Heading into next weekend’s final round of pool games, only seven teams have ensured themselves of qualification for the Champions Cup Round of 16, while only two teams cannot reach the knockout stages, meaning that the other 15 are still in the mix.
The tournament organisers will no doubt cite this as evidence that the format works, but as well as being imbalanced and too short, it remains difficult to comprehend. It’s also surely a flaw that a team like the Bulls, who have shipped 157 points in losing all three games to date, can still qualify.
Of course, much of the weekend’s focus will be on the jostling for seedings and earning home advantage as far into the knockout stages as possible.
The top two teams in each pool will have a home tie in the Round of 16, while the four pool winners would also have home advantage in the quarter-finals were they to reach the last eight (meantime, the fifth placed sides will take a detour into the Challenge Cup, meaning only the four bottom placed sides drop out completely).
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The biggest prize is a top two seeding, for in the three seasons of this format the top two reached the final in 2022-23 (Leinster and L Rochelle) and in 2023-24 (Toulouse and Leinster), and only Northampton’s semi-final win over Leinster in the Aviva last season broke the trend. Even then, the final was contested between the first and third seeds. Hence, while Bristol and Bordeaux Bègles have already qualified, they meet in a Pool 4 shoot-out for first place on Sunday in Ashton Gate.
All told, of the 42 knockout ties leading up to the last three finals, home sides have advanced on a whopping 37 occasions – an 88 per cent winning ratio. In 24 Round of 16 ties, only twice has the away side won, and both times by a point – La Rochelle beating Stormers 22-21 in Cape Town two seasons ago and Munster winning 25-24 in La Rochelle last season.
Of the dozen quarter-finals, the ratio is 10-2 in favour of the home sides, the exceptions being Harlequins’ 42-41 win in Bordeaux two seasons ago and Toulouse winning 21-18 in Toulon last season courtesy of a Thomas Ramos penalty with the last kick.
All of which emphasises how profound the ramifications from this coming weekend could be come April and May. That said, Toulouse, Munster and La Rochelle could all be floating around dangerously as away sides come Sunday evening.
Pool 1
Glasgow can seal not only first place in this pool by beating Saracens in Sunday’s weekend finale but can guarantee themselves of a top two seeding with a bonus point victory.
However, Saracens have been something of a bogey side for the Warriors. The three-time champions have effectively already qualified and could overtake Glasgow with a bonus point win while denying the Warriors one.
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The big surprises is that six-time winners Toulouse have to beat Sale Sharks on Saturday evening to stay alive after losses away to Glasgow and Saracens. That said, a bonus point win could secure second place were Glasgow to beat Saracens. The Sale Sharks have qualified but could be edged out of the top two.
The Durban Sharks at home to Clermont in Saturday’s lunchtime offering looks like the weekend’s deadest of rubbers. Clermont, three-time finalists and probably the best team never to win this competition in their pomp, are a troubled shadow of their former selves and one of only two teams already eliminated.
Pool 2
The only pool in which no team has yet to mathematically ensure progress, albeit Bath effectively have done so in advance of hosting Edinburgh on Friday night in what amounts to a shoot-out for first place.
Edinburgh should progress too, although were they to lose the Scots would probably miss out on a home Round of 16 tie and could be squeezed out altogether.
Ever the Drama Kings, Munster are in win-or-bust territory against Castres at Thomond Park on Saturday evening; ie win and they’re through, lose and they’re out. That said, a victory, especially with a bonus point, could elevate them into the top two and earn a first home tie since the quarter-final loss in a goal-kicking shoot-out against Toulouse at the Avvia four seasons ago.
Bath beating Edinburgh would open that door, and then Munster would need Gloucester to beat Toulon in what could also amount to a win-or-bust tie for both of them. The likeliest scenario for Munster is a fourth Round of 16 away tie in succession.
Pool 3
Leinster and Harlequins have already qualified, and Leo Cullen’s men can win the pool by beating Bayonne – the only other side already eliminated – at the Stade Jean-Dauger on Saturday afternoon. That would secure a top four seeding, while they will also have an eye on a top two seeding.
For that to be possible, Leinster would need either Glasgow (preferably) or Bordeaux Bègles not to maintain their maximum points tally with bonus point wins, or better still were either to lose.
Harry Byrne’s match-winning penalty in Leinster’s Houdini-esque 25-24 win over La Rochelle in last Saturday night’s thriller has left Ronan O’Gara’s team in fourth place. Granted, a Stormers win over Leicester in Cape Town on Saturday, while denying the Tigers a bonus point, would ensure La Rochelle progress before they host Harlequins on Sunday afternoon.
Such an outcome would also put a home Round of 16 tie beyond reach for La Rochelle, who ultimately need only to match Leicester’s result to qualify.
Pool 4
The Sunday lunchtime showdown for top place at Ashton Gate between Bristol and Bordeaux Bègles shouldn’t be dull anyway, given they have scored 44 tries between them at an average of over seven each per game. Quite simply, whoever wins tops the pool.
However, the loser could well be squeezed out of a home tie by Northampton should they subsequently beat the Scarlets at home, especially with a bonus point, which seems highly likely. Either way, the top three have qualified, although one of them will add to the list of dangerous away floaters.
On Friday night Pau host the Bulls, who have lost by an average of 23 points in three games but are still in contention, in what amounts to a shoot-out for fourth place. Pau, almost despite themselves, should advance.
