Autumn Nations Series,
Ireland v New Zealand,
Aviva Stadium, Friday, 8.10pm,
Live on Virgin Media One & TNT Sports 1
Although this week may in other respects feel like a depressing step back in time to eight years ago, all has changed, changed utterly since Ireland’s breakthrough win in Chicago in 2016. Now, as a 10th clash since that historic day looms into view it may be stretching things to say a terrible beauty has been born. But a feisty and very real rivalry certainly has.
That will be reflected in the simmering tension and atmosphere which is sure to grip the Aviva Stadium in the prematch preamble and lights show. One hopes the crowd are encouraged to clear their lungs rather than just have their ears deafened. This script doesn’t need much of a soundtrack.
“It’s special, especially against New Zealand, it goes up another level, I think,” ventured Ireland captain Caelan Doris on Thursday. “Hearing The Fields of Athenry at the start of the game, it’s palpable, you can definitely feel the extra energy it gives you and the support behind us.”
Indeed, the Aviva is generally feverish anyway for the All Blacks even when in sleepy Sunday lunchtime mode, witness that crackling encounter in 2013 which in many ways laid the foundations for Soldier Field.
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But on a Friday night, in the fallout of that World Cup quarter-final last time they met 13 months ago and the recent revelations around the Reiko Ioane-Johnny Sexton imbroglio, the place should be fairly sizzling.
Of course, no November win at home can adequately compensate for the most distressing Irish defeat of them all. But, for a little while anyway, a modicum of redemption would temporarily banish those memories, especially as 17 of the Ireland 23 were on duty on that Parisian night.
Leaving aside all talk of grudges or vengeance, it’s easy to forget that this fixture is the nearest thing to a summit meeting which this month’s global schedule can throw up.
Ireland against New Zealand is first against third in the world rankings and lest we forget, while Andy Farrell’s side could easily have won that quarter-final, but for Same Cane’s 28th-minute red card or Aaron Smith’s wrongly disallowed try in the 54th minute of the final, the All Blacks could easily be world champions.
Admittedly, they’ve haemorrhaged a layer of experience since, which the loss of Beauden Barrett and Codie Taylor this week has compounded. They retain only 10 of that 23 in Paris, and are still in transition under Scott Robertson’s new coaching ticket.
Even so, while not a great team yet, they have great players, and an array of gamebreakers. With his acceleration, strength and most of all stunning footwork, unearthing Wallace Sititi is like having Brian O’Driscoll in the backrow to complement Ardie Savea, who couldn’t continue carrying them as he did in the World Cup.
Meanwhile, no matter how one compares Sam Cane to Richie McCaw, he dominated the breakdown in the quarter-final and it’s the openside’s grafting which allows Sititi and Savea to grab the headlines and highlight reels.
Any team should ideally have its most potent attacking player at fullback, where he is effectively unmarked, and another significant change is how Robertson has moved Will Jordan to 15 since round four of the Rugby Championship. Jordan, who has never not scored against Ireland, can use that roving commission to pop up and run trailers from anywhere — witness that try off a scissors with Barrett at Twickenham.
No team is as devastating in transition, as underlined by that example last week when Sititi gathered going toward his own try line inside halfway, and one searing break and offload later it was neatly a try under the English posts.
“It’s tricky because they can massively create something from nothing in terms of transitions or if there’s scraps,” admits Doris. “They’ve guys like [Mark] Tele’a, [Wallace] Sititi, [Ardie] Savea — so many throughout their team who can just turn it on and create a bit of magic for them.
“Obviously our connections in defence, being ahead of the game, trying to win scraps, all those little bits are important in trying to negate that threat, but it’s definitely a big one.”
The All Blacks also like to roll the dice earlier than Ireland as much as they ever did, as evidenced by that Joe Schmidt-designed trick play in the quarter-final when it was Savea who chipped ahead for Jordan’s try, and as well as grubbers and chips, there were again plenty of crosskicks last week.
