Champions Cup semi-final: Leinster v Northampton, Croke Park, Saturday, 5.30 – Live on RTÉ 2 and TNT Sports
Croke Park will offer a novel sense of place for many of the 82,300 rugby supporters, a capacity congregation in an iconic Irish sporting cathedral, that will commandeer every nook and cranny from the terraced steps of Hill 16 to the steepling Hogan, Cusack and Davin stands.
Leinster return for a second Investec Champions Cup semi-final at GAA headquarters, 15 years after they unseated the pregame favourites and reigning European champions, Munster; a reminder that paper predictions can shred easily.
The attraction of playing in the Jones’ Road venue was evident in the Irish province’s captain’s run. The backs versus forwards ‘limb loosener’ was conducted under Gaelic football rules with a ball to match, while earlier Jack Conan, Tadhg Furlong, Jimmy O’Brien and Jamie Osborne among others, couldn’t resist having a pop at the posts. And not a Jackeen among them kicking into the Hill. Footnote: Northampton opted for hurls and sliotars later in the afternoon.
Leinster head coach Leo Cullen said: “It’s a real privilege to be here, a magnificent stadium. It’s iconic, not just in terms of sport but in Irish society. For this generation of players to get that chance, Cian [Healy] being the only one that’s still there from the previous time. I hope we do it justice. The guys have prepared well, not just this week, but the previous week as well.”
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Neither fullback Hugo Keenan nor Garry Ringrose are fit enough to participate. There are two changes from the team that started the quarter-final against La Rochelle, Ross Molony partners Joe McCarthy in the second row, while Josh van der Flier is named at openside flanker.
Will Connors is very unlucky to miss out altogether, a fact that Cullen acknowledged. Jimmy O’Brien returns to the match-day 23 following a long-standing neck issue. Healy, set to break the all-time tournament appearance record if introduced, has won a place on the bench to the exclusion of Michael Milne.
Captain and number eight Caelan Doris explained that former Dublin footballer Declan Darcy, part of Leinster’s back room team, spoke to the squad about the Croke Park effect.
“His message to us was that it magnifies your performance, whether it is a good one or a bad one.
“Our plan, our prep over the last two weeks, has been about getting our best performance and hopefully that will get the crowd involved, build an atmosphere, and make it a special day for us. It’s been a good couple of weeks prep, and we are excited.”
Northampton are without wing Ollie Sleightholme (concussion) and flanker Lewis Ludlum (shoulder), but 21-year-old wing George Hendy, centre Fraser Dingwall, Alex Coles and Alex Moon return after missing the league defeat to Harlequins. Courtney Lawes takes over the captaincy while Juarno Augustus is named at number eight.
The Saints sit atop of the Gallagher Premiership, playing a cracking brand of attacking rugby, possessing oodles of pace, a sound set piece, a young outhalf in Fin Smith who leads the team in tackles, points and is mature in his game management, and a canny, box-kicking scrumhalf in Alex Mitchell.
Young hooker Curtis Landon is a fine prospect, while Lawes, who leads the tournament with lineout wins (33), is undiminished by the ageing process.
Tommy Freeman’s versatility across multiple positions and the skill sets accrued facilitate a role of playmaker in the 13 channel, while both wings and England international fullback George Furbank are fleet-footed. Fraser Dingwall provides the defensive glue in the three-quarter line. They include a cohort of English internationals that stopped Ireland’s gallop in March at Twickenham.
In contrast to the Saints, the majority of the Leinster players are well rested. Over the last few weeks they have had a chance to decompress after the emotionally charged win over La Rochelle, and in the last fortnight fine-tune a game plan at their UCD base, while other squad members travelled to fulfil URC commitments in South Africa.
There are several red flags for Leinster in defence if judged purely on statistics; of the four semi-finalists, they have conceded the most yellow cards (five), appreciably the most penalties (70), missed the most tackles (149) and have the lowest tackles-made percentage (84). Yet it was Leinster’s ferocious defence that provided a catalyst for the win over La Rochelle.
Leinster have managed more kick metres than any other team in the tournament, a policy from which they are unlikely to deviate, while also conceding the fewest turnovers. There are a few key tenets in the Irish province’s patterns, the ability to retain possession, to slow down opposition breakdown ball and to ruthlessly exploit opportunity.
There is none better than scrumhalf Jamison Gibson-Park in that respect, Leinster’s beacon of creativity. Ross Byrne managed the game superbly the last day and will need to do so again, Ciarán Frawley stepped in and up at fullback, while Molony and Van der Flier must vindicate the decision to hand them starting roles.
Both teams will reach for the low-hanging fruit of history; Leinster have won nine of 10 matches against the Saints including the 2011 European final. Northampton’s only success was on Irish soil, on the other side of Liffey, at the Aviva Stadium. The old saying about the importance of playing the match and not the occasion is both trite and true.
Northampton’s two wins over Munster earlier in the campaign encapsulate both quality and weakness; wonderfully defiant and brave when a man down at Thomond Park, while brittle and unsure for a large tranches of the knock-out game at Franklin’s Gardens.
Leinster have a legitimate claim to being the better team, the bookies have them as 14-point favourites and they have an overwhelming groundswell of support. The integrity of performance must be hard-nosed, unrelenting and ruthless to prevail.
LEINSTER: Ciarán Frawley; Jordan Larmour, Robbie Henshaw, Jamie Osborne, James Lowe; Ross Byrne, Jamison Gibson-Park; Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong; Ross Molony, Joe McCarthy, Ryan Baird, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris (Capt).
Replacements: Rónan Kelleher, Cian Healy, Michael Ala’alatoa, Jason Jenkins, Jack Conan, Luke McGrath, Harry Byrne, Jimmy O’Brien.
NORTHAMPTON: George Furbank; James Ramm, Tommy Freeman, Fraser Dingwall, George Hendy; Fin Smith, Alex Mitchell; Alex Waller, Curtis Langdon, Trevor Davison; Alex Moon, Alex Coles; Courtney Lawes (capt), Sam Graham, Juarno Augustus.
Replacements: Sam Matavesi, Emmanuel Iyogun, Elliot Millar Mills, Temo Mayanavanua, Angus Scott-Young, Tom James, Tom Litchfield, Tom Seabrook.
Referee: Mathieu Raynal (France).
Forecast: Leinster to win
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