Lee Trevino once said golf is a game of adjustments. Just when you think you have it figured out, it reminds you that you don’t.
The results in the Six Nations last weekend endorsed that assertion, as they certainly didn’t pan out the way I’d thought beforehand. I had envisaged England grinding out a win against a stoic Italy, and anticipated that France’s sheer quality would be enough, even if Scotland stressed them at times during the game.
In some ways this puts Ireland’s victory over Wales in context: a little bit sticky, but not as seismic as other events on a weekend that rocked the foundations of northern hemisphere rugby.
Are Scotland primed to finally beat Ireland?
France, a little like England, have all the riches in the world from a player and financial perspective, and should by all accounts be pulling away from the other home nations. This Six Nations has highlighted emphatically that this is just not the case.
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France imploded in the opening 60 minutes: beaten in the air, undone at the breakdown and lacking in the basics associated with attacking intent. It was only in the final quarter that they rallied and closed the gap to 10 points while grabbing a bonus point.
That fight, at least, points to something within the group worth holding on to. The fact they kept playing to the whistle, kept scoring, shows heart. It may yet be enough to win the tournament if they can manage the England challenge in Paris on Saturday night.
Questions will grow again around Fabien Galthié, in the same way they have around Steve Borthwick. The French head coach’s ability to win the crucial games remain questionable at best. Fifteen months out from a World Cup, you wonder whether France possess the same mental strength as New Zealand or South Africa.
England’s complete abdication against Italy was puzzling to watch. Borthwick made significant changes to the team composition with little or no improvement, a confusion that extended from the coaching box to the pitch, where players seemed at odds with the patterns.
Italy, on the other hand, had individuals taking control of the occasion. Tommaso Menoncello was outstanding and that helps to elevate those around him.
I was conscious of being dispassionate when teasing out what might happen in Ireland’s game against Wales.
The visitors’ performance was a reminder of the pitfalls of predicting without being privy to what happens behind closed doors. I felt the nature of their defeat to Scotland would prove Wales’s undoing: too much baggage, too many doubts, all the wrong emotions distracting them as they headed to Dublin.
Yet the Welsh defensive display was almost enough to knock Ireland off balance. Andy Farrell’s side relied on a strong bench to see the game home and claim the bonus point that, in theory, keeps the Six Nations title within reach.
This match was a reminder of what is possible for a team in the foothills of turning things around. It always starts with the defence. Under Steve Tandy, a defensive guru himself, the incremental improvement is becoming visible week on week. Find an area to improve, build confidence from it, and good things tend to follow.
The Welsh defence has been growing throughout this championship and, unsurprisingly, that defensive solidity is now generating attacking opportunity through turnovers. Wales owned momentum for large parts of this match, something few would have predicted.
[ Six Nations gives us a weekend you would hardly believeOpens in new window ]
Ireland huffed and puffed for periods and – given it is Cheltenham week, you’ll excuse me the use of a racing metaphor – they had a little in hand, even when the game was close, and were able to pull away down the stretch.
The attacking intent was there in flashes, the continuity play excellent in the passages when it came together. Jamison Gibson-Park lifted the ball and moved it away from rucks quickly, Stu McCloskey brought team-mates into play through his offloading, but the overall attacking patterns were a little fitful when weighed against the 80 minutes.
Ireland struggled to find space at times, and a lot of positive momentum was lost or undone completely, partly through Irish inaccuracy, partly down to the outstanding defensive work rate of Wales. Alex Mann’s 32 tackles was a stunning individual effort.
Former England and Lions outhalf Jonny Wilkinson spoke on social media recently about not always having the time and space to do what you want in a game. His point was the distinction between being rushed and being fast. When you’re rushed, mistakes happen. When you’re fast, you can still be in control even in tight spaces.
That framing felt very apt watching Ireland. Wales closed down the space, and once Joe Hawkins, James Botham and Mann began making reads through the attacking line of green shirts, Ireland looked increasingly rushed with ball in hand.
Passes hit inside shoulders, balls went to ground, bringing promising attacking moves to a premature end. A touch of conservatism crept in and Farrell acknowledged it afterwards, admitting Ireland were guilty of overplaying a little. Not a disaster given the result was secured, and the ambition was clearly the same as at Twickenham, but the execution needs refining when space gets crowded.
While France will still be in pole position for the title, a lot of eyes this weekend will be drawn to Dublin and Cardiff. Italy have the rarest of chances to capture hearts while breaking a record in winning a third match in a single Six Nations.
[ Gerry Thornley: Six Nations championship in the balance after pulsating weekendOpens in new window ]
The match at the Aviva will serve as a genuine benchmarking process between two teams moving in interesting directions. Ireland have comfortably had Scotland’s measure for over a decade. But the Scots are currently the form team in this championship, and Saturday will answer a question that’s been quietly building. Have they closed the gap on Ireland, or have Ireland regressed? Probably both, to some degree.
Scotland will have to come and play. Any attempt to shut Ireland down as Wales and Italy have done will only play into the home side’s hands. The silver lining for Ireland is that if Scotland commit to playing expansive rugby, it creates exactly the space Ireland need, if they’re brave enough to go after it.
On a personal note, not entirely separate from rugby, I’m cycling over 1,200km with former Scotland and Lions flanker Rob Wainwright and six others, as well as more than 150 cycling teams, to raise much-needed funds and awareness for motor neurone disease (MND).
We left Melrose on Tuesday morning, making our way to Pembroke and then from Rosslare up to the Aviva. The charity was started by the late, great Doddie Weir, and is back in focus following Lewis Moody’s recent diagnosis. Please support if you can. No amount is too small.
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