Ireland are too old. Their game plan has stagnated. Attacking brilliance has started to desert them. Insert your own version of the dominant narratives swirling around the starting gun of this November’s international window.
Whatever you believe, it’s clear Ireland will soon prompt a discussion on rugby’s famed “E word”: evolution. Midway through a World Cup cycle, this is the time where teams figure out how they want to play come a trip to Australia in 2027. While also looking to win games in the here and now.
During the last Six Nations, Ireland’s tactical evolution was pretty simple to figure out. With ball in hand, the volume of kicking increased while phases decreased. No more running out of steam, building up high phase counts against well-stocked defences – the defeat to France aside.
Expect plenty of kicking over the next month. What, if anything else, will change as that game plan continues to settle? Normally, you have to employ a bit of guesswork and figure out trends match by match.
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Not this time.
Ireland have already told us what to expect. “Looking at the way the game’s going now, the transitional attack and the counterattack, we’re just having a deep look at that area of the game and how we can make the most of those opportunities,” attack coach Andrew Goodman told the Aotearoa Rugby Pod.
Ireland want more return from the scraps. Strike while defences are disorganised. Have more attacking X-factor.
It makes sense. If shifting away from a possession-dominant game plan, Ireland need to do more with limited ball. Good decision-making is crucial within a handful of phases of winning the ball back.
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“It’s a big part of the game when defences aren’t set as well as they would be off set piece,” Goodman said.
“You’ve got to be so precise with your scan, communications and skill set in that time frame to keep the opposition in chaos.
“A team only takes one or two phases and then they’re back set in that defensive line.”
What, exactly, do we mean by counterattack? Turnover is an obvious place to start. How do you make a quick break after Tadhg Beirne swoops on the floor? More often than not, the answer is immediately to ship the ball to a playmaker sprinting up from the backfield.
The other area of note is the aerial game. We’re a while into World Rugby’s focus on penalising those who block chasers haring after box kicks or garryowens. Chasing teams are now more likely to win back possession further up the field against an opposition set for kick receipt, not a well-manned defensive line. Win the ball, make an immediate pass and you can be away. Teams with the best aerial hunters will become harder to beat. Watch out for England’s 19-year-old sensation Noah Caluori.
“You’ve seen through the Rugby Championship, the team that can dominate the air, or the scraps battle on the ground, and then can transition well into the attack or defence, the best are the teams that are often coming out on top,” Goodman said.
Translation: Ireland will continue to kick plenty and hunt for collision turnovers while improving their ability to strike off the scraps.
Since the start of the 2025 Six Nations, Ireland have scored 37 tries. Seventy per cent of these originated from set-piece. Twenty-two per cent came via kick return with 3 per cent on turnover ball. Five per cent originated from quick-tap penalties.
On the face of it, this represents a balanced return. Ireland can score in different ways, protecting the attack from the one-dimensional phase play which has been a weakness in the high-profile defeats of the Andy Farrell era.
Of those 37 tries, though, 20 came on the summer tour to Georgia and Portugal. In the latter match, there were times when Ireland were scoring, fielding a kick-off and immediately scoring again, poor Portuguese tackling inflating the kick-return numbers.
Given the quality of opposition, these figures don’t give an accurate reflection of Ireland’s ability to score in different ways.
Of Ireland’s 17 Six Nations tries last year, 15 came via set-piece. Just one was off kick return – Dan Sheehan’s memorable effort in round one against England – while the other was a consolation score from a quickly-tapped penalty against France.
One try from kick return and zero off turnover ball.
Contrast this to the southern hemisphere teams, some of whom Ireland will face over the next four weeks. South Africa scored 48 per cent of their Rugby Championship tries off transition ball. Argentina were next best on 36 per cent while Australia’s counter clicked to the tune of 29 per cent. Even the All Blacks, whose lack of counterattack has caused murmurs of discontent in the Kiwi press, bettered Ireland’s Six Nations total with 9 per cent.
We’re starting to see what Goodman was on about.
One solution that is straightforward to conceive, yet difficult to achieve, is the profile of athlete available to Ireland.
Pace kills when capitalising on space in disorganised defensive lines. Tommy O’Brien is a welcome selection in that regard. Rob Baloucoune’s hat-trick for Ulster last weekend should keep him in the long-term view if he stays fit. Those two aside, Irish rugby isn’t blessed with speedsters ready for the international game.
Given that disadvantage, other solutions must be found. To be fair to the Irish coaching staff, they have tried to think their way through the problem. The one kick-return try during last year’s Six Nations, Sheehan’s aforementioned beauty, came once a clever four-man pod opened a gap one phase after England kicked downfield.
It should also be said that of Ireland’s 15 “structured” tries, three came via attacking kicks off the back of set-pieces. The most memorable was Jamie Osborne’s score in Cardiff after James Lowe batted down Jamison Gibson-Park’s cross-kick. Ireland are capable of manufacturing aerial bedlam when on the ball. They’re not as good at turning defence into attacking chaos.
Simon Easterby spoke after February’s England victory of his satisfaction at how Ireland scored more often than not within three phases of receiving the ball. Most of that damage, though, came off set-piece, Goodman earning a solid reputation for conjuring effective strike moves.
The next step is to marry that efficiency with counterattacking threat. Ireland’s ability to score from their own kicking game has started to manifest, as has improved transition play on the summer tour.
All of this has clearly been an internal focus, Ireland wanting to become a counterattacking force. Time will tell if they have the tools to do so.
