Ireland’s round three meeting with Italy at the Aviva Stadium next Sunday may not be the most mouth-watering of their Six Nations campaign but it looks like being Andy Farrell’s trickiest and most unpredictable selection of the championship.
First and foremost for Farrell and his assistants this is a Six Nations game. Ireland need to win and, let’s be honest, with a bonus point while also enhancing their points difference, and ideally bettering the 27- and 33-point winning margins achieved by France and England when put out their strongest sides against the Azzurri.
There’s also the need to maintain momentum and a fair degree of cohesion among combinations with a view to the ensuing make-or-break game against England at Twickenham a fortnight later and the finale at home to Scotland a week subsequently, when Ireland will want the title as part of the conversation.
As it is, the absence of Rónan Kelleher means there will be one change at hooker, in the shape of a first start for Dan Sheehan, which in turn enhances the need to keep Andrew Porter and Tadhg Furlong trucking along.
There’s also the argument for affording more game to Iain Henderson, Robbie Henshaw and James Lowe by restoring them to the starting line-up. Against that, James Ryan and Tadhg Beirne have been going very well, and ditto Bundee Aki, and you can be sure they would all be better served with Twickenham in mind by starting again, while Mack Hansen has grabbed his chance superbly.
Yet this is the one Six Nations fixture which perhaps affords Farrell and co with some leeway in taking, if not a risk or two, then in granting some more exposure to those on the fringes while increasing the depth chart in some positions.
This selection is thus a very delicate balancing act.
The next chance to experiment will be in July, when Ireland are likely to face two games against the New Zealand Maori as well as three Tests against the All Blacks if the logistics of such a tough tour can be agreed between the two countries.
For starters, this would mean travelling with a squad of 40-plus players and additional back-up staff, while there are also the quarantine requirements to be agreed upon with the New Zealand government.
Presumably, by then we might have a better idea as to who is the alternative to Hugo Keenan at fullback. As it is, we don’t. It’s been remarkable really, but since Keenan’s sudden emergence after lockdown when making his debut in the rearranged game against Italy behind closed doors in October 2020, he has been the one ever-present in Farrell’s team, starting 18 Tests in succession.
In all but two he has been fullback, the only exceptions being the Autumn Nations Cup games against Georgia and Scotland, when the currently injured Jacob Stockdale played at fullback, as he did for the final 23 minutes the week before those two games against England at Twickenham.
In every other game Keenan has played the full 80, save for the final half-hour against Argentina last November when Joey Carbery moved there. Of the other possible alternatives in the current 38-man squad, Jordan Larmour last played there for Ireland two years ago in the Six Nations defeat in Twickenham, Mack Hansen has yet to play at fullback since arriving in Connacht, although it is a string to his bow which Farrell is acutely aware of, while Michael Lowry and Jimmy O’Brien are uncapped.
Other players whom the Irish coaches would surely like to see more of in a green shirt again, if not now then against the New Zealand Maori, are Robert Baloucoune and James Hume, but one suspects there is a stronger case for restoring the fit-again Lowe given his big left foot, improved work-rate and X-factor that became such a key part of Ireland’s game last autumn.
There is also a case for affording Carbery another full Test after his impressive if belated first Six Nations start in Paris and with it the opportunity to build on the confidence that he seemed to visibly gain as he grew into that match.
It would constitute a further statement of faith in the 26-year-old and also strengthen the case that this Irish team is perhaps not so Johnny Sexton dependent as is generally perceived to be the case. That’s a strong message to send to opponents as well.
Against that, of course, having been ruled out of the Paris game with a hamstring twinge, were Sexton restricted to a cameo off the bench, the Twickenham game would be his first start in five weeks. He is also Ireland’s captain and fulfilling one of those obligations in front of the media today would be a clear signal that he will be restored.
Sexton has demonstrated many times before that he can hit the ground after a layoff but in all of this, that the Italian game falls between two fallow weeks is not ideal either.
This was the case last season as well when, admittedly, Farrell made seven changes to the starting line-up after the opening two defeats by Wales and France.
However, exactly a year ago Sexton, David Kilcoyne, who might well be recalled to a shaken up bench, and Ryan were all returning after being ruled out of the French game, while Kelleher (a try scorer against France), Furlong (who’d just completed two outings off the bench after his lengthy lay-off), Will Connors and Larmour were promoted from the bench.
Seven changes yes, but in the heel of the hunt Farrell picked what he believed to be his strongest available side, as one suspects will be pretty much the case again.
