History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Let's look at these Pro14 semi-finals from two wildly contrasting perspectives: the diehard Ulster fan and ever loyal Munster follower.
Let's put enough years on the Ulster soul so they remember beating Colomiers at Lansdowne road in 1999. Equally, the Munster memory can drift back to that Cardiff day in 2006 when they broke Biarritz.
That feeling when your province lifts the European Cup fades with every season of just breaking even, but it lingers on the big semi-final days.
The Munster fan probably ruined the rest of Friday night’s television viewing after smashing the remote control. I imagine this happening straight after JJ Hanrahan’s second miss of two very kickable penalties.
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That the man in possession of the best kicking percentages in the Pro14 goes and produces a pair of duds from three attempts in the season-defining game strongly suggests he has reached his ceiling.
We all have them. I could never be compared to Matt Giteau or any other creative number 12 because I arrived in midfield without the necessary weapons. As a teenager and into my early twenties I was far too busy running around people to learn the fundamentals of distributing ball in traffic.
I remember a pass for Ireland, a double miss against Australia, that ran aground. I needed the muscle memory to be banked before leaving school so I could focus on the mental aspect of passing under severe pressure. By about 28 these skills were in my arsenal. Far too late but enough to survive.
The mind does weird things in a semi-final. To have any hope you better believe in yourself. You better trust your mental routine will shut out the negative whispers. The great kickers, those who live for clutch moments, have failed so many times that they no longer care.
That's how you recover from the missed kicks in big games. You instantaneously stop caring about the past. It does not consume your off season. Practice does. Ian Madigan clearly lives in this world. JJ has only heard about it.
Hanrahan is not the reason Munster lost to Leinster. He is responsible for the seven-point deficit not being reduced to one, but overall blame must go further up the ladder and deeper into the squad.
Unearth talent
When Munster were kings of Europe – when Paulie and Rog provided the blueprint for leadership – the professional structures blatantly failed to unearth talent from new sources after the once vibrant club scene stopped sending up Clohessys, Hayeses and Leamys.
I am blaming the failure to build an academy that produces a sufficient amount of talent. I am also blaming the IRFU set-up that has transformed non-Leinster provinces into feeder systems for the national squad.
The spreading of former Leinster schoolboys to Limerick, Belfast and Galway has vastly improved Ireland's depth in every position and it will help the national side in the coming era when rocks like Bundee Aki and CJ Stander make careers in France and Japan, but what does it do for Munster in the long term?
Right now, all we are seeing is Munster openly attempting to buy success with South African and Leinster-born players.
RG Snyman is never going to be the next Paul O'Connell. His injury is bad luck for everyone but how long will he be on Springbok duty over the next two years? The same question applies to Damian de Allende (who was targeted and dispossessed by Johnny Sexton and Ronán Kelleher in much the same way O'Connell and Donncha O'Callaghan punished Sebastien Chabal way back when).
They are world-class signings, and great for spectators, but they are not the cure for what ails Munster. I am blaming a coaching ticket that settled upon a nauseating pressure game, built on aspirations of physical dominance.
This strategy was never going to overcome Leinster. Certainly not after showing their hand two weeks ago. It didn't take long for Leinster to realise a guard of honour was needed around Munster chasers to deny access to Conor Murray's box kicks. England had an almost identical plan in place to pull the threads out of Ireland's primary method of gaining territory in February 2019.
I am blaming the lack of leadership on the pitch. There is a safety in playing to certain tactics even when you know they are not working. You can’t make a mistake if you are following orders. I chased as hard as I could. I made my tackles. My kicks were on the money. I did my job. Then the question arises as to where the blame lies, and honestly, I’m not sure anyone knows the answer to that question.
If you go off script you need to swallow the consequences and to me that is what makes truly great players; they acknowledge the risk and take the plunge. I’m not sure there are too many players like this sitting in the current Munster changing room (even Leinster will need a few more to stand up if they are to keep their invincible season intact against English and French opponents).
When your strategy is failing – Exhibit A being Munster, Exhibit B being Ulster at half-time in Murrayfield – you fall back on your philosophy. Munster are playing a game that they are only partially resourced to play. They did not have the scrum or monstrous pack to keep pounding away. They did not have the expert goal kicker to live off scraps. For the life of me, I cannot understand why they persist in this fashion. Perhaps the desperation to win clouds perspective inside the camp.
Back field
I cannot discern a clear Munster philosophy. Stephen Larkham’s influence – nice hands in wide channels and less reliance on the one-off runners – was beginning to creep into their play before lockdown. They abandoned this approach. If you are going to box kick the life out of a match, at the very least don’t do it off dead slow ruck ball. Go another phase or two, manipulate the back field, and only kick before the opposition is comfortable.
The overall tactics were fine in theory. The execution was pathetic. Munster's on field leaders needed to change up at 10-3. It was too late when Sexton made it 13-3. If De Allende and Chris Farrell cannot power onto ball you may forget about Keith Earls, Andrew Conway or Shane Daly – who has been really impressive – to win the game with pace and evasion.
