It’s been something of a slow burner but the concluding pool stages of the Heineken Champions Cup look like bringing the competition vibrantly to life in time-honoured fashion.
The penultimate round of pool matches finds the Irish provinces all in contention, but all facing what probably amount to must-win games this weekend as well.
Two more wins would see all three through, but two defeats would eliminate them and one could seriously damage their chances of progress.
Munster are the only side to lead their group, but Pool Two is by some distance the most competitive, with all four teams still in the mix.
Most probably, a refreshed Peter O’Mahony will need to lead them to more victories, away to Gloucester on Friday night, and again at home to Exeter at Thomond Park on Saturday week, in order to advance for the 18th time in the last 20 years.
Munster are effectively therefore already in play-off territory, backed into something of a corner. Then again, that’s generally when they deliver.
Leinster and Ulster each host French pool leaders, Toulouse and Racing, in potentially tumultuous pool summit meetings on Saturday. Leinster, likely to be missing Johnny Sexton, Robbie Henshaw and Devin Toner as well as the suspended James Lowe, will look to a hard-nosed pack and Ross Byrne to defuse Toulouse, who are in hot form – 12 games unbeaten – and also keep Antoine Dupont, Stefane Guitone and Cheslin Kolbe in check more than they did in the first meeting last October.
Two wins would see the champions through and, in all probability, ditto Ulster, who will be missing the lineout skills, carrying and choke tackling of Iain Henderson, although the likely fitness of Jacob Stockdale, who has scored in every round, is hugely encouraging.
Connacht are in a near identical position when hosting their European Challenge Cup pool leaders, Sale Sharks, at the Sportsground tomorrow (kick-off 3pm).
Points difference
If two clubs in the same pool are equal on match points at the end of the pool stage, their ranking will be determined by the results of the two matches played between them. The first criteria would be the match points from the two games, followed by the best aggregate points difference from the two matches and then the most tries.
If clubs have not played each other previously in the pool stage, qualification/ranking will be determined by, firstly, the best aggregate points difference from the pool stage or, if equal, the number of tries scored in the pool stage.
As things stand, the groups which seem more likely to produce the three best runners-up are Pool One (either Toulouse or Leinster), Three (Glasgow and Saracens) and Pool Five (Edinburgh or Montpellier), although Ulster could still emerge from Pool Four as one of the best second-placed sides even if they lost at home to Racing on Saturday.
In a change of format from recent years, instead of the convoluted format for the semi-finals, put simply the higher the ranking the more beneficial that will prove to be come the knock-out stages. In other words, a top-two ranking would come with the additional carrot of home country advantage in the semi-finals.
Racing and Saracens are best placed as things stand, with Toulouse next, although Leinster could still work their way into the top two were they to win their final two matches. Perhaps significantly, Leinster have the best points difference and tries scored in the competition.
Pool One
Saturday’s 1pm kick-off looks like a shoot-out for top spot in this group. Victory for Toulouse, provided they deny Leinster two bonus points, would guarantee them first place and qualification given the head-to-head record.
However, Leinster still have their fate in their own hands, and know that two wins will secure top spot. Perhaps advantageously for Leinster, Pool One is the last to conclude on Sunday week, so they will know how all four other pools have panned out the night before they play Wasps at the Ricoh Arena and should, therefore, know exactly what’s required of them in terms of qualification/ranking for the knock-out stages.
Pool Two
As suspected, the most competitive of the five groups with four points separating Munster from Gloucester, whom they meet in Kingsholm this evening, and hence all can still qualify.
Munster, it’s true, have the most wriggle room, in that they would not necessarily be out of contention were they defeated by Gloucester. But in all probability they will have to win their remaining two games, not least as it seems highly unlikely that this pool will provide one of the best runners-up.
Were Munster to win and Exeter to beat an inconsistent Castres at Sandy Park on Sunday, then as was also expected from the outset, all roads would eventually lead to another of those titanic Saturday evening, Anglo-Irish finales.
Pool Three
From the halfway point this had already become a two-horse race, and the odds are that both Saracens and Glasgow will advance, most probably in that order. After a 22-game unbeaten run, Saracens have suffered two defeats in three games, but presuming they win away on Sunday against Lyon, the tournament’s only debutants and only side without a solitary point, then in all likelihood they will secure qualification with a game to spare.
Glasgow would be well placed to advance were they to beat Cardiff at home on Sunday, all the more so with a bonus point, although there would be no guarantees. That would also set up a pool decider away to Saracens on Saturday week.
Pool Four
Ulster have given themselves a real chance of qualification thanks to their maximum haul against the Scarlets. Victory on Saturday against Racing would leave them well placed to advance, and they would not be without hope in defeat.
With Finn Russell pulling the strings, and developing an understanding with kindred spirit Simon Zebo, last year's runners-up look like a team on a Euro mission. Two more wins would almost certainly secure home advantage all the way to the final in Newcastle.
BT Sport have chosen the Scarlets-Leicester game for their prime time, Saturday evening slot, but both are effectively out of the running. The vagaries of television scheduling!
Pool Five
Surprise, surprise indeed. Against the odds, expectations and budgets, Edinburgh (8/1 to win the group) and Newcastle (22/1) initially set the pace against the financial heavyweights from Montpellier and Toulon, and the latter remain completely off the pace domestically and here, with Montpellier (seven defeats in their last 10 matches) not much better off.
Edinburgh deservedly lead the group after their double over Newcastle, and victory away to Toulon – a real possibility on form – would leave Richard Cockerill’s men well placed, although either way a Montpellier win over Newcastle at home on Saturday will set up a pool decider in Edinburgh next Friday.