Ireland do not have the same try-scoring threat from distance, but in winning five of the last nine against the All Blacks, not to mention their last 19 Tests in a row at home, Ireland have consistently demonstrated their superior accuracy, their ability to construct periods of supremacy and maintain precision in multiphased attacks.
Of course, the lineout malfunctioned critically in the quarter-final, but the availability of Rónan Kelleher gives the Irish pack a more impressively complete look in the absence of Dan Sheehan. And the presence of James Ryan, while also accommodating Joe McCarthy and Tadhg Beirne ought to make the lineout work.
This fixture invariably brings out the best in the New Zealand-born trio of Jamison Gibson-Park, Bundee Aki and James Lowe and the Irish bench looks to have more oomph than the All Blacks, even if it belatedly delivered in Twickenham after five scoreless last quarters in the Rugby Championship.
The duel at 10 looks pivotal. Damian McKenzie, though he came up short in justifying Robertson’s investment in the Rugby Championship, couldn’t have responded any better than he did off the bench last week, and no less than him, this is a huge game for Jack Crowley.
But the young Munster outhalf demonstrated his ability to stay in the moment when first being handed the reins in Marseille and if recent history has taught us anything about this Ireland team it is that individually they shake off rustiness and flourish collectively in this environment.
One imagines they won’t lack for motivation either, and emotionally they should be perfectly pitched.
IRELAND: Hugo Keenan (Leinster); Mack Hansen (Connacht), Garry Ringrose (Leinster), Bundee Aki (Connacht), James Lowe (Leinster); Jack Crowley (Munster), Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster); Andrew Porter (Leinster), Rónan Kelleher (Leinster), Finlay Bealham (Connacht); Joe McCarthy (Leinster), James Ryan (Leinster); Tadhg Beirne (Munster), Josh van der Flier (Leinster), Caelan Doris (Leinster, capt).
Replacements: Rob Herring (Ulster), Cian Healy (Leinster), Tom O’Toole (Ulster), Iain Henderson (Ulster), Peter O’Mahony (Munster), Conor Murray (Munster), Ciarán Frawley (Leinster), Jamie Osborne (Leinster).
NEW ZEALAND: Will Jordan (Crusaders); Mark Tele’a (Blues), Rieko Ioane (Blues), Jordie Barrett (Hurricanes), Caleb Clarke (Blues); Damian McKenzie (Chiefs), Cortez Ratima (Chiefs); Tamaiti Williams (Crusaders), Asafo Aumua (Hurricanes), Tyrel Lomax (Hurricanes), Scott Barrett (Crusaders, capt), Tupou Vaa’i (Chiefs), Wallace Sititi (Chiefs), Sam Cane (Chiefs), Ardie Savea (Moana Pasifika).
Replacements: George Bell (Crusaders), Ofa Tu’ungafasi (Blues), Pasilio Tosi (Hurricanes), Patrick Tuipulotu (Blues), Samipeni Finau (Chiefs), Cam Roigard (Hurricanes), Anton Lienert-Brown (Chiefs), Stephen Perofeta (Blues).
Referee: Nic Berry (Australia).
Assistant referees: Karl Dickson (England), Andrea Piardi (Italy).
TMO: Brett Cronan (Australia).
Overall head-to-head: Played 37, Ireland 5 wins, 1 drawn, New Zealand 31 wins.
Last five meetings — 2023: New Zealand 28 Ireland 24 (Paris, RWC q/f); 2022: New Zealand 22 Ireland 32 (Wellington); 2022: New Zealand 12 Ireland 23 (Dunedin); 2022: New Zealand 42 Ireland 19 (Auckland); 2021: Ireland 29 New Zealand 20 (Dublin).
Betting: 2-5 Ireland, 19-1 Draw, 2-1 New Zealand. Handicap odds (New Zealand +6 pts): 10-11 Ireland, 20-1 draw, 10-11 New Zealand.
Forecast: Ireland to win.
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