One sidestep sparked the All Blacks’ run to retaining the World Cup in 2015.
It happened in August, before the tournament had even started, when Dan Carter created Dane Coles' spectacular try against the Wallabies. Steve Hansen was able to keep faith in his ageing, injury-prone outhalf.
Beauden Barrett would have to wait. Hansen knew that New Zealand, for all their might, could not do this without Carter. Only he could have guided them over the Springboks semi-final and Australia in the final with a pair of drop goals forever suspended in time.
Johnny Sexton is many things to many people but he’ll never be the greatest. That title belongs to Carter.
Sexton may be the greatest Irish outhalf since Jack Kyle – with the Ronan O’Gara argument ending on medal count and Lions tours – and his career trajectory, compared to Carter through the prism of World Cups, is eerily similar.
Well, so far.
Isolate their first two tournaments. Both represent black marks on secured legacies. Carter’s 33-point dismantling of the Lions in 2005 is untouchable but until 2015 he was set to leave the international stage without World Cup glory.
The cruelty of it all; helplessly watching the 2007 quarter-final go France’s way having limped off and then, four years later, a rugby-obsessed country being plunged into despair when he pulled up injured after his last practice kick the day before the Canada game.
Sexton’s World Cup dreams have also been troubled ones.
O'Gara snatched the 10 jersey from him in 2011; a decision that follows former national coach Declan Kidney around as that year Sexton had posted 28 points in the European Cup final to mastermind Leinster's miracle revival against Northampton.
Sexton will also always have Paris, his Grand Slam-saving drop goal in 2018, and the second Lions test against New Zealand in 2017 guarantees his international standing.
But when it comes to World Cups, he remains mired in regret. The same as every other Irish person. The difference is he can change all that, and really should have before now.
Kidney’s call
It was November 2009 when Kidney selected Sexton ahead of O’Gara to face the Springboks in Dublin, the 24-year-old kicking five penalties in a famous 15-10 victory. But it was the 2010/11 season that confirmed him as one of the game’s best outhalves.
“[In 2011] I spent more time playing golf in Carton House than practising goal kicking but that was a conscious decision,” Sexton told this reporter on The Sports Chronicle podcast last April.
“I worked hard but I don’t feel I got the balance right. I definitely wouldn’t prepare like that now. But that’s hindsight.”
Having ripped up England’s Grand Slam designs the previous March, Sexton was undoubtedly Ireland’s first-choice number 10, right up until the pivotal moment in the key Pool match at Eden Park.
"At half-time against Australia I overheard Declan asking our kicking coach Mark Tainton if we needed to make a change at outhalf. I missed two kicks in the first half."
The score was 6-6 with Sexton kicking one from three penalties and a drop goal behind an Irish pack – Healy, O’Connell, O’Brien, Ferris, Best, Heaslip – who were all in a dangerous mood.
“Early in the second half I’d a kick to put us in front and I nailed it. Having heard what I heard at half-time, because they didn’t see me, that was a big kick for me.”
O’Gara, waiting on the touchline during Sexton’s back swing, replaced Gordon D’Arcy so Sexton went to centre.
“We wanted to do that. I love playing 12, played there for Irish schools. I like the idea. Good way to organise in a different part of the field.”
Two minutes later Cian Healy won a scrum penalty wide on the left.
“It was a perfect kick,” Sexton remembered, “I hit it exactly where I wanted it but it just drifted slightly on the wind. Hit the post.”
Brian O’Driscoll was denied a certain try as a bouncing ball evaded his outstretched fingertips. And that’s when everything changed with an enormous mid-tournament call; O’Gara took the kicking tee.
“If I didn’t hit the post there I probably would have taken the next two kicks. No kick is straight forward but they were easier [to make it 15-6]. Suddenly I would have been five from seven and a drop goal, kicking all the points to beat Australia, and it just changes the whole complexion of my performance, of me. I probably get to play in the quarter-final against Wales.
“It comes back to those small things, in off the post or holds its line for another yard and things just change totally.”
Benched for the next three matches, when Sexton replaced O’Gara in the Wellington quarter-final Ireland trailed 15-10. Eight minutes later Jonathan Davies’s try made it a 12-point deficit. Ireland’s chance to reach a World Cup semi-final and a potential final against the Carter-less hosts had passed.
Smashed
Sexton recovered, winning two Six Nations and leading the Lions to a Test series victory in Australia, so everything was firmly on track entering RWC 2015. Then, 25 minutes into the final Pool game against France, Louis Picamoles smashed him.
Inconsolable, the 30-year-old attempted to bury his face in his skin-tight jersey when gingerly walking from the field.
“I came off against France very upset because I thought it was an injury that would end my World Cup. We scanned it that night which wouldn’t be done now, because you wait 36, 48 hours to let the injury show up. Scan came back clear so I thought I was imagining things but I definitely felt what I felt. Probably because the scan was clear we managed things not as well as we should have those first few days. And that was costly because as it transpired I probably could have got back for the quarters if I had done things slightly different but, again, hindsight is a great thing.
“Yeah, it’s a huge regret not being on the pitch for the Argentina game.”
It is hard to swallow that the history of such an outstanding career was altered by the results of an early scan.
“Johnny did about 3.5 kilometres of running, that’s a positive,” said assistant coach Greg Feek that Tuesday. “We’re quietly confident, we’ll see how he goes on Friday.”
Sexton was pulled that Friday after training. However, injury has failed to overshadow the current World Player of the Year’s entire body of work.
“I know Joe said those two years in Paris cost me [durability wise], but when I looked back on all the games I have played even I was shocked: it’s close to 300 games and considering I started pretty late I think in the last 12 seasons I’ve crammed in a lot.”
Since 2006, Sexton has played 285 top class matches for Leinster, Racing 92, Ireland and the Lions.
“When people are questioning my robustness I say I got through a Lions tour in New Zealand.”
Epilogue/Prologue
“Johnny Sexton is their talisman,” said Andy Goode.
"I disagree," said Jim Hamilton. "I genuinely disagree."
The Rugby Pod is more comedy gold than accurate media but it has a massive global audience. Sexton hesitantly admitted to playing hurt throughout the Six Nations but, like so many, Hamilton probably only remembers his performance in Cardiff when stating: “I just don’t think Sexton’s at the level anymore, I really don’t. I think that that’s the issue Ireland have got”.
Carter looked a beaten docket before 2015. Injured for much of the previous four seasons he bamboozled a tighthead and glided away from a loosehead. With that the All Blacks began to believe in fairytales again; the pay off coming in the tightest imaginable semi-final against South Africa. A drop goal of rare accuracy followed by a strike, with no back lift, in the final after Australia chopped their lead to four with 10 minutes to play.
Instinct in Carter’s third World Cup finally delivered William Webb Ellis. Who else can Ireland turn to in Tokyo and Yokohama when October comes knocking?
It begins today.
