There is a world in which Ireland’s World Cup quarter-final on Sunday follows a familiar script.
On the one hand, France will look at New Zealand’s game plan and identify elements which can be copied. On the other, looking back to France’s dismantling of Ireland in the men’s Six Nations potentially foreshadows the upcoming contest at Sandy Park.
France have an overriding national rugby philosophy. Across both men’s and women’s teams. Their final pool win over South Africa at this World Cup made that abundantly clear.
They were happy playing with less possession than their opponent. When they did have the ball, France bullied the Springboks up front, both at set-piece and during open play. A six-two bench ensured the power game around the fringes didn’t let up. Pauline Bourdon Sansus ran the game from scrumhalf. On turnover ball, dangerous backline runners carved open a disorganised transition defence.
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Sound familiar?
Every French game in recent times is relevant to try to figure out how they might play on Sunday. The two most pertinent case studies, though, would be that recent South Africa win and their Six Nations trip to Belfast earlier this year when Ireland ran them reasonably close.
On both occasions, France had less of the ball, their opponents recording more carries. When they did have it, though, they did plenty of damage. They kick plenty.
On Sunday, three French tries came directly off the back of a dominant scrum. That particular set-piece also had joy against Ireland in the spring. Irish loosehead Niamh O’Dowd has improved as a scrummager, but there is no doubt that new cap Ellena Perry turned the scrum into a weapon when she started in round two against Japan. Her battle to be fit for Sunday looks to be crucial.
In Brighton, Ireland struggled to contain Kiwi carrying threats in the centre, secondrow and backrow. In Exeter this weekend, swap in French lock Madoussou Fall Raclot, centres Gabrielle Vernier and Nassira Konde plus backrow Charlotte Escudero. Ireland can’t afford to once again be slow off the line close to the ruck.
Akin to New Zealand, France’s attacking game plan will be relatively simple. Back their bigger athletes to do damage. Target outhalf Dannah O’Brien in the defensive line. Play at a relentless speed close to the ruck, not allowing an already outmatched defence time to take away the space. A French quick ruck ball figure of 83 per cent against South Africa was, quite frankly, ludicrously high.
There are differences between that South Africa contest and when Ireland last played the French. Unlike South Africa, they made more line breaks and post-contact metres than France. The Irish attack has shown they can have success against this opposition.
To repeat the dose, the lateral play in Brighton should give way to more direct punch in Exeter. The side-to-side offering, O’Brien taking the ball under pressure behind forward pods which failed to commit defenders, must be replaced by bigger carriers punching through the line. When Ireland had success against France, their top forward carrier by volume and by metres was – surprise, surprise – Aoife Wafer. Her fitness is, once again, a vital narrative.
If it all sounds simple, that’s because it is. There are a handful of novel ideas which could help. Béibhinn Parsons and Aoife Dalton both made three carries against New Zealand. As Ireland’s two most powerful backs, that is nowhere near enough. They need to be game-planned into higher workloads. Bring Parsons off her wing and Dalton in from 13. Draw up running lines featuring late swings down the short side, away from the teeth of the defence.
Ireland’s kick strategy is another feature which needs improvement. Variation can help counter a swarming defence. Ireland have one kicking ploy: give it to O’Brien and watch her go long. It makes sense, given her left boot is arguably the strongest in the world game.
Yet teams have figured out how to counter. When kicking behind a retreating attack, New Zealand either pressured O’Brien into hanging on to the ball or ran back misplaced efforts with interest. During the World Cup warm-ups, Canada stacked the backfield to have numbers on the counter. In the Six Nations, France simply kicked it back, keeping the ball on the pitch until Ireland made a mistake.
[ Rusty Ireland rue missed opportunities in opening defeat to FranceOpens in new window ]
On Sunday, O’Brien tried just one short chip over the top. It led to a scramble inside the New Zealand 22. If defenders sit deep, go short. Expect Ireland to still kick plenty this week but with more variety.
All of the above analysis presupposes that Ireland will be the physically weaker side, that France have a power advantage. On paper, they have all the trump cards: a stronger scrum, the ability to beat Ireland in the carry, backline threats and strong boots to win bouts of kick-tennis.
There is a scenario, however unlikely, where an inspired Irish forward pack finds a way to parity. The scrum could hold firm while the lineout offers an avenue for creativity, as it did during the Six Nations. Power up front and clever kicks in behind could open up space for Ireland’s outside backs. All of which would require a significant physical and psychological recovery from the New Zealand defeat.
Scott Bemand has inevitably been planning for this game ever since the World Cup draw was made. Decent physicality and some intricate lineout work narrowed the gap to France last time out. If it is to keep shrinking, to the point where Ireland can pull off an upset, he’ll have to coax all of the above – and then some – out of his charges.
