Pool Two: Leinster v Wasps
RDS, Sunday, 5.15pm, BT Sport
The return to Europe does not find Leinster in the rudest of health, on the pitch at any rate. Struggling to field anything resembling their strongest XV, whatever that may now be, the poor forecast adds to the foreboding as well as the possibility of empty seats.
By contrast, Wasps ought to be at war off the pitch, losing money and on the brink of relocating 80 miles up to the midlands; yet judging by last week’s rout of Bath, that bombshell seems almost to have galvanised them. Admittedly, their three wins have all been at High Wycombe, whereas they have lost away to Saracens, Harlequins and Sale.
Leinster also have previous for games such as this. They have lost only three of their last 29 home games in the Heineken Cup, their only reversal at the RDS being the opening pool game five years, when the defending champions were beaten 12-9 by London Irish.
Greatest player
Of course, they could never remain the best team in Europe forever, but compared to the Leinster team that won a third Cup in four years in 2012, they are struggling. In addition to their greatest player of all time, they are missing their captain at the time, their out-half and their best ever overseas' signing. Mix in the injured Rob Kearney and that's more than 300 Heineken Cup caps shorn from the side. They are also missing their primary ball carriers, Sean O'Brien and Cian Healy, as well as their tighthead Mike Ross and his understudy Marty Moore.
It's some toll, and not even Joe Schmidt could have made light of that. With Kearney joining his brother Dave and Fergus McFadden on the sidelines, Ian Madigan comes in at fullback, with substitute Luke Fitzgerald in line for his first appearance since March.
However, in addition to the absence of Healy, it is the loss of both Ross and Moore which is particularly worrisome given the number Wasps did on a Bath pack containing three of England’s possible tight five this autumn, and particularly the ready-up Matt Mullan gave Dave Wilson as Bath ran up a 29-0 lead.
And Michael Bent, who has yet to convince but is preferred to Tadgh Furlong, is no Wilson.
Pace out wide
In a statement of intent, the only change Dai Young makes to that victorious Wasps team is to re-instate English lock Joe Launchbury, who missed last week's game. They can afford to swing from the hip and have pace out wide in Sailosi Tagicakibau and Christian Wade to do so.
Wasps are spirited defensively and will be a tough nut to crack for a Leinster side whose breakdown work has been inconsistent and who are lacking the X factor, especially so now that Madigan will be mostly operating in the backfield rather than the gain line.
This looks altogether trickier than the bookies odds would indicate, but the hope lingers that Leinster have enough quality, and pedigree, to pull through.
LEINSTER: I Madigan; Z Kirchner, G D'Arcy, N Reid, D Fanning; J Gopperth, E Reddan; J McGrath, S Cronin, M Bent, D Toner, M McCarthy, R Ruddock, D Ryan, J Heaslip (capt). Replacements: R Strauss, E Byrne, T Furlong, K Douglas, J Conan, I Boss, M McGrath, L Fitzgerald.
WASPS: A Masi; C Wade, E Daly, A Leiua, S Tagicakibau; A Goode, J Simpson; M Mullan, C Festuccia, L Cittadini, J Launchbury, B Davies, A Johnson, J Haskell (capt), N Hughes. Replacements : T Lindsay, S McIntyre, J Cooper-Woolley, J Gaskell, S Jones, C Davies, R Miller, C Bell. Referee: L Hodges (Wales).
Formguide: Leinster – L W L W L W. Wasps – L W L W L W.
Previous meetings: (2006-07) q/f Wasps 35 Leinster 13. (2008-09) Leinster 41 Wasps 11, Wasps 19 Leinster 12.
Tickets: Are still available from Ticketmaster and can also be purchased from the RDS box office from 1pm on Sunday afternoon.
Odds (Paddy Powers): 1/6 Leinster, 25/1 Draw, 4/1 Wasps.
Handicap odds: (Wasps +11 pts) 10/11 Leinster, 25/1 Draw, 10/11 Wasps.
Forecast: Leinster to win.
