Ireland
Results so far:
Won v England (home) 27-22.
Won v Scotland (away) 32-18.
Remaining fixtures:
v Wales (away, Sat Feb 22nd, 2.15pm)
v France (home, Sat Mar 8th, 2.15pm).
v Italy (away, Sat Mar 15th, 2.15pm).
Title odds: 1/2
Two bonus-point wins out of two games, including the only away victory so far, leave Ireland ideally placed to pursue a historic third outright title in succession. They have banished many of the concerns regarding the temporary absence of Andy Farrell and the interim promotion of Simon Easterby.
Where there was collective and individual rust in the autumn, most players came into this Championship in prime nick and clearly, despite Easterby being a forwards and defence coach and Paul O’Connell remaining a big voice, Andrew Goodman was given time on the Algarve training pitch.
While the style remains true to their DNA developed in the Joe Schmidt and Farrell reigns with a passing running game, the launch plays and phased attack all look sharper. Whereas only one of the autumn’s 15 tries emanated from outside the 22, and a dozen of them came from five metres, only two of the eight tries so far have originated from close-in, while five have been from outside the 22, of which three have been from inside their own half.
Jamison Gibson-Park has been back to his inventive best while, despite having had no rugby since November, James Lowe has been a point of difference, as shown by eight line breaks (four more than anyone else), three try assists (equalled only by some bloke called Dupont) and a try that few others would have scored.
A blemish was conceding those two late tries and bonus point to England, and were the title to come down to points’ difference, Ireland could be disadvantaged by kicking off first on Super Saturday.
But Joe McCarthy will return, as might Tadhg Furlong, and they’ll be warm favourites in two of their remaining three matches. Most of all, Ireland have left opportunities behind (their 22 entries into the attacking are the highest) and there’s clearly more in this team.
France
Results so far:
Won v Wales (home) 43-0.
Lost v England (away) 25-26.
Remaining fixtures:
v Italy (away, Sun Feb 23rd, 3pm).
v Ireland (away, Sat Mar 8th, 2.15pm).
v Scotland (home, Sat Mar 15th, 8pm).
Title odds: 3/1.
All so very French so far. Sharp out of the blocks against Wales, having secured their bonus point by half-time, France arguably let the underpowered visitors off the hook, and Romain Ntamack’s red card contributed to their somewhat self-inflicted defeat in Twickenham. Some of their over-elaborate decision-making and mistakes against England betrayed signs of over confidence emanating from their record 53-10 win on their last visit two years ago and the thrashings meted out by some of their clubs to English teams in Europe. As one former French international observed, the performance of Fabien Galthié’s team lacked humility.
Louis Bielle-Biarrey, Antoine Dupont, Damian Penaud and Peato Mauvaka all had a dose of what Shaun Edwards called the “dropsies” in the English 22, committing four of France’s 27 handling errors. Admittedly Twickenham was sodden but it still brought to mind Toulouse’s profligate display away to the Sharks. Furthermore, their bench had less of an impact than England’s.
They remain a hugely potent team, with Bielle-Biarrey the tournament’s leading try scorer on four, and although Italy always raise their game against their neighbours, beating Les Bleus in Rome in 2011 and 2013, and drawing in Lille last season, the Azzurri are likely to feel France’s wrath.
Also, they will hardly be as wasteful against an Irish team who have won the last two meetings. Win in Dublin and France could have a significant advantage in kicking off last on Super Saturday against Scotland in Paris.
England
Results so far:
Lost v Ireland (away) 22-27.
Won v France (home) 26-25.
Remaining fixtures:
v Scotland (home, Sat Feb 22nd, 4.45pm).
v Italy (home, Sun Mar 9th, 3pm).
v Wales (away, Sat Mar 16th, 4.45pm).
Title odds: 5/1.
The decision to play three opensides in their backrow on the opening day came at the cost of affording Ireland 21 uncontested lineouts. England were also worn down by Ireland’s running game, while Dan Sheehan, Jack Conan and Jack Crowley, in particular, gave the home side way more oomph off the bench.
Even so, England emerged with a flattering bonus point after two late tries, reviving memories of their escape from Paris on opening night in 2020, when they went on to pip France to the title on points difference. Such a notion doesn’t seem so fanciful after their dramatic win over France when Fin Smith justified the faith many have in him that he can be England’s answer to their outhalf riddle.
The young Saints 10 seemed to provide more composure, helped no doubt by his connection with Northampton team-mates at scrumhalf and on both wings. That could be further strengthened by the return from injury of George Furbank (Exeter’s game-breaking Immanuel Feyi-Waboso may also return soon), which would result in an impact role for Marcus Smith. The return of Jamie George also gave their bench some invaluable experience.
