Scott Robertson’s abrupt departure from his role as the All Blacks’ head coach serves to further damage much of the perceived wisdom around the roles of international head coaches and four-year World Cup cycles, not least in New Zealand.
Granted, Rassie Erasmus’ first stint as South Africa’s head coach disproved the theory that World Cup winners had to have a head coach in situ for the full, four-year cycle. Despite assurances to the contrary, Erasmus ended his tenure as head coach of Munster just a season and a half into a three-year contract in December 2017 after being lured home by the SARU to become its Director of Rugby.
Erasmus also assumed the role of Springboks head coach the following March 1st, 2018, less than two years out from the 2019 World Cup. Yet he oversaw a dramatic turnaround and despite overseeing just 19 Tests before the 2019 tournament in Japan, the Springboks became world champions.
Why did the All Blacks drop a coaching bombshell?
Kitch Christie also broke the mould, being appointed in mid-1994 after Ian McIntosh was sacked following a series defeat to the All Blacks in New Zealand, before guiding the Boks to World Cup triumph on home soil in 1995.
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Rob Macqueen was also appointed just over two years out from leading the Wallabies to World Cup triumph in 1999 after Greg Smith stepped down due to ill-health.
After Brian Lochore led the All Blacks to the inaugural 1987 World Cup after taking over in 1985, Bob Dwyer led the Wallabies to triumph in 1991 in his first of successive four-year cycles, and Clive Woodward had been head coach of England for six years when they won the 2003 World Cup, the RFU having kept faith in him after the 1999 tournament.
Jake White also had a full four-year cycle as head coach of the Springboks team which won the 2007 World Cup, while the NZRU were rewarded for keeping faith in Graham Henry after 2007 quarter-final loss to France in Cardiff when he led the All Blacks to their first triumph since 1987 at the end of his second cycle in 2011.
Having been Henry’s assistant for eight years, Steve Hansen then coached the All Blacks to retain the William Webb Ellis trophy in 2015 and stayed on to lead them to the semi-finals in 2019, while the Springboks retained the trophy with Erasmus still at the helm.
Generally speaking therefore, a head coach for at least one full cycle and ideally over a settled coaching team, is the best formula for winning a World Cup.
The NZRU appeared to believe in this principle as much as anyone. On leaving New Zealand after Ireland’s historic series win over the All Blacks in 2022, Foster’s face adorned the front page of The Herald in a manner more befitting a wanted man, or at any rate public enemy number one.
From this remove, the clamour for his head on a platter seemed much more intense than for Robertson’s removal at the end of the All Blacks’ end-of-year tour. Yet the NZR opted to stick rather than twist, partly due to a delegation of leading players who back it is believed, albeit with the key appointment of Joe Schmidt as an assistant coach.
Ultimately, the All Blacks were only beaten by a point in the 2023 World Cup final, despite playing the majority of the match with 14 men after Sam Cane’s red card, and could feel aggrieved over a disallowed try.
Faced with the same choice this time, an internal review led to reports in New Zealand that leading players were unhappy with Robertson, on top of two assistant coaches, Leon MacDonald and Jason Holland, resigning in the past two years. So, this time, in very un-NZRU fashion, they opted to twist.
Yet it wasn’t a shock, for listening to Kiwi supporters and journalists, it was clear that despite being eminently likable, Robertson had not won the hearts and minds of All Blacks players and supporters. On foot a record 42-10 hammering at home by the Springboks and a loss to the Pumas, he had built a rod for his own back by declaring their goal for the November tour was Grand Slam, in part because he had to do so.
Robertson’s departure also debunks the long-held opinion in New Zealand rugby that the head coach be appointed from within the system. He had, after all, led to the Crusaders to seven successive Super Rugby titles.
Even so, the appointment of ex-Japan coach Jamie Joseph from the Highlanders looks a fait accompli, as he has also coached the All Blacks XV. Whoever it is may only have 17 Tests between now and the 2027 World Cup in Australia. History suggests it’s a taller order for a head coach in a curtailed pre-World Cup stint, but that it’s also not impossible.
Robertson had been disappointed not to get the job four years ago, and again in 2022. It’s a tough gig coaching, especially being a head coach and though he won’t want anyone’s pity, it’s hard not to feel a little sorry for him. The more astute realise the virtues in playing the long game, for this saga is another reminder to be wary of what you wish for, especially when it comes to coaching your country’s national side.
Of course, Robertson is young enough to rebound and, perhaps beginning in the Premiership with Harlequins, while still having a rewarding career in coaching. But he’ll almost never coach the All Blacks again.
Once you reach the mountain top, there is only one direction from there.
