URC semi-final: Leinster v Glasgow Warriors, Aviva Stadium, Saturday, 2.45pm – Live on RTÉ 2 and Premier Sports 1
If a week is a long time in politics, then eight weeks can be an age in rugby. Only two months ago, Leinster eviscerated Glasgow 52-0 in the Champions Cup quarter-final, yet rivers of water have flowed under the bridge since then.
Full-strength, flying and on a mission for that fifth star, Leinster were close to unbeatable in blowing away a weakened Glasgow. But three weeks later a curiously undercooked Leinster were beaten 37-34 in the semi-final by Northampton. Despite three successive wins, including an altogether tougher 13-5 defeat of Glasgow, Leinster have looked mentally scarred by that crushing setback ever since.
By contrast, Glasgow arrive buoyed by last week’s handsome win over the Stormers in the United Rugby Championship quarter-finals. A place in the final is at stake, along with the chance to win the last piece of silverware on offer this season.
The Leinster team that dismantled Glasgow eight weeks ago is not available in its entirety. Hugo Keenan and Josh van der Flier are the latest to join Tadhg Furlong, Caelan Doris, Robbie Henshaw and Garry Ringrose on the sidelines. Any team, even Leinster, would feel their loss.
Granted, this is partially offset by the return of Tommy O’Brien, while Scott Penny replaces Van der Flier and Dan Sheehan starts, with Rónan Kelleher reverting to the bench, in the personnel changes from last week’s lacklustre win over the Scarlets. Jimmy O’Brien, for his part, switches to fullback.
if the game gets sticky and it goes down to the last 15 minutes, you need to adapt and play the referee, play the opposition, the conditions
— Leo Cullen
True, Leinster still have eight of their dozen Lions, while the Warriors are missing two of their Lions quartet, Zander Fagerson and Huw Jones. But they should be very different to the team beaten 52-0. The talismanic and refreshed Sione Tuipulotu has hit the ground running in two return games, Josh McKay and Lions lock Scott Cummings have also returned from injury, as has influential South African number eight Henco Venter from suspension. It will be a starting 15 with eight changes from eight weeks ago.
A third clash in that time will contribute to a relatively low turnout through the doors at the Aviva Stadium. Ticket sales were approaching 15,000 as of Friday. In a sense, Leinster are being punished for earning five knock-out ties as well as TV-dictated kick-off times, but knock-out fatigue is not a new phenomenon and has compounded Aviva overload this season.
After all, only 9,346 turned up for the URC quarter-final on this weekend three long years ago when Leinster beat Glasgow 76-14. Just 11,565 attended the semi-final against the Bulls a week later.
That would prove to be the first of three semi-final defeats in succession which, coupled with three successive final losses in Europe and the recent Northampton defeat, should add to their motivation.
“There’s enough going on here to be motivated to get through this game at the weekend,” said Leinster coach Leo Cullen good-naturedly but, perhaps, a tad revealingly. “And, listen, if you get a performance lots of other things fall into place.
“But, if the game gets sticky and it goes down to the last 15 minutes, you need to adapt and play the referee, play the opposition, the conditions. We’re focused, we want to do well and that’s the focus this week.”
It’s as if Leinster are bracing themselves for a tight finish. Cullen joked aloud as to whether last week’s goalkicking shoot-out between Sharks and Munster in Durban was a factor in recalling Ross Byrne for his Aviva farewell and reverting to a 5-3 split.
One always senses that Cullen likes the insurance policy of Byrne on the bench to see out a close game. Certainly, last week’s restrictive territory-based tactics against the Scarlets were in keeping with the mantra coming out of Leinster’s HPC last Monday around “this is knock-out rugby”. With the forecast looking none too worse, it seems safe to presume that more of the same mentality and game plan will apply here.
“There’s a little bit around the conditions as well,” noted Cullen, citing “a fair old downpour” last weekend and the forecast.
“It’s knock-out games, particularly the way teams come and play against us. They’re not playing a huge amount of multi-phase rugby. We’ve seen teams come with strong kicking plans. You have to be able to adapt on the day.”
He also pointed to one of the two changes made by his counterpart Franco Smith to Glasgow’s 36-18 win over the Stormers, namely recalling Adam Hastings at outhalf in place of Tom Jordan, whose running game was so impressive last week.
“They’d a very different plan around kicking last time to when we played them the first time. Adam Hastings is in at number 10 instead of Tom Jordan. He’s more of a kicking 10, so that would suggest he might kick the ball more, but we’ll wait and see.”
Yet Glasgow are URC champions for a reason. They are a clever unit and like to come up with well-executed strike moves designed by Nigel Carolan trick plays. They are liable to play with more freedom. “As long as we don’t become predictable, that’s important,” said Smith last week.
Leinster look vulnerable too, but they have lost only two of 39 URC games at this venue. They also have a strong bench and, if they can rediscover some of their attacking accuracy and patience, they should edge a close encounter.
LEINSTER: Jimmy O’Brien; Tommy O’Brien, Jamie Osborne, Jordie Barrett, James Lowe; Sam Prendergast, Jamison Gibson-Park; Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan, Thomas Clarkson; Joe McCarthy, James Ryan; Ryan Baird, Scott Penny, Jack Conan (capt).
Replacements: Rónan Kelleher, Jack Boyle, Rabah Slimani, RG Snyman, Max Deegan, Luke McGrath, Ross Byrne, Ciarán Frawley.
GLASGOW WARRIORS: Josh McKay; Kyle Steyn (capt), Sione Tuipulotu, Tom Jordan, Kyle Rowe; Adam Hastings, George Horne; Jamie Bhatti, Gregor Hiddleston, Fin Richardson; Alex Samuel, Scott Cummings; Euan Ferrie, Rory Darge, Henco Venter.
Replacements: Johnny Matthews, Rory Sutherland, Sam Talakai, Max Williamson, Jack Mann, Macenzzie Duncan, Stafford McDowall, Jamie Dobie.
Referee: Andrea Piardi (FIR).
Forecast: Leinster to win.
