This autumn window does not have the implications of the four-yearly November schedule which finalises the world rankings and, as a result, the seeding for the World Cup draw. So for that we can all exhale a sizeable sigh of relief. It takes that possibly over-hyped factor out of the equation but nonetheless this is a big month for the game, not least for an Irish squad under a new coaching regime and a daunting three-test programme culminating in the ultimate challenge of this and most other years, those men in black.
There is always a bounce effect from the appointment of a new coach, and the feelgood factor towards Joe Schmidt was both inevitable and is already palpable. He may have been a Leinster man, but coming from New Zealand has made him seem more impartial to both supporters and players from the other three provinces.
There is also the undeniable and widely held view that he is simply an outstanding coach. As with his influence on Clermont's back play over the previous three years when assistant coach there, his influence in three years at Leinster as head coach was profound. He was true to his stated ambition to sharpen Leinster's passing and handling skills, and finishing. He helped build upon the foundations laid by Michael Cheika for the province to go the distance in three European campaigns and three league campaigns, winning two Heineken Cups, one Amlin Challenge Cup and, eventually, a Pro 12 title.
It wasn’t just the trophy haul of four from a maximum six – albeit including the secondary European tournament rather than a third Heineken Cup in a row – it was the brio and brilliance of much of Leinster’s rugby. They have arguably been not only the most proficient Irish team of this or any other generation, but consistently the best to watch over a three-year period as well.
When Declan Kidney’s contract was not renewed, Schmidt was the stand-out candidate by a country mile, even from southern hemisphere coaches with CVs such as Jake White and Ewen McKenzie. His insider knowledge from his time with Leinster was an advantage rather than a negative and the players from the other provinces have been taking the trek to the Carton House for his sharply demanding training sessions with a renewed enthusiasm.
The Schmidt factor, along with the Brian O’Driscoll farewell factor, has also had a bounce on ticket sales. As the biggest draw card in the global game, the All Blacks match was predictably the first to sell out, but the Wallabies game is expected to follow suit.The attendance at the Samoa game is liable to be in excess of 40,000 too.
This is a far cry from the 75,000 or so which filled out Croke Park for New Zealand and South Africa in ’08 and ’09, or even the near 70,000 which paid handsomely to see the games against Argentina and Australia in those comparatively swell times. Furthermore, the IRFU – burnt by the anti-climactic Aviva opening in 2010 when 30,000 paid for tickets to the Samoa game as part of those over-priced packages – have reduced their ticket prices for this series.
Buffer for the coffers
Even so, with three home tests in the Aviva as opposed to two a year ago, when concerns about the estimated €150,000 costs in opening up the ground for the visit of Fiji prompted them to move that encounter to Thomond Park, the IRFU should clear €5 million-plus from these three matches – a welcome buffer for their coffers in these profoundly challenging times for the union given a turnover of around €60 million.
Much of that can be attributed to the Schmidt and O’Driscoll factors, and while the coach will assuredly be granted an extended honeymoon period, an encouraging autumn showing would help maintain that feelgood factor.
Schmidt will need the kind of luck with regard to injuries that eluded Kidney. As with the last year or so of his predecessor's reign, there's a nagging suspicion that as the golden generation makes its way towards retirement, it may not be a vintage crop that follows. Nor have the early signs been encouraging with regard to injuries, as Schmidt already lost Stephen Ferris, Richardt Strauss, Tommy O'Donnell, Jordi Murphy, Simon Zebo, Donnacha Ryan and Iain Henderson even before he finalised his squad for this series.
Several others were also nursing injuries last week which prevented them from training, thus compounding what all international coaches find a restrictive adjustment from the comparatively daily involvement they had with club or provincial sides. Furthermore, some players, such as the twin totems O'Driscoll and Paul O'Connell, and the equally important Sean O'Brien, come into the November games underdone or, in the case of Johnny Sexton, overcooked.
Nor does a programme of matches against the big-hitting Samoan bruisers and the resurgent Wallabies militate against there being further casualties by the time the All Blacks juggernaut rolls into town.
