At risk of employing the old ‘If my aunty had wheels, she’d be a bike’ argument, here goes nothing...
Had Reda Wardi and Antoine Hastoy not got in each other’s way on Saturday night, if Simeli Daunivucu’s offload had not been spilled, if the same man had run through Sam Prendergast instead of trying to step him, if Grégory Alldritt had tried to charge through the same defender instead of passing inside, we would not be talking about Harry Byrne’s late kicking heroics.
We would instead be focusing on Leinster’s defence. Plenty are still questioning their system under Jacques Nienaber, even after the last-gasp victory over La Rochelle.
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When Leinster’s defence has worked, critics acclaimed Nienaber. When it hasn’t, he’s been treated as an invasive species in some quarters. Hullabaloo aside, there is good reason for fair criticism. In three high-profile matches of late, the province’s inability to stop the opposition either cost them or should have done so. Northampton scored 37 points in last season’s Champions Cup semi-final. Munster found 31 at Croke Park. La Rochelle’s plundered 24 but on another day could easily have come away with 30, if not 40.
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Concerns shouldn’t stem just from high-profile off-days. Nienaber himself has said that for all the line breaks, dominant tackles and post-contact metres that can be measured, points allowed and tries scored are the most important metrics. Last season, in 28 games, Leinster conceded an average of 14.7 points per match. That was an improvement on Nienaber’s first season, when Leinster allowed 19 points per outing – albeit the South African only joined midway through the campaign after winning a second World Cup.
This year, 12 games in, Leinster are allowing 21.5 points on average. That’s almost a full converted try worse than last season’s benchmark.
A dozen matches does not represent as reliable a sample size as a full season. Still, the question is worth exploring. Is Leinster’s system now a problem or do other factors explain the dwindling defensive performance?
Nienaber’s structure is quite simple. The aim is to make a mess of the breakdown, slowing possession in order to set up a blitzing defensive line. Opponents see their skill set and decision-making tested under pressure. The bet being made is that, more often than not, they will fail to execute. If attackers do get outside the narrow line, then Leinster sprint to the corner flag and scramble like hell.
Parts of this system are working reasonably well. Some of La Rochelle’s butchered chances last weekend can be explained by Leinster’s corner-flagging. Dan Sheehan had one prominent example, forcing Ihaia West into an error, while Andrew Osborne spent much of his evening sprinting from touchline to touchline in search of last-ditch tackles.
As of January 5th (the most up-to-date figures available), Leinster allow a try or line break off 26.4 per cent of their missed tackles this season. That’s the 12th best rate of the 40 teams in top-flight European (and South African) competition. Not quite top-end scramble, but better than midtable.
There are, though, problems with the system. All modes of defending have their weaknesses. Northampton created as many rucks in midfield as possible, avoiding the centre/wing channels where blitzing defenders do their utmost damage. Munster used a kicking game to exploit space in the backfield left by onrushing defenders, ditto Ulster when they won at the RDS in 2024.
Time and again, La Rochelle threw wide passes to playmakers standing so deep the rush couldn’t get to them. Offloading was also a crucial component, allowing support to get around the blitz. Uini Atonio and Will Skelton were used as clever pivots, drawing the attention of the first wave of rushers.
What also hasn’t helped Leinster is a change in officiating relating to the breakdown. They have pushed the boat out in recent years, players swinging up through the side of the ruck to disrupt. If a tackler on his feet was already part of the breakdown, was he technically entering through the side?
It was a grey area that, according to Munster boss Clayton McMillan, was supposed to be clamped down on this season. He wasn’t happy when Leinster got away with a few cases over Christmas at Thomond Park. A week later, with a more experienced referee, both Leinster and Connacht were penalised for disrupting by swinging around the side of the ruck. They need to find other ways of disrupting opposition ball.
La Rochelle showed the danger of Leinster’s failure to slow down the breakdown. Fifty-two per cent of their rucks lasted fewer than three seconds, thanks in part to some sensational attacking breakdown work. They adopted a simple ploy of tackling the tackler, smashing back would-be ruck disrupters and giving scrumhalf Nolann Le Garrec clean ball. Quick possession means the blitz doesn’t have time to set, reducing its effectiveness.
All of which deals with wrinkles within Leinster’s philosophy. Individual, non-system errors have also proven costly. Robbie Henshaw’s missed first-phase tackle on Daunivucu set up one of La Rochelle’s countless botched opportunities. Leinster’s kick chase was poor against Northampton. Munster pinched an intercept try at Croke Park.
Discipline is another factor. Much like Irish rugby as a whole, Leinster’s lack of discipline is a problem. In 12 matches this year, they have shipped 14 cards (13 yellows and a red). Any side playing so often with deflated numbers is eventually going to ship points. Even though they didn’t score during that period, arguably La Rochelle’s best opportunities and certainly their most consistent period of pressure came while Joe McCarthy was in the bin.
Failings in other areas must also be noted. Leinster’s misfiring attack has been a subject of much discussion this season, even with improvements in the last fortnight. A straightforward way of alleviating pressure on the defence is to hold on to the ball. Errors in the kicking game and set-piece can also be fatal if they fail to give the defence a breather.
We saw multiple examples on Saturday. An inability to secure possession after one Tommy O’Brien break saw La Rochelle kick a 50:22. Rónan Kelleher’s overthrown lineout allowed Levani Botia tear up the field. West’s first try came from Joshua Kenny being stripped of the ball while trying to run out of the 22. Twice Jamison Gibson-Park kicked to touch, only not deep enough to prevent a quick lineout. La Rochelle kept the pressure on.
Granted, this is a chicken-or-egg scenario. Is Leinster’s defence struggling because they have more defending to do because of errors elsewhere, or are mistakes on the ball a symptom of elevated fatigue caused by a failing defensive system? It’s probably a bit of both.
For all the concerns, Nienaber’s system has evidence of success. Glasgow have, according to multiple categories, the URC’s best attack yet they were nilled by Leinster in a European knockout match. Ditto Harlequins. There is plenty of internal faith, provided Leinster have the big boys to disrupt the breakdown and the fast lads to blitz out wide. They missed plenty of the former – such as Messrs Porter, Furlong and Snyman – through injury against La Rochelle.
As always when questions come up with Leinster, answers won’t be found until season’s end. They have the quality to win at this point in the calendar even with misfiring aspects of their game.
It’s a fascinating dynamic. The number of attack coaches finding wrinkles to exploit is growing but Leinster’s ability to bend but not break ultimately came up trumps on Saturday. It will continue to be tested all the way to Bilbao. Should they get that far.
