Watching Stanley Kubrick’s ‘Full Metal Jacket’ recently the line “nobody is an atheist in a foxhole” struck a chord.
Rugby is not war, far from it, but when Tuilagi and Vunipola were punching holes in the Irish defence, with Itoje and Underhill destroying the attack, players needed a belief system to fall back on.
The Schmidt Doctrine has delivered riches beyond our wildest dreams. The success rate at Leinster then Ireland has been nothing short of phenomenal. However, so far, 2019 performances against England, Wales and England again have proved a blight on this heady era.
How low can Ireland sink? I wrongly presumed losing to Wales in the Six Nations was rock bottom. The tournament ended with a thud at the stadium Ireland revisit on Saturday.
A few minutes into the Italy game earlier this month again I wondered: here it is, scraping the barrel.
Last week I was worried about the general state of the team’s attacking strategy before Twickenham. My fears were realised and exceeded.
This chastening defeat to England must be Ireland’s rock bottom. It has to be the decisive moment, with a catharsis only possible when the hardest decisions are made. I will get to the backrow, hooker, scrumhalf and outside back selections that must be reexamined after shipping 57 points.
Schmidt made an unusual media appearance yesterday to state nothing mitigates losing in this manner: “We looked flat, we looked slow, we were inaccurate and we didn’t adjust when we could see we were being troubled in certain areas.”
Harsh, honest, smart move. Rock bottom is one step away from the path to redemption. Bear with me. A record defeat is always going to prompt hysterical public reaction but it’s still August. Preseason. The All Blacks were hammered in Perth only to turn it around in Auckland.
Talk of Ireland being broken is only that: talk. For now.
The lack of on-field leadership was apparent. I’m not fingering Rory Best’s captaincy or anyone else but the game was crying out for somebody to grab hold of the reins; a bullishness to mirror what Paul O’Connell, Seán O’Brien, Dan Leavy, James Ryan have produced in the distant and recent past.
Leadership comes in many forms. The ability to lead instinctively under the most severe pressure is being stymied by Ireland’s faith in a game plan that is dependent on dominating possession. Opposition defences have cottoned on. They abandon our rucks to line up the Irish runners.
Backline exposed
The lineout can and will be fixed by the return of Devin Toner and Ryan. Gainline access? Over to Messrs Henshaw and Farrell. Time for the Irish to flex their muscles. Up you come, Jack Conan.
Concerns around Conor Murray remain, but I think somebody needs to simplify Conor’s remit. Forget about dictating the attack. Just play scrumhalf. Let others lead until he can return to the standards we saw in Chicago 2016 and the 2017 Lions tour. Glide from ruck to ruck, hit his outhalf or Henshaw or Conan on the charge and eventually the rhythm will drag him back into world class form.
I feel sorry for Bundee Aki. He was seeking to hurt each and every English ball carrier but such eagerness left the backline exposed. I admired his intent but others needed to follow him into the hole.
In my mind the catalyst for Ireland's drop in form was not being ready for what followed victory over the All Blacks
My last game in the green jersey was August four years ago. I couldn’t influence the Scotland match, paying the costly price of instant retirement, as I needed to convince Joe of my continued value. But the legs had gone. All the players on the pitch against England will relate to the deep well of frustration I felt that day.
Almost every player who played the Wales warm-up match four years ago had the opposite feeling. Does anyone remember either result? The memory of Saturday’s 57-15 defeat will fade because it doesn’t really matter. Just make sure this is rock bottom. Now get up. Players almost certainly not going to Japan are about to be gifted the opportunity to remove those who were bankers to travel before Twickenham.
Flip the negative into a positive. Get up off your knees.
Schmidt pointed to the importance of form only being relevant a month from now when Ireland face Scotland in Yokohama. Forget semi-final dreams. I know, I know most supporters have paid through the nose to be in Japan that week but Ireland need to ready themselves for the battles of Pool A.
The coaches need to figure out what has gone wrong. And I believe they will. Break it down. Return to the source of perhaps our greatest collective joy as a rugby island: Dublin, the night of November 17th 2018.
