Stop me if you’ve heard this before.
Picking through the remnants of a damaging defeat one Irish regret stands above all else: the inability to fire in attack.
After 75 minutes on Saturday, before a late two-try salvo restored, not pride, but a poor imitation, Ireland had scored just seven points from eight entries into the French 22. At the same stage France had notched 29 from seven entries.
Is it easy to over-react to Ireland’s French defeat?
Were it not for two late tries this comfortably would have been Ireland’s most inefficient attacking display of the Andy Farrell era. According to Opta, Ireland “won” the game on expected points (35.8 vs 27). Such was the discrepancy in ruthlessness of both teams.
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Have France shown a blueprint for beating Ireland or did we see a statistical unicorn?
Ireland have lost five times in the last two years, and on each occasion the victor found a requisite defensive doggedness. Disrupt Ireland’s attacking flow, win the game. Whispers of a worrying trend have emerged. All teams have a kryptonite but is Ireland’s beginning to become more familiar?
As always with big picture questions the answer is never a straightforward yes or no. On the face of it New Zealand (twice), England, South Africa and France have all managed to stymie Ireland’s famed attack since 2023. How they did so, though, differs.
Crudely speaking we can identify two defensive strategies. Some teams mix-and-match, but by and large the first is to disrupt Ireland at source. Go after them at set-piece or the breakdown, win the ball back and keep it away from them.
Option two involves a degree of comfort playing without the ball. Let Ireland come at you. Compete at the breakdown when opportunities arise but for the most part keep men on their feet. Stay connected in defence, allow the Irish intricacies to play out in front of you and swarm when they run down blind alleys.
When losing to England in Twickenham, South Africa in Pretoria and New Zealand in Dublin – all in 2024 – Ireland defended more than they attacked. The victors quietened Ireland’s attack by keeping the ball away from them.
All three defeats saw Ireland struggle at set piece with a lineout success rate at 85 (England), 71 (South Africa) and 70 (New Zealand) per cent. Targeting breakdowns and collisions was another option. Against New Zealand in November, Ireland made 85 carries but won only 58 rucks, a retention rate of just over 68 per cent.
Perhaps these three defeats inspired Ireland’s attacking evolution during this Six Nations. Having lost three games in one calendar year to sides dominating possession, now was the time to become comfortable playing without the ball. Kick more. Back the defence. Become more selective in attack.
This largely worked. Ireland won the possession battle against England this year but made more metres with the boot than Steve Borthwick’s team. Scotland and Wales both had more possession but Ireland were efficient enough with the attacks they did have to win.
Which is why Saturday was so jarring. This was a defeat from the days of old, of Ireland looking punch-drunk running into a powerful defence happy to dominate collisions. They were supposed to be moving away from this.
Against New Zealand in the 2023 World Cup quarter-final Ireland made 173 carries. They entered the 22 on 15 occasions but only scored 1.4 point per visit. Contrast this to the All Blacks who made over 50 fewer carries, crossed the 22 six times but scored 3.6 points per visit.
Saturday reads eerily familiar. Ireland made 141 carries to France’s 96. After the late consolation scores, Ireland entered the red zone 11 times and came back with 2.1 points per visit. France did so 10 times with 3.6 points per entry.
The difference between 2023 and Saturday? In that quarter-final defeat, Ireland kicked 20 times in open play. That rose to 32 on Saturday. Ireland did what they were supposed to in terms of avoiding attacking inefficiency. To paraphrase France’s defence coach Shaun Edwards: they kicked the f**king ball.
Ireland kicked short rather than long, winning the ball back against a diminutive back three on multiple occasions. It helped ensure that 39 per cent of the Irish possession came in the opposition 22, their highest such figure of this Six Nations.
Which is why the narrative that France once again showed the blueprint for beating Ireland isn’t straightforward. Ireland have increased their kicking to avoid attacking inefficiency. While increasing their carry total from recent weeks, Ireland regardless kicked plenty on Saturday. It was still their most inefficient display in years.
Yes, France’s defence was excellent. They have now forced every team they’ve faced this year to underperform their expected points. Yet what cannot be labelled a trend is historic Irish inaccuracy inside the 22. France should have conceded had Dan Sheehan and Jamison Gibson-Park made better passing decisions in the opening quarter.
Teams have defended with men on their feet against Ireland in the past, notably Wales and Scotland in 2024, but Ireland still found a way through. Against this iteration of Ireland no one has capitalised on Irish profligacy with such a deadly cocktail of power and counter-attacking efficiency all while throwing in risky cross-kicks inside their own 22.
This game was a statistical unicorn. If this was caused by French tactics or Irish underperformance is up for debate. Other teams can mimic the defensive patterns, but can they replicate the speed of Louis Bielle-Biarrey, the power of the 7-1 split and the good fortune that such a selection did not backfire? Perhaps not.
Will that stop rugby’s copycat culture from kicking into gear? Only time will tell.
