The prospect of the Kearney brothers, Rob and Dave, facing the Gray brothers, Richie and Jonny, in Ireland's opening Six Nations match against Scotland next Sunday now seems remote as the younger Gray, Jonny, will captain Scotland A against England Saxons at home club Glasgow's Scotstoun Stadium on Friday next.
But secondrow Jonny will probably work his way on to the Scotland squad at some stage over the next seven weeks as interim coach Scott Johnson plays a holding game with the national team until Vern Cotter arrives from France in the summer.
"He's a wonderful player, a special player. You'll be talking about him in years to come," said Johnson of the 19-year-old. "So he's part of the growth and development of this Scottish nation."
Difficult to read
The measured tone of Johnson is difficult to read. He could believe Scotland are in the horrors or as his public voice says, preparing for the 2015 World Cup. But these are hard days for Scotland and Johnson has yet to prove his optimism has a sound basis.
Like Italy, Scotland have yet to win a Six Nations Championship. But in the years preceding this century they won 14 Five Nations Championships to Ireland’s 11.
It goes deeper. Not alone have they not won even a Six Nations Triple Crown, they have excelled at winning the wooden spoon, claiming three since Italy joined the championship in 2000.
There are more benchmarks that could freeze over Kirkcaldy. Of the 13 Calcutta matches Scotland have played against England since 2000, they have won just three, in 2000, 2006 and 2008.
While they have strong, athletic backs their ability to score is measured modestly and in all of their Six Nations matches since 2000 they have scored 81 tries, one less than Italy and less than half Ireland’s 172. For over 10 years they have lacked a cutting edge.
Andy Robinson promised a new era, having steered Edinburgh to second in the then Magners League, when he took over from Frank Hadden in 2009. But in three years he could not lift the team from the annual scramble at the bottom and just over a year ago he fell on his sword, thoroughly demoralised, after a humbling defeat by Tonga in Aberdeen.
At the end of last year Robinson spoke about Scotland’s chances in this tournament and like Johnson, his opinion was qualified by highlighting the chasm of difference between potential and actual performance.
Scotland have been able to raise their performance and last year beat Ireland 12-8 at Murrayfield, all the points coming from the boot of Greig Laidlaw, a counterpoint to Paddy Jackson, whose difficult day was ended when he was replaced after three missed kicks.
But Scotland have failed to rise consistently.
“I was at the Australia game (November) and thought that the team played very, very well,” said Robinson recently. “Watching the Six Nations last year and the great performance against Ireland and comfortable win against Italy showed what this side can do.
“But it’s about getting that consistency every time against the very best,” he said.
“The side has shown over the past few years they can play very good rugby but it’s about finishing teams off, and that is in the players’ hands because they have the ability to do that. It’s about taking the right opportunities at the right times.”
Ireland could ponder the same question and may look at the closing minutes of November's match against the All Blacks to understand Scotland's enduring frustration.
Fracas
The pessimists could look at last year and see four Scottish international players who were involved in a fracas in a Glasgow fast food outlet. The players involved were Ryan Grant, Sean Maitland, Ryan Wilson and Rory Hughes; Grant and Maitland were part of the British and Irish Lions tour last summer.
They could also look at their coach Cotter, still contracted to Clermont until the end of the season. The 51-year-old was supposed to fly in to Scotland tomorrow to assist with the opening game in Dublin against fellow Kiwi and one time Clermont colleague Joe Schmidt. That won’t now happen because of a family issue.
They could even look at the parasitic worms destroying the Murrayfield turf.
But Johnson is unperturbed and at the launch of the Six Nations last week in London hinted again that Scotland will patiently play a long ball game without rushing players through.
“We’ll always make sure they are equipped to do it physically. We don’t want to go to a gunfight with a water pistol,” said Johnson, echoing former Leinster coach Matt Williams’ well-worn phrase.
“We’re not the finished article and we get that. What we need is a good base to pick from, and good mileage on the clock by the time we get to the World Cup.”
Scotland come into the series missing established names such as the injured Tim Visser, Alaistair Kellock and tighthead prop Euan Murray, while Cotter takes over as head coach on June 1st, the day the team fly to Houston to begin their summer Test schedule against the United States.
The Kearneys will, probably, at some point meet the Grays. By that time the Scotland evolution under Cotter should be well advanced. This week in Aviva Stadium, that fraught journey begins.
