Anticipation is just expectation framed in a softer light. It seems apt in describing the overriding feeling among Ireland rugby supporters, and I would expect the same sentiment resides within the playing group, ahead of Saturday's opening Six Nations match against Wales at the Aviva stadium.
Andy Farrell’s side are strong favourites to win the game, buoyed by an impressive Autumn Nations campaign, and in hosting a Welsh side, that although they are the tournament’s defending champions, have unfortunately been emasculated to a point by injuries.
The trappings around the game will be reminiscent of pre-pandemic times. The prospect of two sets of supporters coming together in a full stadium is welcome, the noise and colour, an atmosphere that crackles, creating the perfect backdrop for the players.
Ireland and Wales enter the Six Nations through different doors. Victories over New Zealand and Argentina and an evolution in playing style should guarantee a positive mindset and the momentum that ensues for the home side.
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The Holy Grail for any coach is finding the balance between intangibles such as attitude, belief and confidence and blending it with the ubiquitous physical attributes; when integrated correctly it is a potent blend. The ingredients are relatively commonplace, it is the ability to decide how much of each is required that defines the outcome. Coaches figure it out or don’t.
In and around 2004 and 2005, team bonding formed an integral part of the gelling process within a squad; a dinner out and a blind eye to what time people returned that evening. When Joe Schmidt took over he employed a different model, the pint or glass of wine swapped for a laptop in drilling down for detail. The net result for both methods was more or less the same.
For any successful team, balance is not something you find but what you create. Andy Farrell and Gary Keegan will know that maintaining this delicate nuance in preparation will be important to how this year's campaign will shape up.
Wayne Pivac’s Wales managed a victory over a 14-man Australia in November but injuries to key players, travelling to face an in-form Ireland and clubs that continue to flatline in Europe, are obvious challenges that lay bare the size of the task ahead.
I’m not silly enough to suggest that this is exactly the time the issues in Welsh club rugby are going to cut the legs from beneath the national team. It’s a relatively long standing anomaly that’s peculiar to Wales where the sum of the parts that make-up the national team can come together and produce a standard of rugby, and results that are light years removed from that which the Welsh clubs muster.
Pivac and his players delivered an incredible Six Nations tournament last season – they got the rub of the green that all winning teams need, theirs in the form of several red cards for opponents – but the achievement deserves to be acknowledged.
It was Ireland's lineout patterns that caught the eye, containing catch-and-drives, dummy drives, ball taken off the top and some clever interplay
Despite the aforementioned issues it is unlikely to have dampened down the natural Welsh exuberance; the supporters consider winning a birthright. That attitude and belief will get you so far but at some point during this championship there will be match-defining moments that will question the balance within this Welsh squad.
I can’t help but feel that the respective mindsets will be a very important point of difference between the two teams at the weekend. Ireland will primarily be concentrating on what they can do, an internal focus, while it’s my belief that the Welsh will be preoccupied by stopping Ireland, before any thoughts are given to creativity.
Everything fits
There were teams, matches and individual moments in my career when I believed that we would win irrespective of what the opposition threw at us. Mentally and physically you get to a place where everything fits the eye on and off the pitch, it seems effortless and easy.
You retain a narrow focus, staying in the present, trying to win each moment and even when you don’t, the trust remains in you and in those around you, moving to the next task with determination and confidence.
A hallmark of successful teams and individuals is that they can shake off mistakes instantly in never allowing a weakness to develop. I have played on and against teams that had it and it is so difficult to oppose.
If you were looking for a checklist of performance markers that are non-negotiable, right at the top would be the capacity to deliver quality primary possession. I stress the word quality because anything less and the potential for quick ball is dramatically reduced. Ireland were outstanding in November and everything flowed from that starting point in terms of the attacking strategies.
Quick ball gives a team a broader range of options in a specific instant, whether it’s carrying over the gainline, moving the ball to the edges or being able to capitalise on space in the backfield with a 50:22 kick.
I went back again to rewatch the win over the All Blacks. The foundation was a solid set piece of scrum and lineout, showcasing the best frontrow in world rugby at scrum time and their handsome contribution in broken play.
It was Ireland’s lineout patterns that caught the eye, containing catch-and-drives, dummy drives, ball taken off the top and some clever interplay. A retrospective analysis for New Zealand that day was a failure to destabilise their opponents’ lineout platform.
The All Blacks were not wildly inaccurate in possession and they certainly weren’t bamboozled or undone defensively from one of Ireland’s five scrums but the home side possessed the knack of being able to consistently attack from lineouts with devastating accuracy.
Wales will have studied the footage and will have a plan; Ireland will expect nothing less and this reinforces the game within a game that is required at lineout to ultimately deliver quick ruck ball.
Ireland and Wales play a similar possession-based game but the difference in November was the speed of Ireland's ruck ball
The fruit of Paul O'Connell's work with the Irish lineout is very evident from Iain Henderson's calling, through Rónan Kelleher's accuracy – a facet the hooker has obviously worked hard to nail down – and the manner in which James Ryan is thriving in the new system. Variety is the key to Ireland's success in this area. It'll be interesting to see how lineout poker pans out.
Defence
Another noticeable success in terms of the overall product, has been the other side of the ball in defence where a level of physicality that Andrew Porter, Caelan Doris, Bundee Aki and Garry Ringrose have brought, in killing opposition momentum stone dead at the point of contact. That’ll have to be an important part of Ireland’s toolkit on Saturday because Will Jordan’s try for the All Blacks was a timely reminder of what happens when you switch off mentally or physically.
Winning the collisions in contact guarantees quick ruck ball on one side and on the other, if that’s achieved as the defending team, it provides for turnover opportunities or at the very least forcing the opposition to resource the breakdown with bigger numbers.
Wales don’t possess the same cutting edge as New Zealand but do have some cracking backs, not least their two wings Josh Adams and Louis Rees Zammit – he offered a timely reminder with a stunning 80-metre try for Gloucester against Newcastle Falcons last weekend – and another marauding Lion in fullback Liam Williams.
Ireland and Wales play a similar possession-based game but the difference in November was the speed of Ireland’s ruck ball. The visitors boast some very accomplished breakdown threats so Farrell’s side will have to be accurate in clearing out; it’s that attention to detail and willingness of players to do the unspectacular graft that allows the collective to flourish.
Keeping Jamison Gibson-Park fit and firing for the Six Nations is now more a priority than that of Johnny Sexton, with the safety net of Joey Carbery returning. When the scrumhalf departs there is a notable reduction in tempo in the way the team operates. If we lose this, we lose our competitive advantage and in this tournament that can be fatal.
Ireland must deal effectively with expectation while continuing to evolve in terms of the playbook. Think of it as an investment in dealing with the pressure that will inevitably come during the summer in NZ and at the 2023 Rugby World Cup in France, where you have to win a series of high-profile matches.
Ireland have to be efficient and hardnosed against a Wales side that are missing some key players. There is enough experience within this squad to know that in trying to haul Wales over the coals it is not just about getting a win but about creating that positive momentum going into the following week for the trip to Paris.
Both of these objectives are aligned with the approach Ireland are most likely to adopt, that is focusing on their strengths with a ruthlessness in striving to win every moment. The result will then in all likelihood look after itself.