Every profitable attack against New Zealand was launched off a well oiled lineout. Jacob Stockdale’s beautiful try came from Best’s throw to Peter O’Mahony before Johnny Sexton’s reverse ball to Aki. The pass, the chip, the downward-ski-slide to glory all came from Best’s throw and Toner’s lift being on the money.
In my mind the catalyst for Ireland’s drop in form was not being ready for what followed victory over the All Blacks. Internal emotional sabotage, unconscious it may have been, has proved just as deadly as any team robbed of belief by an old fashioned losing streak.
Either way, confidence levels are in the red after Saturday.
Rock bottom. Hopefully. I looked back at the New Zealand game to see what was happening then and what Ireland have been doing since.
First start
Analysis starts with defence. The majority of the 37 missed tackles against England stem from disharmony across the backline. Last November everyone was on the same frequency. Now I’m seeing individuals afraid of making a mistake. I have been this soldier. Fear of a misstep in Test matches tends to result in catastrophe with several players frozen between two decisions when Cokanasiga, Daly and Tuilagi ran in the first-half tries. There were numerous examples in stark contrast to England’s incredible line speed (the John Mitchell effect).
I think Rory should be named as Ireland captain for the World Cup no matter what, but the form player must get the jersey
Saturday was Jordan Larmour’s first start on the wing for Ireland. The 22-year-old lacks the necessary exposure in the position to be ready for this unforgiving level. If selection is based on form and only one extra outside back is making the 31-man squad then Andrew Conway is the current favourite with Will Addison due an opportunity this weekend.
The back row of CJ Stander, Josh van der Flier and Peter O’Mahony were eaten alive by Vunipola, Itoje, Underhill and Curry. This was many people’s starting trio for the long road ahead. That must now be reassessed. Conan, Jordi Murphy, Rhys Ruddock all deserve time against Wales to usurp them. I’m not sure about Tadhg Beirne as he’s played most of his rugby at lock for Munster. If he is to become a blindside it should have happened before now but maybe Tadhg will travel if the Jean Kleyn experiment is abandoned.
Only a few players are safe. Last week’s unseen 31-man list will have several changes when submitted to World Rugby on Monday. That’s the cold hard reality.
What to do about hooker? Best and Seán Cronin did themselves no favours at Twickenham so Niall Scannell has the chance of a life time. I still think all three will go. I have no issue with a 37-year-old leader being used as an impact. If Scannell can earn the starting hooker spot it could ignite an Irish revival (was this not the point of squad building?). Best will get a chance to atone over the coming fortnight or during the pool stages.
I think Rory should be named as Ireland captain for the World Cup no matter what, but the form player must get the jersey.
I didn’t take my chance to go to the 2003 and 2015 World Cups. The disappointment rips the heart out of you, for a time. Such fate will befall certain players who were part of last weekend’s meltdown.
Brutal business
Professional sport is a brutal business but form, not reputation, has to be the key factor when it comes to selecting the squad. The tried and trusted are no longer safe. Schmidt, Andy Farrell, Simon Easterby and Richie Murphy will pick apart each new or enhanced concern with more evidence than anyone else. They will make the best decisions based on all the information. They see what we cannot.
Ireland must dig in at The Principality without any non-believers. Every player needs some type of higher power, be that the Book of Joe, an Andy Farrell sermon from the Carton Pulpit or something Rory Best lays out to them. Or God. Whatever it takes.
I was blessed to have played with men who could change a game by instinctively taking the right option rather than following instructions on the game sheet. That takes courage. That takes belief in yourself.
The non-negotiables are quality lineout possession (enter Toner) and a forward moving scrum (Jack McGrath, your time is now). Timing is essential between scrumhalf – does the John Cooney bell need ringing? – and runners who must be moving before the ball is passed.
Ireland need genuine attacking options that hold defenders so the defensive line cannot set and race up. Just like England using Manu Tuilagi as a decoy, Ireland turn to Henshaw and Farrell.
Game management isn’t the sole domain of the halfbacks. Play what you see. Find the space and, whoever you are, exploit it. Addison and Carbery have the ability to do this better than most Irish players. One we have not seen, the other we cannot due to injury.
The next few moves are crucial.