England sit third, just four points adrift of Ireland and a tilt at the title is not out of the question, especially if France beat Ireland. England are seven-point favourites at home to Scotland next Saturday and will be even shorter odds at home to Italy and away to Wales.
Scotland
Results so far:
Won: v Italy (home) 31-19.
Lost v Ireland (away) 18-32.
Remaining fixtures:
v England (away, Sat Feb 22nd, 4.45pm).
v Wales (home, Sat Mar 8th, 4.45pm).
v France (away, Sat Mar 15th, 8pm).
Title odds: 80/1.
Even Finn Russell conceded Scotland were “underwhelming” when beating Italy on the opening weekend, albeit they did score five tries to one in a bonus-point victory that was only briefly in doubt. Scotland’s two standout performers have been openside Rory Darge and centre Huw Jones, who scored a fine hat-trick against the Azzurri and looked their most dangerous back against Ireland.
Scotland have remained true to themselves, making the most carries, passes and offloads, and the least kicks from hand. But they were ultimately well beaten at a deflated Murrayfield last weekend, and that could prove damaging.
Some of the psychological scars in losing their previous 10 meetings against Ireland under Gregor Townsend came to the surface with several handling errors and charge downs in the opening quarter. The die was already cast by the time they unluckily lost both Russell and Darcy Graham, who must be a doubt for Twickenham, where the connection between team and crowd is back.
Given the boost England must have got from beating France, it seems like an inopportune time for Scotland to be heading to Twickenham in search of a record fifth successive win in this fixture. The same could be said of their last-night visit to Paris.
Italy
Results so far:
Lost v Scotland (away) 19-31.
Won v Wales (home) 22-15.
Remaining fixtures:
v France (home, Sun Feb 243rd, 3pm).
v England (away, Sun Mar 9th, 3pm).
v Ireland (home, Sat Mar 15th, 2.15pm).
Title odds: 175/1.
A second successive home win in the competition and the first against Wales in Rome since 2007 was the minimum objective achieved, although the Azzurri have been underwhelming so far.
For all the flair in their best backline of the Six Nations era, little of their potential has been in evidence; the lovely dummy and grubber by Paolo Garbisi and Ange Capuozzo’s deft finish against Wales provided only glimpses of their attacking potential.
Their only other try so far came from an interception by their accomplished centre Juan Ignacio Brex, a score that briefly drew them level in Murrayfield, but Italy created little thereafter in that opening game.
Admittedly, the rain bucketed down in the Stadio Olimpico against Wales. Still, it is a measure of their more pragmatic approach under Gonzalo Quesada compared with Kieran Crowley that Italy have been the team that has passed, carried and offloaded the least, made the fewest line breaks, and have the lowest pass/kick ratio.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, with an exceptional goalkicker as head coach, Italy have also opted to kick for goal rather than kick to the touchline more than any other team. After Tommaso Allan’s nine successful penalties from 11 attempts, the next highest return is Sam Prendergast with three.
Italy will need to up their game in their last three matches.
Wales
Results so far:
Lost v France (away) 0-43.
Lost v Italy (away) 15-22.
Remaining fixtures:
v Ireland (home, Sat Feb 22nd, 2.15pm).
v Scotland (away, Sat Mar 8th, 4.45pm).
v England (home, Sat Mar 15th, 4.45pm).
Title odds: 425/1.
Oh dear. A fairly callow and limited generation under the captaincy of Jac Morgan, who has made 34 tackles in two games, were brave and willing on the opening night in Paris, where the class divide and the officiating were heavily against Wales.
Restricting the French to 43 points was a minor achievement given the 28-0 deficit at half-time, albeit the nil was never in much doubt given how far Ben Thomas (a talented centre making just his third Test start at outhalf) played behind the gainline. In the absence of much disguise, pods or variation, their runners were devoured by the Shaun Edwards-marshalled French defence.
It was a similarly bleak story in the Stadio Olimpico until a couple of tries in a spirited late rally earned a bonus point. That wasn’t enough to keep Warren Gatland in situ in his second spell − his first having yielded three Grand Slams − although it’s doubtful a combination of Farrell, Easterby (a prime long-term target as replacement) and Schmidt could significantly revive Wales given their regions’ results in Europe and their under-20s in recent years.
[ Whisper it, but Simon Easterby is the perfect fit for Welsh rugbyOpens in new window ]
That said, the interim appointment of Matt Sherratt could well prompt the customary new coach/manager bounce, and the Principality crowd will surely rally around their team in their first home game of the Championship.
