Follow that!
To an entirely new team falls the impossible task of emulating in any way, shape or form, the historic and remarkable if somewhat overdue first win over the All Blacks last Saturday in Chicago.
That it is such a new, comparatively inexperienced but most of all remodelled and untried team, and also at home to a team ranked 18th in the world almost puts them in an impossible position. Yet its newness could also be its strength.
To put this in context, a fully loaded, creative and sharp Ireland put Canada to the sword in the last World Cup in the Millennium and that they even retain three of that starting side is due to Peter O'Mahony and Seán O'Brien returning from long-term injures and Keith Earls from suspension. The only other member of the starting team who is in double-digits for test starts is Cian Healy.
By comparison, Canada retain seven of their starting team from that 50-7 beating in the Millennium Stadium, and not only are slightly older (average 28 compared to Ireland's 27, with debutant Billy Holland the team's oldest player at 31) but have way more caps, 384 in their starting team as against Ireland's 290. What's more, 98 of the latter tally have been won off the bench, with the starting XV boasting 198 test starts.
Three Connachtmen
Not only are there three test debutants in the starting team, but another three Connachtmen – Finlay Bealham, Ultan Dillane and Kieran Marmion – will be making their first test starts, while another Connacht man, Tiernan O'Halloran, will be making his home test debut. And the finishing team is liable to feature another five test debutants.
Hence there are bound to be mistakes, and there simply couldn’t be the same cohesion and sharpness in execution from a week ago or indeed that last World Cup meeting.
"It's really hard to say result-wise," said Joe Schmidt, when asked what would be a good day at the office. "It's just performance-wise, are we really solid at set-piece? Can the changes in the pack deliver a really solid scrum and give us a platform we need, because with that you can do things. And I think that was evident on Saturday."
“Can we get some lineout pressure on them and can we make sure we look after our own? You only have to look at the scoring in the second half when we got three of theirs (New Zealand lineouts), and they got two of ours. In the first half, the scoring was 25-8 in our favour. In the second half in the period they got those two lineouts, one of the lineout steals they scored straight off, after a few phases.”
“So how good will our set-piece be, with these guys coming in, and not having had a lot of time to get fairly comfortable with each other? How effective can we be defensively, and making sure that we don’t give them too much time and space to play, because that’s something that was probably evident last week? When they did get some time at all, they looked really dangerous.”
Strong ball carriers
It was a view echoed by defence coach Andy Farrell. Noting Canada's "big strong ball carrier," he added: "If you look at the two wingers, DTH van der Merwe and Taylor Paris, they're as good as anything. They're strong. They're experienced. The forward pack, they challenge you. They come off the base of the scrum. The prop forwards can carry hard. The two centres are big, strong ball-carrying centres that are going to test us."
“They will want to get over that gain line. When they get into your 22, they’re a threat. They have a big, heavy pack. It is going to be a tough test. We’ve got to be on the ball for 80 minutes.”
Referencing a try by Taylor Paris in ProD2 from behind his own goal-line, Schmidt concluded: “Finally, can we put together a few phases of play that put them under real pressure and help create opportunities for us? Can we finish those? Can we make sure that we accumulate points when we get those opportunities?”
Ultimately it will be a surprise if this new Irish team, given a reasonably set-piece platform, don’t have a few tries in them. Nor will they lack for motivation. Opportunity knocks on a huge scale for players to show they are back to their best, or there’s more to them than impact off the bench, or that they can play in this more rarefied air.
To that end, the mood music within the squad this week must be exceptional, with the Saturday night kick-off and near full house adding to the energy that this squad is sure to bring.
It should actually be very interesting.
IRELAND: T O'Halloran (Connacht); C Gilroy (Ulster), G Ringrose (Leinster), L Marshall (Ulster), K Earls (Munster); P Jackson (Ulster), K Marmion (Connacht); C Healy (Leinster), S Cronin (Leinster), F Bealham (Connacht), Ultan Dillane (Connacht), B Holland (Munster), P O'Mahony (Munster) (capt), S O'Brien (Leinster), J O'Donoghue (Munster).
Replacements: J Tracy (Leinster), D Kilcoyne (Munster), J Ryan (Munster), D Ryan (Munster), D Leavy (Leinster), L McGrath (Leinster), J Carbery (Leinster), N Adeolokun (Connacht).
CANADA: M Evans (Cornish Pirates); DTH van der Merwe (Scarlets), C Trainor (BC Bears), C Hearn (London Irish), TParis (Agen), C Braid (BC Bears), G McRorie (Prairie Wolf Pack); D Sears-Duru (Glasgow Warriors/Ontario Blues), R Barkwill (Ontario Blues), J Ilnicki (BC Bears), B Beukeboom (Cornish Pirates), E Olmstead (Newcastle Falcons/Prairie Wolf Pack), K Baillie (Atlantic Rock), L Rumball (Ontario Blues), A Carpenter (Cornish Pirates/Ontario Blues, capt).
Replacements: E Howard (Ontario Blues), R Brouwer (Ontario Blues), M Tierney (Ontario Blues), A Cejvanovic (BC Bears), M Heaton (Atlantic Rock), P Mack (BC Bears), P Parfrey (Atlantic Rock), N Blevins (Prairie Wolf Pack).
Referee: Marius van der Westhuizen (South Africa)
Previous meetings: (1987) Canada 19 Ireland 46 (RWC, NZ). (1997) Ireland 33 Canada 0. (2000) Canada 27 Ireland 27. (2008) Ireland 55 Canada 0. (2009) Canada 6 Ireland 25. (2013) Canada 14 Ireland 40. (2015) Ireland 50 Canada 7.
Betting (Paddy Powers) 1/100 Ireland, 100/1 Draw, 22/1 Canada. Handicap odds (Canada +36pts) 10/11 Ireland, 22/1 Draw, 10/11 Canada.
Forecast: Ireland to win, but not to cover the handicap.
