And then there was one, so thank heavens for Leinster. In fact, one could go further, and give praise to Glasgow too, given these are ominous times for the Irish provinces and the Celts and Italians in general at the European table.
Leinster go to Wasps for a Pool 2 decider at the Ricoh Arena in Coventry, knowing that a win will secure qualification and a home quarter-final. A defeat would leave them sweating on the four other pools, albeit a losing bonus point would probably secure them an away quarter-final as one of the three best runner-ups. Leinster could even go through if losing by more than seven points, most likely on the proviso that Saracens don’t beat Clermont the next day.
It’s worth noting a change to the qualifying rules this season, for in the event of two sides from different pools finishing level on points, their ranking is decided firstly by points difference and then tries scored, rather than the other way around. Hence, this seriously reduces the threat to Leinster (18 points and a difference of +47) from Leicester (13 points and +1), even though they have the same number of tries.
Northampton and Racing Metro, who meet at Franklin’s Gardens later on Saturday, are both virtually certain to go through after hoovering up 19 match points and 27 tries in their four games against Treviso. Pool 4 also looks like providing two qualifiers, if Toulouse and Bath win away to Montpellier and at home to Glasgow.
Real hopes
Glasgow are the only other Pro12 side of the dozen still in contention for a last-eight place, with three French and six English still harbouring real hopes of qualification, as well as the champions Toulon (who have already done so). But Glasgow have to win in Bath to have any chance, and may need a bonus point as well.
Were Leinster not to make the last eight, it would be the first time in 17 seasons without any Irish representation in the knock-out stages. Were Glasgow also not to make it, it would be the first season in the 20 years of the European Cup without any Celtic side in the knock-out stages. The ensuing Anglo-French carve-up would be hailed by those in Premiership Rugby (PRL) and Ligue Nationale de Rugby (LNR) who agitated for change on the “might is right” basis, and who see this as the natural order of things.
It shouldn't come to that. Leinster should go through, and in truth the Pro12 champions are probably the only viable contenders to win the Champions Cup from that league, with last season's beaten finalists Glasgow the next best.
If a little unfairly, past achievements were torn up with the old rankings system, and final league standings last season instead determined seeding in this year's pool stages, as they will next season. Hence, Munster and Ulster were punished for falling away in the league with tougher draws, including Clermont and Toulon, whereas Leinster had Castres.
The two French heavyweights each completed doubles over their Irish rivals, and between them have now won nine matches in a row against Irish sides over the past three seasons. Compare and contrast with Castres’ defending against Leinster – notably the imitation of tag rugby for Sean Cronin’s bonus point try.
Millionaires
Nevertheless, if Leinster obtain a home quarter-final, and are closer again to full-strength in April, they will be contenders. This isn’t liable to change any time soon, and with the advent of millionaire benefactors (ie those belonging to the 1 per cent club identified by Oxfam who will imminently own more than the planet’s other 99 per cent put together) and new subscription-based entities such as BT and beIN Sport, money talks more loudly than ever in rugby.
There surely could be few more appropriate examples of this than the sight of George North, Northampton's marquee signing, running in his try against the Ospreys at the Liberty Stadium. What's more, as the Anglo-French slice of the European cake is set to grow in years to come, the more monied French and English clubs are liable to become wealthier.
Leinster, with their conveyor belt from the schools game and as a capital city club with seemingly more access to private backing than their Irish counterparts, look best equipped to compete with the French and English heavy-hitters; witness them bringing Johnny Sexton home and retaining Jamie Heaslip and Sean O'Brien.
Another consequence of all this is that BT have also beaten Sky out the gate. As BT have first refusal on all games involving the English sides, they have all three pool deciders next weekend – Wasps v Leinster, Northampton v Racing and Clermont v Saracens – as well as the knock-out battle between Bath and Glasgow, and even Harlequins’ bid for glory away to Castres.
Dead rubbers
By contrast, Sky have all three dead rubbers (Munster v Sale, alas, Scarlets v Toulon and Treviso v Ospreys) with Leicester’s pursuit of a bonus point win in Ravenhill and Toulouse’s attempt to win Pool 4 by beating a disinterested Montpellier their only games of any tangible meaning.
The latter two games are also on beIN sport, with the only other televised Champions Cup game in France being Clermont v Saracens, which is also the only game on terrestrial TV this weekend (FR2, as well as beIN Sport). No wonder the competition makes such comparatively lesser impact on the French rugby psyche than the Top 14. In any event, much like the offices of PRL and LNR, one can almost hear the clinking of glasses in BT.
gthornley@irishtimes.com
