An apocryphal story in coaching circles tells the tale of a new head coach who walks into his office on day one and finds three sealed envelopes on his desk.
Written by the outgoing coach who was just sacked for a series of poor results, the first envelope was labelled “Open after losing five games”.
In deep trouble with playing systems that were not effective, the new coach loses five in quick succession. So he opened the first letter. It contained four words. “Blame the previous coach.”
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At the next press conference the incumbent heaped scorn on the poor state that his predecessor had left the organisation in, saying he needed time to fix the many technical coaching problems.
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None of this helped the team. The coach kept glancing at the second envelope labelled “Open after losing 10 matches”.
As the tenth defeat arrived the coach ripped open the envelope containing a single sheet of paper stating boldly: “Blame the players.”
Following those directions the coach immediately blamed the players' lack of work ethic and their inability to fight hard for a win so he needed a major recruiting programme in the next off-season.
None of this changed the fortunes of the team. Finally the coach faced the torture of looking at the third envelope entitled “Open after losing 15 games”.
After the teams 15th defeat the coach opened the envelope with some trepidation. It contained a much simpler message. “Write three letters.”
It wouldn’t be hard to believe that when the interim Welsh coach Matt Sherratt walked into his new office in Cardiff he looked at Warren Gatland’s desk and found three letters.
The truth is that the diabolical situation the Welsh team finds itself in has little to do with the now departed Gatland. It is the Welsh system below the national team that has it in tatters.
The problems in Wales started two decades ago with the disastrous decision to force traditional clubs into amalgamation. Clubs that had represented their communities for more than a century were forced into shotgun marriages with bitter rivals.
Powerhouse clubs like Swansea and Neath, who detested each other, were merged and neither community ever fully accepted the resulting Ospreys. The glorious history of Llanelli, which stretches back to 1872, now exists only in the lower Welsh Premier Division and the hallowed turf of their home ground, Stradey Park, was sold off to developers for 30 pieces of silver.
The unique Welsh tribal rivalry, which was fuelled by the fierce competition between towns, created an exceptional internal drive. This system, which produced so many extraordinary players, teams and coaches for over a century, has been maimed by those charged with its stewardship.
A few years ago the truth began to emerge from within the Welsh Rugby Union of cultural, organisational and financial mismanagement. A disastrous lack of investment in elite player and coach development has also contributed to Wales ending up where they are today.
So to please the masses and to divert attention away from the decades long mess of decisions that have put Welsh rugby in the mire, last week Wales got rid of their greatest coach of the past 40 years. They then appointed a young interim coach who has zero experience at the international level, provided him with a few days with the team and hoped all the rugby choirs in the valleys would spontaneously break out into a chorus of Kumbaya.
Like so many other decisions by Welsh rugby administrators they can only be described as panicked and shallow. After a coach has been let go the next match can produce an improved performance from the team. It is often termed as a dead cat bounce. The Welsh administrators are hoping their dead cat is on a trampoline.
I can honestly say that I have never witnessed a dead cat bouncing. The cat is, well, dead. However, while I possess only a basic grasp of the physics surrounding gravity we can conclude that a dead cat does not bounce very high. At any rate hardly a springboard to victory.
While the opening minutes of the game against Ireland will bring a Welsh reaction, in reality it will be an emotional glance back to a past Welsh golden age. An age when as a boy I huddled in front of a grainy black and white television entranced by the genius of Welsh players like Mervyn Davies, Barry John, Gareth Edwards, Phil Bennett and JPR Williams. Their feats inspired millions, including my brothers and I, to fall in love with rugby. When they mesmerised the rugby world it was impossible to conceive of the predicament that Welsh rugby finds itself in today.
As the last notes of Land of my Fathers drift into the ether the Welsh bounce will have passed its zenith and already be heading towards terra firma.
This year’s championship may yet be determined by points differential. After demolishing Wales, France, who Ireland play next, are on +42 points. Ireland are only +19. If France defeat Ireland in Dublin in the next round, points difference will become vital. So Ireland must be ruthless and accumulate as many points as possible in Cardiff.
While Ireland rightly are focused on winning the Grand Slam and backing themselves to see off both Wales and France, Simon Easterby and his coaches have made some surprising selections. While Thomas Clarkson deserves his first run on, Jack Boyle as loose head reserve has only played 54 minutes of Champions Cup rugby for Leinster against Bristol, and was not in the team for the other three European matches.
Many variables in rugby can sway an outcome, but without multiple Irish injuries or red cards there are not enough unknowns to save Wales.
Blame the Welsh administrators. Not Gatland or Sherratt.
