play relatively narrow off set piece and in general phase play. In last year’s Six Nations, France moved the ball less than two metres either side of the ruck 15 per cent of the time, the highest figure in the championship.
When teams play in a narrow fashion, cutting off access out wide when they do decide to spread the ball is all the more vital, given they only go to the wings when the space is there.
Jacques Nienaber’s blitz defence, with defenders flying out of the line into those wider passing channels, is normally very effective in this regard.
Leinster, of course, have changed their defensive system to mimic this, first under Seán O’Brien and now Nienaber. Munster do something similar, given they generally allow very few passes per tackle. Many have wondered if this will creep into Ireland’s game.
One area where France do immediately go wide is in transition, off quick turnover ball. The only thing that can be done to stop that is to prevent the turnover in the first place. Irish error counts must be low.
Speed, I am speed
Ireland have a big pack of their own, but only South Africa really can contend with the French forwards when it comes to size. What does everyone say when playing against a pack with plenty of heft?
Keep the big boys continually moving around the park.
Two aspects are key to this. Firstly, the breakdown. Ireland’s ruck speed at the last Six Nations was significantly below tournament average – 3.2 seconds per breakdown.
The breakdown in general, as ever, is critical. For all their jackal threats, earning four steals last year vs Ireland, France don’t consistently turn the ball over, earning just 21 across the whole Six Nations.
Combine that with Ireland’s efficient attacking breakdown. In the Andy Farrell era, Ireland have won 96.7 per cent of their rucks, the highest of any Tier One nation since 2020.
Moving the ball quickly and, quite crucially, holding on to it for sustained periods, should be a ploy to keep France out on their feet.
The second aspect is Ireland’s kicking game. It is generally accepted that the team that kicks for the most metres regularly wins in international matches, but as well as kicking for territory, Ireland should also kick to keep the ball on the field.
This serves a double purpose. Keep France moving without regular breaks for lineouts, while also avoiding that particular set piece if it continues to be an issue.
