Anger is an unreliable guide to action; it is not informed by wisdom. What ratio of anger over wisdom do Ireland need to call upon this weekend?
The last time the All Blacks visited Dublin, they were seething after suffering defeat in Chicago and the actions of at least one New Zealand player could have resulted in a visit from An Garda Síochána.
Do Ireland now need to get angry themselves? Or, as is there any room in elite modern rugby for emotion? Former Australia captain George Gregan is one past great who doesn’t think so.
That might sound frosty but I believe it is appropriate now where another emotion is more beneficial to our journey this weekend.
‘Learned helplessness’ is a phrase I came across this week. It is at the core of important theories and ideas in psychology and foundational concepts in positive psychology in elite military units such as the Irish Army Ranger Wing.
What is positive about being shivering, starving, sleep deprived before being ‘asked’ to perform at the elite level?
Rory Best standing on the touchline against Argentina or New Zealand having missed a lineout throw moments earlier must be akin to executing the most demanding of military actions under duress. Is there a worse place to be? Yes!
Ask wonder boy All Black Damian McKenzie how often he's been helpless, such as for Chris Ashton's try last Saturday. Not often. Has he learned?
I've been really looking forward to the All Blacks arrival and specifically their use of their left wing, Rieko Ioane, as a finisher and the interaction between Beauden Barrett and McKenzie to expose Ireland's defence. Kieran Marmion, in particular, could come under pressure in Ireland's defensive line (away from the neutral ruck position).
All last season Murray positioned himself at the tail of the defensive line, often 40 metres away from the action with no one at home behind the rucks. This places huge pressure around the fringes and on the backfield, which is covered by Rob Kearney and one winger leaving lots of space. How will the All Blacks expose this?
They’ve essentially picked two outhalves in Barrett and McKenzie where, because it’s foreign to Ireland, I’ll be fascinated in how they interchange. One minute offering on both sides of the ruck, the next, working together – especially in counterattack. Normally I watch opposing players but tomorrow it’ll be teammates Barrett and McKenzie manipulating the ball and Ireland.
Controlled possession
And that’s where Irish wisdom must come into play. England’s opening try from Ashton was a brilliant team play, tricking McKenzie into leaving his left-hand defensive corner in a classically simple English rewind from Ben Youngs to Ashton whilst the entire English team ran the other way!
How can Ireland manipulate McKenzie?
Structurally we know how New Zealand set up but they adjusted in Twickenham. This may have been down to the weather conditions but their classic 1-3-3-1 system was not so classic and England’s attack tricked them.
To have a chance against the All Blacks, like Los Pumas, it is vital to accomplish two things. First, have more controlled possession; akin to last week’s 67 per cent, which suited Ireland’s rucking style and when not in possession slow down the ball carrier and ball recycle. This is my fear as Argentina were not overly impacted by our breakdown.
The key possession stats are clear; the All Black bench (last 20) are designed to go for it ball in hand and carve up sides and like Leinster are comfortable with less possession.
So, the All Black ball carrier must hit the deck more often than the Irish ball carrier. Double hit; e.g. chop tackle (Dan Leavy) with effective jackal (Peter O’Mahony) who survives the washout long enough to slow down Aaron Smith. Having both Iain Henderson and Tadhg Beirne on the bench would have helped!
Finally, on the wisdom of the team selection; Devin Toner starts; not because he's the best in the air but because of the wisdom he brings to lineout management. The modern professional game has been cleaned up hugely where our expectations are of slick outcomes; a slow scrum infuriates those who don't see its fundamental beauty.
The lineout is harder to manage where the environment changes constantly. Los Pumas had three secondrows in play; Ireland went to six-man lineouts to limit this aspect. Ireland had more than enough quality lineout targets, O’Mahony, Henderson and James Ryan. So where did the lineouts struggle.
The answer can be found in the Jacob Stockdale lineout when he stood at one, then circled around expecting pop pass but the ball was spilled in transfer. The system broke down.
But that doesn’t explain the missed targets in earlier lineouts. It was a system breakdown too, but of a different calibre. Lineout strategy must be managed. But time, field position and the scoreboard all feed into lineout management and this is where recent experiences can help. Has Best learned?
All week, along with Toner, he’ll be providing methodologies of minimising detrimental impacts on the lineout. That said, the trajectory of the flight is crucial where the arc of flight can still beat the opposition who’ve guessed right in landing down on top of the target opposed to flatlining towards the target.
Best arcing the ball over Brodie Retallick is a huge throwing skill; that is why wisdom will always beat anger!
PS. Martin Seligman’s TED Talk on Positive Psychology is worth a view.
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