Ex-players turned pundits are expected, even encouraged, to indulge in a little hyperbole. That’s the game after the game. Viewed from the outside, Dan Biggar’s assertion that Wales’ round two Six Nations encounter in Rome against Italy is their biggest match in 20 years has certainly earned traction and dominated the prematch narrative in Wales.
“It’s definitely not the biggest game Wales have had in the last 20 years,” responded Warren Gatland when asked about Biggar’s comment, and he has the decisive Grand Slam games of 2008, 2012 and 2019, not to mention the World Cup semi-final of 2011 and quarter-finals of 2015 and 2019 as fairly compelling evidence to the contrary.
Biggar was, it has to be said, speaking on ITV in the immediate and emotional aftermath of Wales’ opening Friday night loss to France by 43-0, which extended their record losing run to 13 Tests. But while it’s hard to place it above the final leg of a Grand Slam, or a Six Nations title-clinching win at home to England in 2013, or a World Cup semi-final, one could understand what motivated such an essentially well-meaning, bright, high achieving ex-Welsh outhalf into labelling a round two game against Italy in the Stadio Olimpico in such a way.
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For if those three Grand Slams in Gatland’s first tenure as Welsh head coach represented huge highs, defeat by the Azzurri could be seen as a nadir. Coupled with Georgia beating the Netherlands, which is highly probable, a win by Italy (ranked 10th) would see the Welsh, currently 11th in the standings, slip below Georgia, into an all-time low of 12th in the World Rugby rankings.
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Again, viewed from the outset, it always seemed as if Gatland’s first 12-year stint as head coach helped to mask many fundamental flaws in the WRU and their regions, which have worsened in recent times. In many ways, therefore, this is the product of mismanagement; chickens coming home to roost.
Yet it’s a measure of Wales’ decline that a round two victory over Italy would be interpreted as some form of salvation, if born out of desperation. The selection of Taulupe Faletau for his first game in a Welsh jersey since the World Cup in 2023 has a hint of that too, for he has only played four rugby matches in the intervening period.
Whereas Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies were an outstanding, nailed-on partnership for much of Gatland’s first tenure, in his 25 Tests so far since returning to the Wales job Gatland has used 10 different midfield combinations.
Now injury to Owen Watkin has obliged Gatland to blood Scarlets centre Eddie James in his first ever start in the red jersey alongside Nick Tompkins in a second change from last week. Halfback has been another revolving door, although last week’s new pairing of Tomos Williams and Ben Thomas has been retained.
However, Williams was unconvincing in a starting role last week while Thomas, the talented Cardiff centre who was winning his eighth Test cap in just his third start at outhalf, demonstrated his lack of experience by playing far too deep. Wales also employed one-off runners that were meat and drink to a defence designed by their former assistant from the glory days, Shaun Edwards.
By contrast, following Italy’s 31-19 defeat to Scotland last weekend, Gonzalo Quesada has made one change to his starting XV, Niccolo Cannone replacing Dino Lamb in the secondrow, with the latter dropping to the bench where Jacopo Trulla replaces Simone Gesi as the second backline player in their 6-2 split.
The pressure is on Quesada, and the Azzurri as well, after winning two games and drawing once last season. Although they have won on their last two visits to Cardiff, they have not beaten Wales in the Eternal City since 2007. Wales have won on their ensuing eight visits, and the last six by margins of 10-plus points. Yet Italy are 2-5 favourites to win, which is unusual terrain for them, even if it tells us as much about Welsh rugby right now.
Woe betide Gatland et al in the fallout were Wales to lose. Things have turned a little sour, with Roberts and, in particular, Mike Phillips among those weighing in critically on their one-time head coach. Biggar was no doubt speaking passionately about something he cares deeply about, namely the state of Welsh rugby, but his comments probably haven’t helped the current team either.
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