Champions Cup: Toulouse vs Ulster, Saturday April 9th, Le Stadium (3.15pm kick-off Irish time, live on BT Sport).
Now we are about to find out a whole lot more about this Ulster team. They breezed through the pool stages as one of only two sides to win four matches out of four on the field of play - Munster were the others - but their reward, as such, is the ultimate test in European club rugby, a meeting with the reigning European and French champions.
What’s more, through no fault of their own, they will encounter a Toulouse club in vengeful mood, not with Ulster, but with European rugby and the tournament organisers in particular.
This follows the cancellation of both their home games in the pool stages; against Wasps, which was declared a draw, and Cardiff, which much to their fury was declared a 28-0 defeat and prompted threats of legal challenges.
While the latter never materialised, Toulouse’s motivation for adding to their record haul of five European Cups was made more acute from that moment onwards.
Admittedly, Toulouse have not been at their vintage best this season. Having initially set the pace in the first few months of the Top 14 season, as bulk suppliers to the French side they suffered during November and the Six Nations especially.
Although they have steadied the ship and sit fifth domestically, last week’s defeat by Castres in their local derby was an eighth in their last 11 matches.
In response, Ugo Mola has made six changes. He has restored Pita Ahki and Zack Holmes to midfield as well as left winger Matthis Lebel. Hooker Julien Marchand has been ruled out, meaning the Toulouse and French second choice ‘2’ Peato Mauvaka starts, with tighthead Dorian Aldegheri and lock Emmanuel Meafou also recalled as Thibaud Flament moves to the backrow. French Grand Slam-winning flanker Anthony Jelonch returns from injury and is named on the bench.
Marchand apart, Toulouse have eight of the French match-day squad from their Grand Slam coronation against England, namely Thomas Ramos, Romain Ntamack, Antoine Dupont, Mauvaka, Flament and Francois Cros in their starting line-up, as well as Cyril Baille and Jelonch among their replacements.
Dan McFarland makes eight changes in all to the starting XV from last week’s 34-16 defeat by the Bulls. Halfbacks John Cooney and Billy Burns, winger Robert Baloucoune and centre McCloskey are restored to the backline, while Ben Moxham switches to the left wing where he will make his first European start.
Up front, Eric O’Sullivan and Rob Herring are united with the retained Marty Moore in the frontrow, while Alan O’Connor is restored to the secondrow and Marcus Rea has been chosen at blindside.
This could be a relatively opportune point in the campaign to meet Toulouse, particularly with the second leg to come at the Kingspan Stadium next Saturday.
Toulouse are very Dupont dependent, although that said, there’s no way Ulster, or any team, can keep the little man under wraps for 80 minutes. He’s just too good, especially if the game halts or the ball goes to ground, for then he can seem so ahead of everyone else on the field it is as if they are mannequins for a split second.
Presuming Dupont does pull the occasional rabbit out of the hat, then Ulster will just have to roll with it. C’est la vie, as it were.
But if Ulster have the basics of their game in place, and succeed in getting the big Toulouse runners onto ground and stop the offloads, as well as slow down their ruck ball, then ala Castres they could frustrate les rouges et noirs.
Ulster have a good head-to-head record against Toulouse, with five wins and a draw in their 11 meetings, including an away win and away draw, and won’t be fazed by the challenge.
Provided they stay in the game early on, they’re well capable of taking a less than perfect Toulouse defence through the phases, and they have an undoubted match-winner of their own in Baloucoune.
Restricting Toulouse to no more than a two-score lead would still leave Ulster alive in the tie, and anything better then even more so.
Stade Toulousain: Thomas Ramos; Juan Cruz Mallía, Zack Holmes, Pita Ahki, Matthis Lebel; Romain Ntamack, Antoine Dupont (capt); Rodrigue Neti, Peato Mauvaka, Dorian Aldegheri; Rory Arnold, Emmanuel Meafou; Rynhardt Elstadt, Thibaud Flament, Francois Cros.
Replacements: Guillaume Cramont, Cyril Baille, Charlie Faumuina, Richie Arnold, Anthony Jelonch, Alban Placines, Martin Page Relo, Sofiane Guitoune.
Ulster: Mike Lowry, Robert Baloucoune, James Hume, Stuart McCloskey, Ben Moxham, Billy Burns, John Cooney; Eric O'Sullivan, Rob Herring, Marty Moore, Alan O'Connor, Iain Henderson (Capt.), Marcus Rea, Nick Timoney, Duane Vermeulen.
Replacements: Brad Roberts, Andrew Warwick, Tom O'Toole, Kieran Treadwell, Jordi Murphy, Nathan Doak, Luke Marshall, Rob Lyttle.
Referee: Wayne Barnes (RFU)
Forecast: Toulouse to win by two scores.
