Don't book flights to Marseilles just yet. At least wait until we see how Leinster, Munster, Ulster and Connacht cope with the incoming Top 14 clubs. Because a renaissance in French rugby might force the IRFU into altering the way the professional game is managed on the island.
A clean sweep on return to European rugby should be celebrated even if the opposition were poor. In some cases very poor. Each victory deserves genuine praise but the apparent good health of the provinces versus the latest World Cup failure, begs the question: where does it leave Irish rugby?
This weekend’s games – starting with Clermont in Belfast and ending with my old team-mate Simon Zebo’s return to Limerick – will splash some colour on the overall canvass.
I cannot see Connacht maintaining Sunday’s sensational form in Toulouse although they can beat Gloucester over two rounds in December. Ulster’s win was more a case of Bath’s inability to replicate Japan’s style at The Rec. They lacked the essential second receiver, someone like Ian Madigan, to stitch plays together.
Leinster and Johnny Sexton looked out of sync against Treviso, the Ireland outhalf having been away from his club team for six months, while Munster made very hard work of an Ospreys team that cannot possibly care about the Champions Cup after Wales’ success at the World Cup denied them Alun Wyn Jones, Justin Tipuric and other internationals.
Provincial coaches are not thinking about the Ireland squad even though they feed the national interest. They only care for this unbelievably challenging block of fixtures that started several weeks ago and runs up until the Six Nations kicks off in February. The only deal in the win or bust, beauty and curse, mentality of almost every Champions Cup weekend.
The big picture we were all going on about for the past 18 months has been blacked out, shelved for another day. Irish rugby simply cannot afford to think about radical change when the immediate future demands success.
Ireland didn’t stumble during the last Six Nations because they were trying out new methods to make them successful at the World Cup. Nope.
We believed too deeply in how much control we actually have of over our fate at World Cups
Defeats to England and Wales came from their attack being figured out by advancements in defensive systems. This is the pressing task facing Andy Farrell’s, largely reformed, coaching ticket. That hardly encourages him to start building for a tournament that is four years away.
The only target is Scotland, and the old one-game-at-a-time mentality, with the best performing players to be picked in each position.
Successful blueprint
Ireland are unable to replicate the successful blueprint employed by Japan this year or Argentina at World Cups dating back to 2007. Irish rugby cannot take a time-out. Farrell does not have the Jamie Joseph luxury of gathering a squad nine months out while occasionally lending players to provincial sides.
The current masterplan should have delivered a World Cup semi-final appearance by now. Ireland were unlucky in 2015. We underperformed in 2007 and 2011. But, like Wales and Argentina, I think the last four is the height of our current system’s capabilities.
No more, with plenty of scope for less when we time our run wrong.
Injuries in key positions instantly devastate Irish ranks. This is established now. We remain a rugby nation that needs to bring in CJ Stander and Bundee Aki-type players to be physically capable of living with England’s Billy Vunipola, Maro Itoje and Manu Tuilagi. Such imports, Aki and Stander, allow us to hold pace with South Africa and New Zealand but Duane Vermeulens and Jack Goodhues do not exist in a system that still largely relies on private schools to produce the talent.
That’s just a fact.
The return of the Champions Cup highlights just how competitive Irish rugby remains. Leinster expect to win the tournament. Munster expect to reach the final. Connacht and Ulster have genuine and realistic aspirations of escaping their pools.
I think we believed too deeply in how much control we actually have of over our fate at World Cups.
We will continue to aspire to be better but it is at provincial level that we should always expect to gather silverware. That's where the daily coaching occurs. Being in meeting rooms and on training pitches with Stuart Lancaster, Stephen Larkham, Andy Friend and Jared Payne – I presume – will make Irish players better.
In that sense, the system is working as well as it ever has done. Still, I am very cautious about the 2019/20 season. Round one could be a mirage.
With Racing at the vanguard, the leading French clubs look powerful and organised. The former is expected but the latter is a new development, and I put this down to a French-born backbone running through their squads again.
Bernard Laporte has been putting a plan in place for two years now to deliver the Webb Ellis trophy in 2023. It starts with forcing the clubs to stop flooding their sides with foreigners (with the exception of French-qualified Fijians of course) and presumably finishes with giving Fabien Galthié all the tools he needs to win a World Cup. They have started with defence. Shaun Edwards will not be long sorting them out.
Four Irish teams against Top 14 opposition will be fascinating to watch this weekend. It should actively help to move our minds past the World Cup.
If we are witnessing a French renaissance it might be apparent over the weekend – certainly during the Six Nations – and that may force us to question our best-laid plans for these four-year cycles, which really aren’t four year cycles at all because all that matters is how a team goes in the six months leading up to World Cups.
Both abysmal
Look at England in 2018. Look at South Africa until Rassie arrived. Both abysmal. All that counts is the lead-in – which Ireland clearly got badly wrong (see Twickenham in August) – and squad health during the tournament.
No provincial group is thinking about the greater national good right now.
Johann van Graan’s overall success as the Munster coach looks like it requires RG Snyman and Damien de Allende to add the necessary size and power next season. The balance between winning and developing indigenous players remains a difficult balance to strike. I am a huge fan of both expected signings but my concern is what young players will benefit from these marquee players?
Isa Nacewa had a tremendous impact on young Leinster backs. Snyman must do something similar with young Munster locks.
If France return to their glory days then Ireland will almost certainly slip down the Six Nations pecking order
Leinster coaches are in constant conflict with the IRFU as David Nucifora's player movement keeps heaping pressure on their strength in depth. Besides Iain Henderson, Ulster coach Dan McFarland does not have any local forwards of sufficient quality to name in the team.
That’s just a reality, and McFarland needs to win games by whatever means are at his disposal.
Andy Friend is simply working miracles in Galway.
If France become a top-three rugby nation again – that is what Galthié is aiming to achieve – then Irish rugby and Nucifora might need to take a long, hard look at how they are going about their business. This might not be such a bad thing. Just because the system is working – World Cups aside – it does not mean that is how we go forward.
If France return to their glory days then Ireland will almost certainly slip down the Six Nations pecking order. And all the European titles in the world will not be of much use if the Aviva Stadium is not full to the brim every November, February and March.
Interesting times lie ahead. The return to Champions Cup was encouraging but round two will provide a more accurate test of where the provinces stand.
