Blink and you missed it. With rapid-fire speed, the first tranche of six matches have been and gone. And so, by the end of October, such is the lopsided nature of the rugby season that with nine-plus months until the Lions wrap up business in Australia, already one-third of the BKT URC season has been completed.
Meanwhile, after eight rounds of the most financially remunerative club league in the world, the Top 14 still has 18 rounds remaining. While a home-and-away, 30-game format would simply be far too much for the URC to endure, not for the first time the thought occurs that it is perhaps just a little too short.
Whatever about that, any analysis of the provinces’ first thirds to the URC come with caveats, not least given Munster and Ulster have at least negotiated their South African safaris, even if with only one point apiece. After all, there have been 73 games in South Africa against northern hemisphere visitors since the dawn of the URC, and only 14 away wins to date.
Munster part ways with URC-winning head coach
The South Africans also have an additional round of fixtures against each other and as well as the Boks-studded Sharks’ statement win over Munster, even in losing to Leinster the Lions demonstrated that the competition will be even more competitive this season.
What’s more Cardiff’s comeback win from 19-0 down against Ulster at half-time completed a first Welsh hat-trick against teams from opposing countries since March 2021. So, while not season-defining just yet, it’s certainly been a contrasting block for the four provinces.
Leinster (1st, 29 pts)
Almost the perfect 30 from 30, Leinster are seemingly hell-bent on ensuring they finish first so as to ensure a home quarter-final and possible semi-final and final as well. As they know that comes with no guarantees, but it rules out a trek to South Africa at short notice in the knock-out stages.
They’ve done this despite Leo Cullen’s usual juggling act (47 players used), their ongoing outhalf conundrum and missing four senior hookers. The most clinical team in the opposition 22, there have also been signs of Leinster’s defence bedding in more effectively.
But Cullen will be mindful of a tricky resumption in five weeks time away to Ulster without circa 17 Irish squad members, the Christmas trek to Munster and their safari to South Africa against the Bulls and the Sharks in the immediate aftermath of the Six Nations. Glasgow look a big threat again and Leinster will want to have first place sewn up, or at least within their grasp, when hosting the Warriors in the final round.
Connacht (5th, 18 pts)
An encouraging start to give sustenance to preseason optimism and an entertaining brand of rugby which has caught the eye of neutrals as well as home supporters. Pete Wilkins’s new coaching ticket has evidently found a better balance. The lineout, ranked second on their own throw and still disruptive defensively, is now well-oiled and only the top two have scored more tries (24) or registered more attacking bonus points (four), while in defenders beaten, metres gained and line breaks, Connacht are ranked second, third and fourth.
Defensively they’re still a little too porous and the jury is still out on Josh Ioane. But Cathal Forde is a gem and Matthew Devine’s lively cameo last Saturday after Caolin Blade’s try-scoring start following the impact of Ben Murphy underlines their incredible depth at scrumhalf.
Targeting a first home knock-out tie since March 2018 in the Challenge Cup also looks a realistic target, albeit it will require some balancing to compete on two fronts.
Wilkins’s selection strategy underlines how Connacht have targeted a strong start, ahead of some testing away games, not least an April trek to South Africa for rounds 15 and 16. An occasional interpro victory would help but racking up wins at the Dexcom Stadium looks key to their ambition of a top-eight finish.
Ulster (7th, 16 pts)
Until half-time last Saturday night in Cardiff, realistically given their depth and injury woes, and an early-season trip to South Africa, things could not have gone much better for Ulster.
Finding a way as they do at home, they’d eked out a last-ditch one-point win over Glasgow, brought home one point from two matches in South Africa despite being well outplayed in both, and then racked up bonus-point wins at home to Connacht and Ospreys.
The emergence of hooker James McCormick, outhalf James Humphreys and centre Jude Postlethwaite have been positives, along with Jacob Stockdale’s searing form. The feelgood factor has returned to the Kingspan, there has been evident buy-in to the culture created by Richie Murphy and the continuing potency of their lineout maul has retained a base supply of tries.
But, continuing their away-day blues, cue the capitulation in Cardiff, after which Murphy could barely conceal his anger, and which will leave a sour taste before the visit of Leinster in five weeks. Still, they’ve actually had a good block.
Munster (12th, 12 pts)
As Graham Rowntree is wont to say, there’s no sugar-coating this. Two wins and four defeats leaves them 12th, albeit they will point to a similar start two seasons ago, when actually losing five of their first seven before a win over South Africa ignited their season and they ended an 11-year trophy drought.
Despite losing so much X-factor during the off-season and hardly seeing Thaakir Abrahams, Tom Farrell has settled very quickly and some of Munster’s attacking rugby has been very good (second for clean breaks and metres made, third for offloads, fifth for most tries, joint third for attacking bonus points). But only the Dragons and Ulster have conceded as many tries, and save for that rain-sodden round three night against the Ospreys they’ve conceded attacking bonus points in each of their other five games, while not earning a solitary losing bonus point.
This includes that first loss in 21 meetings with Zebre, which remains just the Italian side’s third win in 60 URC games. Injuries again haven’t helped, but either side of an error-strewn loss to the Stormers, against Leinster and the Sharks they were physically bullied a little. A concerning start, no doubt.
- Listen and subscribe to our Counter Ruck rugby podcast
- Sign up for push alerts and have the best news, analysis and comment delivered directly to your phone
- Find The Irish Times on WhatsApp and stay up to date
