Entering last year's Six Nations, France were the unbeaten form team from November and were favourites for the title. Wales were winless in the autumn and an opening day loss to Ireland extended their losing run to seven, with Rob Howley in temporary charge as Warren Gatland was on Lions' duty. So much for November form. So much for 'momentum'.
Six weeks later France, having lost to Italy on the opening weekend, finished last despite salvaging a last-day win at home to Scotland, while Wales were winning their fourth game on the spin courtesy of a 30-3 thrashing of England which enabled them to retain their crown on points difference. This time around it looks as open as it’s ever been between the top four. The bookies can scarcely split Wales, England and France atop the betting, with Ireland just behind at 11/2. The flip side of that coin is not just that only one can win the 2014 Six Nations outright, but at least one of that quartet will finish in the bottom half, as Ireland and France discovered last year when finishing fifth and sixth.
“It’s wide open between those top four teams,” says Warren Gatland, the coach of back-to-back champions Wales and the successful Lions’ tour. “It’s been the same way for the last six years or so, and for each of those four teams Italy and Scotland are potential banana skins.”
As a coach steeped in European rugby, Gatland is as much a Six Nations fan as a Six Nations coach. “I think it’s always a great tournament and always exciting. The thing about the Six Nations is that with its history it’s not a game, it’s an event. It’s a weekend. You go there on a Friday for a Saturday match and you’re walking around town, and nowhere else in the world in international rugby apart from Six Nations do you have 30 to 40 per cent of the fans being away supporters.
"And that's what creates the atmosphere, and it's bragging rights for a year. If you go to Auckland to watch the All Blacks play South Africa, 95 per cent of the crowd are All Blacks' supporters. It's not the same."
Heated fallout
Wales' two away games take them to Dublin and London, where he has previously coached Ireland and Wasps, and despite the heated fallout in Ireland from Gatland's decision not to pick Brian O'Driscoll for the third Lions' Test, he is looking forward to that weekend as much as ever.
“We made the decision. I thought Brian, in the way he handled it, was fantastic,” he said, and repeated the huge sense of debt he owes Irish rugby for the opportunities afforded him coaching Connacht at 32 and Ireland at 34, and the “fantastic” times and memories he, Trudy and their two kids have from those days.
“I don’t forget those things. It gave me the opportunity and experience to have the success I’ve had as a coach, and I wouldn’t have been able to do that without the opportunities that Ireland gave me.
“The whole Brian O’Driscoll thing, and the decision I made, it still doesn’t mean you don’t question those decisions. I still say ‘was that the right call? Was that the right decision?’ It’s part of coaching, isn’t it? It’s part of learning, isn’t it? And as coaches we make mistakes as well, like everyone else.”
Their stillborn, Shauna, was born in Ireland, while their son, Bryn learned to talk in Ireland. “He developed a really strong Irish accent for a long time, and Gabby had an Irish accent but toward the end of our time in London she picked up an English accent.”
One afternoon in London after school, Trudy took Bryn and Gabby to a café. After about 15 minutes, a woman sitting nearby came over to their table and said: “Excuse me, I don’t wish to be rude but I’ve been listening to your kids’ talking and can ask you a question?”
“Of course,” said Trudy.
"How do you have a son with an Irish accent and a daughter with an English accent, and you've got a New Zealand accent? How did that happen?"
"That's a true story," says Gatland, who has come a long way since, presiding over two Grand Slams with Wales, and helpfully for him and them going into next weekend's opening matches, the coaching ticket and squad are very settled. They have the huge prize of becoming the first team to win three consecutive titles outright in the history of the tournament, allowing for the fact that the title was shared prior to the 90s without recourse to points' differential.
'Some confidence'
"No one has ever won three-in- a-row. It's kind of nice to come into camp with that at the back of your mind, and something you can speak about because you're not coming into camp and thinking 'what's the focus for this Six Nations?' and trying to build them up and give them some confidence. They're coming in thinking 'we've been Six Nations champions for the last two years, we believe in ourselves'. And we haven't got too many injuries so we're kind of in a good place."
Yet in many respects they shouldn't be. There was much gnashing of teeth in Ireland last November when Johnny Sexton's abbreviated off-season and pre-season led to him playing twice as many matches for Racing as he would normally have done for Leinster entering the November window, obliging Joe Schmidt to rest him for the Samoan game before he failed to see out the All Blacks' game.