As far back as last September, when a 42-man Irish squad came together for two days, everybody was on board with the message that all three of Ireland’s November opponents are actually ranked higher than Ireland. But while building up the opposition is standard procedure, in this instance the message is entirely valid.
Even Samoa, first up, are ranked above Ireland, primarily on the basis of their November tour a year ago when beating Canada (42-12) and Wales at the Millennium Stadium, before pushing a French team, which had slaughtered Australia, to a 22-14 win. The 26-19 victory over Wales far from flattered Samoa, who scored three tries and conceded one to an intercept, and they would have won more comfortably but for leaving a host of kicks behind.
Physical challenge
Tellingly, 13 of the starting line-up against Wales were named in the original 30-man squad for this tour, of whom nine ply their trade in the Top 14, nine more in the English
Premiership, three in Super Rugby, with two each from the NPC, ProD2 and Japan, as well as one in the Pro 12.
“They’re physical, tough and they can play for 80 [minutes],” says Ireland’s new forwards coach John Plumtree. “Their individuals play in professional set-ups now which obviously makes them more professional. They’ve a big set-piece and some exciting backs, so they are more than capable, and they’ve shown that consistently. So we all sit up here and talk the opposition up but deservedly so in their case now. I saw them play in South Africa recently and they were pretty good.”
Samoa were beaten 56-23 by the Springboks in Pretoria in the final of that quadrangular tournament in Pretoria last June, but that was after a collective loss of discipline which saw a high penalty count compounded by a red card for Alesana Tuilagi, not included on this tour, and a yellow card for Lugovi Mulipola. It also followed wins over Scotland (27-17) and Italy (39-10).
Samoa, no less than Argentina or other countries outside the more established elite, are quick to take umbrage over any perceived slight, and with good reason. Hence, when Schmidt notes that Samoa’s “two other games in the November period are against the French Barbarians and Georgia,” he added: “I don’t think you have to be Einstein to figure out which game they’ll target. So, we know that’s going to be an incredibly tough fixture. But I think it’s going to be a super fixture because they’re going to try to open the game up without a doubt. We’re going to try to combat that and do what we want to do.”
Next up the Wallabies, beaten in seven out of eight games against New Zealand, South Africa and the Lions, but they are arguably the best three sides in the world (and most probably in that order). It’s worth wondering how Ireland would have fared against the same opponents.
What’s more, under Ewen McKenzie the shoots of a recovery were clear to see in outscoring the Pumas by seven tries to two and 54-17 in Rosario, and equally so when losing by four tries to three and 41-33 to the All Blacks in Dunedin. Much of their back play was superb and again it’s worth wondering whether Ireland could match those performances.
Wounded Wallabies
"The Wallabies will be trying as hard as they can to get back to where they want to be," says Schmidt. "It's not like they've had it easy and one of the ways to get confidence back is to get away as a group on tour and really build through that. So the Wallabies, I've no doubt, will be very tough."
As if to augment Schmidt’s point, prior to a tour comprising games against England, Italy, Ireland, Scotland and Wales, McKenzie stated: “We’re out there to win – five wins would be good. We’re not out there to come second so we’re out there to win every game and obviously get some consistency. Winning one game is not enough. We’ve got to win consistently.”
“And then we’ve, what are they called, those New Zealand guys,” says Schmidt jokingly of his fellow Kiwis. Aside from cutting a swathe through all before them this year with a perfect 10 from 10 record, the All Blacks have done so with a potent brand of ball skills and spatial awareness, along with a stunning mix of power, pace and stamina. There’s also the minor matter of them not losing in 27 previous meetings with Ireland, the last of which finished 60 to zip.
“They have a really proud record against Ireland, among other nations,” says Schmidt, “and that’s a record that they feel a sense of responsibility to continue to protect and we’ve got a massive responsibility to try to make that as vulnerable as possible so that we can find where the weaknesses might be and try to get a result.”
Schmidt and co will, he admits, be more focussed on the “front end than the back end” of the Guinness Series, “but we’d love to get a result at the back end of it.”
That would simply be the best one-off win in Irish rugby history of all time. End of. But a win, or two, from the others would actually be an achievement.