Experience-wise there is little difference between Ulster head coach Dan McFarland and Munster head coach Johann van Graan. In Graham Rowntree and Larkham, Van Graan possesses a deeper well of wisdom and technical knowledge than McFarland boasts in his young assistants Dwayne Peel and Jared Payne.
Right now though, McFarland is streets ahead of Van Graan. At half-time in Murrayfield they were in a similar state of inadequacy. McFarland separated himself with a big decision that took control of Ulster’s destiny.
The coach put the entire campaign on his back by pulling off Ulster's best player of these past two years. John Cooney has been out of sorts since the restart but he is their goal kicker, their try scorer from anywhere and so much more besides.
The player who replaced him will not be lost on the Munster fan. Murray was regularly relieved of last-quarter responsibility when Alby Mathewson was his shadow scrumhalf. Ulster profited from keeping a 34-year-old All Black in the Irish system.
McFarland's entire bench deserves credit for fighting back from 19-7 down with 20 minutes remaining, albeit against an Edinburgh side that choked, but it was Mathewson who changed up the tempo.
The Ulster fan has grown accustomed to beating off all-comers at home before coming up short on a tricky road trip. That the halfbacks McFarland signed this summer produced the goods to set up a Pro14 final against Leinster in Dublin this Saturday night shows us a coach who knew precisely where his team needed strengthening.
That Madigan kicked five points under the most strenuous levels of pressure, in direct contrast to Hanrahan being miles off target when under less heat, explains why McFarland was able to hugely gamble by removing Cooney.
The Ulster fan sees a man who can admit his tactics are not working. The Ulster fan sees a coach who was able to stare into the eyes of his best player and tell him ‘You are coming out of the game’.
Van Graan did not have an All Black veteran at his disposal to replace the incumbent Lions scrumhalf but in Craig Casey he undoubtedly has a coming force. Even the young scrumhalf was not tasked with changing up their approach. They box-kicked to an unacceptable conclusion.
You must live and die by your decision-making in a game. That goes for the coach and the players. Ulster's season lives on for at least two more massive tests in Dublin and Toulouse. McFarland's reputation is in the black no matter what happens now. Munster's season dies, again, with nothing to show for it, which leaves Van Graan very much in the red.
Stander made the strangest comment afterwards: “For me, it’s an honour to get to a semi-final.”
As humble as this genuinely was meant to be, no Munster fan needs to be hearing that Monday morning after the umpteenth semi-final loss.
The Ulster fan knows their coach has a ruthless streak when it matters most. Stander added that there is “some great stuff going on behind the scenes” and that “hopefully next season we’ll reach a final”. This line has been repeated in different ways over the last 10 years. People need to know more about this “great stuff” because it is not visible on our television screens.
Maybe Van Graan, Rowntree and Larkham are the greatest collection of coaches the province will ever know – their respective national teams certainly believed they were the right men for big jobs – but I imagine the Muster problems will continue so long as they are producing the current calibre of forward.
Farrell only has himself to blame
The impact of Owen Farrell's tackle on Charlie Atkinson will reverberate for months, perhaps even forever if the rugby authorities do their job correctly.
Smashing a forearm into an opponent’s head makes the England captain a dinosaur. Or it should. I’m amazed the technique is not extinct by now. Those who curate our game have made all the right noises about such tackles but this comes straight after Dylan Hartley wrote about struggling to go for a walk due to the ill-effects of multiple concussions.
Saturday's red card was bound to happen to Farrell. He is not a dirty player but physical confrontation is at the core of his play. New Zealand captain Sam Cane gets less attention for similar behaviour because he is a flanker but Farrell clocking Atkinson, in such a brutal manner, guarantees the suspension will put the sport firmly under the spotlight. Everyone is watching to see how such an inexcusable act will be punished.
This keeps happening to Eddie Jones’ chosen skipper.
I’m struggling to see any mitigation. He tried to damage the player as legally as he possibly could, but to continually enter collisions in an upright a manner was eventually going to result in what we witnessed during Saracens’ defeat to Wasps.
This cannot come as a shock to his coaches, Mark McCall or Jones. The way Farrell refuses to lower his entry into contact always came with it the risk of ruining Sarries’ dream to retain their European title. Maybe a season playing NRL, instead of coasting for Saracens in the Championship, would have been his best preparation for the Lions.
Farrell uses this technique because it causes the most damage to the ball carrier. From about three strides out he sets himself to make a 'King Hit, ' with the intended point of contact several inches lower but he knew full well he was coming from Atkinson's blind spot and left no room for error. His technique needs to drop by at least two feet.
Young players need to see a line drawn in the sand. This is not acceptable in our game.
I bet Saracens cannot wait to slam the door on the 2019/20 season and while they will still relish the trip to Dublin on Saturday week, they must do it without their key man. Only one person is to blame.