Wales have four of their Six Nations squad on Top 14 duty this weekend – Mike Phillips, Dan Lydiate, Jamie Roberts and James Hook – and next season will have 10 players in exile after Leigh Halfpenny's eye-wateringly lucrative move to Toulon was confirmed on Thursday, yet it doesn't seem to be that much of a hindrance to them. "It's not the most ideal situation but if they can negotiate full release (for international rugby) we can handle that," says Gatland. "I can't speak for Johnny Sexton and I can't speak for Ireland, but the French-based guys know when they come into us that there are going to be a couple of hard weeks' training. They look after themselves pretty good and normally when they come in they are in good shape."
They have lost Ian Evans to suspension along with Ryan Jones to injury, while there are question marks about the form and/or match hardness of several frontline players, notably Jonathan Davies and captain Sam Warburton.
Contact session
Warburton was due to have his first contact session yesterday, and they will assess him over the weekend before deciding whether to start him against Italy, name him on the bench or give him an LV Cup game with Cardiff Blues. The expectation is that Davies won't return until their third game at home to France but Gatland is non-committal about this, thus hinting at a swifter return.
There’s also been speculation in the Welsh media that they are a little thin in midfield and the back three if an injury or two struck as so many fringe players are currently sidelined. “Not at all,” says Gatland,” “because we know we’ve got Jamie Roberts and Scott Williams, and ‘Foxy’ (Davies) is not too far away. We’ve also got (James) Hook, who’s played quite a lot in midfield.” There’s also the option of using the phenomenal North at outside centre.
Adam Jones, a rock around which the Slams of ‘08 and ‘12 and last year’s title were built – playing in all but one of those 15 matches – doesn’t appear to be the same force of yore with the new scrummaging regulations.
“I think the way the new scrum laws have gone, the dominance of the tighthead has gone away and it’s led to a lot more parity,” observes Gatland. “I think the high value of tightheads has, almost overnight, gone down.
As last year highlighted when it took them 50 minutes to get going in their opening match against Ireland, Wales tend to grow stronger as November windows and especially Six Nations progress, whereas they can be at their most vulnerable starting out.
“Definitely,” admits Gatland. “For whatever reason we have tended to be a little bit slow in the way we have started, and we have got stronger the longer the campaign has gone on, whether it’s the autumn or the Six Nations. Sometimes it’s about a couple of wins and a bit of confidence and momentum as well.”
France have won the last four post-Lions’ championships and, conscious of the cumulative effect of last season’s demands on his Welsh front-liners, who were bulk suppliers to the Lions, Gatland gave four or five of his injured players a holiday in November.
“Whether that works or not I don’t know but it’s something we’ve definitely been conscious of,” says Gatland. “This will be the test, and it will be the same again in four years. That first game between France and England is a big one. If France win that at home, that sets them up quite nicely for a big championship.”
Keeping their squad of 23 out of Top 14 duty last week should help les bleus, even if the scale of foreign imports “makes it really tough” for Philippe Saint-André, “and potentially, with this new TV deal, it might even get worse”.
Even Gatland was taken him back by the scale with which Toulon outbid both the WRU and Cardiff Blues for Halfpenny, with the French club reportedly doubling the latter's €425,000 offer per year with a deal worth €1.8 million over two years. "We just couldn't compete really," says Gatland.
Kick-off at home
Wales kick-off at home to Italy, but Gatland notes that the Azzurri have actually slightly more experience man-for-man than his side. "They're always tough to play and I think (Mauro) Bergamasco coming back will be a big boost for them. You can't underestimate them. If they get a couple of penalties and a try they're in the game and you know you're in a war then."
Ireland have Scotland up first. “Again, they’re going to be tough, but they could potentially lack a little bit of that X factor. As a coach, you’re looking for those players with X factor and we’re lucky enough at the moment in that we feel we have got two or three people who can do that, can change a game or score a try out of nothing. But Scotland are a tough team. They’ll be hard to put away. They’ll be well drilled and pretty good at set-pieces.”
As for Ireland, Gatland ventures: “Joe is probably realising that when you get into international rugby it’s not like a provincial or club side. It takes time, and when you’re together and you’ve a game next week you’re thinking: ‘I’ve got to prioritise about the information I’m trying to get through and what are the important changes I want to make, because I can’t do them all at once.’ It’s a process.”
Ireland are, he reckons, as hard to call as anyone. “Obviously they were poor against Australia but the turnaround, in terms of that performance against the All Blacks, was excellent. But then the All Blacks had probably made six or seven changes, so it’s a hard one to read really.”
Gatland does envisage Ireland mirroring Leinster. “They’ll definitely have the licence for the ‘9’ to tap and go, and play that high-tempo game, and with Ireland as well the players have got to be coming in with a massive amount of confidence. Two teams are in the Heineken Cup quarter-finals at home and a third playing away from home which has dominated Europe for the last four or five years. The players should have a huge amount of self belief.”
